Lies, damned lies and Greek opinion polls

Yesterday the world's financial markets rose like a helium balloon on the news that weekend opinion polls in Greece showed that the conservative, pro-memorandum party, New Democracy was ahead. Even the Athens Stock Exchange got a respite from a nosedive that has seen its index fall to figures last seen in the 1990s.

There are many possible explanations for New Democracy's reversal of fortunes. Antonis Samaras has been building a conservative coalition and perhaps many voters who would have voted for smaller right wing parties are now transferring their votes to him as the only viable centre right alternative to SYRIZA.

On the other hand the constant barrage of predictions on TV about possible exit from the Eurozone has frightened older voters who fear their life savings will evaporate should the drachma be reintroduced and so perhaps signals a swing back to more mainstream politics.

Yet, according to an insightful analysis there may be another more concrete reason for the sudden challenge to the popularity of Radical Left Coalition (SYRIZA). In the opinion of Greek blogger, Alepouda there is a systematic bias in polls conducted in Greece with the upshot that means that estimates of SYRIZA's share of the vote are wildly off. The most inaccurate being a GPO poll carried out for the current affairs programme, Anatropes on MEGA TV on the 25th April, just weeks before the 6th May elections. According to the poll SYRIZA was predicted to get 6.2% whilst the final election result was 16.78%. Strangely, the results for both PASOK and New Democracy were less than 2% off.

Nor is this anomaly limited to GPO, other pollsters have revealed similar deviations in their estimates of SYRIZA's electoral strength. Indeed, according to Alepouda's infographics the average result opinion poll researchers claimed for SYRIZA was 9.1%, more than 7 percentage points lower than their final figure. In the case of all other political parties the difference was less than 1%.

How to explain such  amazing accuracy in the case of every other party apart from SYRIZA? Statistically, there seems to be no logical explanation for such a large error. On the other hand, more sceptically minded commentators might be left with the impression that the media war being waged upon Greek parties opposed to austerity measures is not limited to the mainstream press but has extended to those companies that rely on such media outlets for their very survival.

Greeks losing faith in their leaders

Greek trade unions in anti-government march - Thessaloniki, originally uploaded by Teacher Dude's BBQ.

According to a new opinion poll carried out by Public Issue confidence in the present government and the political system in general is in freefall. Just 18% of Greeks believe that the country is on the right track, (down from 38% in February) and that 84% of those polled are unhappy with the state of democracy, a figure that is reflected in approval ratings for the two major parties, PASOK and New Democracy who scored 18% and 9% respectively.

Will Greek government be able to implement austerity package?

The streets of Thessaloniki are full of kids carrying bunches of flowers to take home since today is Mother's day here in Greece. It's strange to be strolling with my daughter along streets that just a few days ago looked like scenes out of a war movie with phalanxes of riot police charging protesters and the air heavy with the stench of tear gas and burning plastic.

Yet the calmness is deceptive and belays the fact that people here are extremely angry over the latest developments concerning the IMF-EU brokered bailout deal, and despite the concerted efforts of the country's media and especially the main TV stations not convinced that the massive cuts in incomes and public spending are the inevitable price Greece will have to pay to stop the slide into bankcruptcy. In a poll carried out by VPRC 55% of those asked said that they supported the idea of renegotiating the terms of the debt repayment whilst nearly a third wanted a stop on payments altogether. Similarly, the May 4th poll carried out by Public Issue on behalf of the Greek newspaper, Kathimerini on Sunday found that 66% of Greeks were against the measures. (it should be noted that opinion polls carried out for the Vima and Naytemporiki papers found exactly the opposite figures).



Once again despite what Prime minister Giorgos Papadreou may declare to fellow EU leaders at meetings in Brussels there is absoluely no popular support for the current measues and that the tactic of bypassing constititional and legal objections as part of their imposition is simply fanning the flames of disdent. Reform by diktat is not going to win over many hearts or minds here in Greece and is rapidly dismantling what little consensus exists within the country.

There is also the growing fear that even if the measures announced are enforced there is no guarantee that the sacrifices will bear any kind of fruit. If the rest of the world thinks that the Greek people are simply going to may down and play dead in order that Wall Street/The City/ Franfkfurt can sleep easier at night is in for a terrible shock. The month long wave of riots and revolt that struck Greece in December 2008 following the death of 15 year old Alexander Grigoropoulos was the work of Greece's youth to alarge extent. Current dissatisfaction with the political and economic system covers a much wider segment of the population and is likely to be even more bitter as millions slide into poverty and despair.



One only has to see the example of IMF intervention in Argentina to see the likely social effects of an austerity package which may last for a decade and may nothing but the chance of better macroeconomic statistics at the cost of untold human misery.

Κώστας Καραμανλής - Costas Karamanlis

Κώστας Καραμανλής - Costas Karamanlis , originally uploaded by Teacher Dude's BBQ.

Last night I attended the party rally held by the ruling conservative New Democracy party in the centre of Thessaloniki. With just days to go before the national elections on Sunday Prime minister Costas Karamanlis tried to fire up the troops and claw back some of the party's crumbling support. However, even traditional safe seats such as A Thessaloniki seem to slipping from New Democracy's grasp as voters sick of the government's handling of the economy and tired of their constant stream of scandals and cock ups turn their back on them.

Karamanlis went on about the opposition PASOK party's lack of responsibility, strange for a guy who turned up over an hour late for his own gig.

Although Greek law now says that I am not allowed to publish the results of the most recent opinion polls (a piece of legislation quickly cooked up by New Democracy when its polling figures started heading south) those outlaws at the Wall Street Journal appear to have no such qualms. But you didn't hear there here, did you?