Hey Folks! It is another year of pretty bad nominees, but some of them are cool so we'll roll with that. We could follow the trades, whatever those are, but really that's the coward's way out. HERE we have now for you, Norwegian Morning Wood's OFFICIAL 2023 146th Annual Oscar Predictions.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
This could go a few ways for sure, but lately the Academy has just had this absolutely boffo streak like The Shape of Water (2017), Parasite (2019), and Nomadland (2020). My biggest disappointment is that I don't want Everything to ever become a mainstream movie. It's so fun and original and niche and weird, I'd love to keep it all to our weird selves. It's wacky that it's gotten this traction, but perhaps even the Academy is getting more niche and wrapping in on itself? There are insane nominees here - Elvis, Triangle of Sadness, Top Gun: Maverick? It's a fun lot. Inisherin might upset, but I just don't see it.
Best Director
The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg
Tár, Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Östlund
Predicted Winner: Kwan and Scheinert
Best Director doesn't seem to line up with Best Picture that often, and it might to to Spielberg, but that just feels cheap, you know? Probably. There's a case for everyone here. Field makes films rarely enough that they could think to give it to him while it's out. McDonagh has done well in recent years but notably didn't for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017), so maybe that's rectified here? But I think in cases of insular weirdness, just like the aforementioned three weird BP winners above, the awards align.
Best Actor
Austin Butler in Elvis
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Paul Mescal in Aftersun
Bill Nighy in Living
Predicted Winner: Colin Farrell
Everyone is saying Fraser or Butler and the latter is deserving, but I'm going with the curveball. He had a ridiculous year and I don't think the Academy actually gives out those Comeback awards as often as we think they do. Butler could easily get this, they love biopics for some reason, but man Elvis is just so damn weird. I want to stick with my Farrell pick.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett in Tár
Ana de Armas in Blonde
Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie
Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Winner: Yeoh
This could easily be Blanchett, but I think she nuked herself when she started talking about how she doesn't care about awards. And Yeoh is perfectly deserving and has momentum. I'm pumped for Ana de Armas, she really did a triumphant job in Blonde, but that just doesn't seem to have caught on with...much of anyone besides me. I sure would love to see her win against Michelle Williams who was nominated for playing Marilyn Monroe ten years ago and lost. Also, how the hell did that definitely a scam Andrea Riseborough campaign actually work?!
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway
Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Winner: Quan
It just feels like it's in the bag for big child actor and then retired Ke Huy Quan. Is it messed up that Short Round will get an Oscar and not Indy? I'd really love to see Keoghan, I loved EEAAO but c'mon the acting in Banshees is absurd. I actually don't think Quan is all that super great, I guess he switches personas effortlessly, but Hsu, Yeoh, and even Curtis are the big names here. And yeah, they're all nominated, too so that's cool.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau in The Whale
Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Winner: Bassett
Man it'd be fun for Jamie Lee Curtis to finally get an Oscar. Although she really hasn't been in that many films that stretched her acting muscles, just a huge unrecognized generational talent. Of course if anyone were to beat her, no one's more deserving than Angela Bassett, who after a bit of a slump through the early 2000s has come back doing ridiculously great work in the past decade. She's also incredibly deserving and I'm a huge fan, it'll be fun to see!
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: Banshees
This feels right, especially if it's snubbed elsewhere. It really is a marvelous screenplay, it lacks the didactic pretension of Tar, and I haven't seen the rest. EEAAO might sweep and nab it, but it feels like it should go here. Plus, McDonagh's films haven't actually won this despite building a great following over the years.
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Predicted Winner: Western Front
I don't actually know here, man. Glass Onion and Maverick seem way too mainstream. Living and Women Talking seem way too obscure. Also, who thinks Top Gun has a great screenplay? It lacks all iconic lines of the original and has the most insanely convenient ending of all time. Am I the only one who thought it wasn't that great?! Give it all the awards in the world for cinematography and production design, but it's not a great or unique story, man. Okay, it's efficient, sure. I'd be shocked but also like "of course." if it wins. Quiet is left, so let's go with that.
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Maverick
I dunno. Tar doesn't even have editing. Elvis is nothing but editing and Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) won a few years ago for much less. Everything certainly has a lot and it's integral to the story. Banshees it's not super apparent. Maybe that's the ticket! Top Gun maybe, it's definitely a feat to to cobble together all that footage. It seems to be leading and again, with other technical snubs, maybe this is a "good enough" kind of category for it.
Best Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Predicted Winner: Pinocchio
Is it possible? It's definitely the best one. And the most uniquely animated. It's the forerunner right now. I haven't seen Beast or Puss yet, but I hear they're good. I don't like that shell fucker. Turning Red was solid but not really exceptional. Maybe the Del Toro name slapped on this film is critical to remind folks of its pedigree and we definitely went Pinocchio crazy for some reason this year. It seems like a safe bet.
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
Predicted Winner: Quiet
I thought Argeninta, 1985 would be the lock, but it's kind of that deal where, why wouldn't they vote for the one film who is also nominated in a ton of other categories. Seems like a no brainer I wonder if we'll get tripped up.
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Predicted Winner: Quiet
Dude, like, these all suck. No Top Gun, Blonde, Nope, Don't Worry Darling, Barbarian? Whatever, man. Just seemed like a ton of beautiful movies released this year. 1917 (2020) JUST won this, will the differentiate or is that a safe indication of trends? Or does it just go to Roger Deakins for Empire of Light? I can see it going to the flash and breathtaking Elvis. It's got to win something. Maybe. Let's hope that's editing and this goes again to Western Front, which just seems to follow trends right now and is the more traditional winner in this kind of category.
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Predicted Winner: Babylon
I haven't seen it. But it's apparently good? Sure. I can't picture the score of anything else.
Best Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It like a Woman
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Winner: "Naatu"
Now give RRR a best picture nod! This seems like the most in the bag category of the year, which is spectacular.
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Folks are saying Babylon, I just can't see that winning that much, people seem to hate that movie. That kinda leaves...Elvis? Or do we give awards for longest, not best these days. KIDDING AVAMAGAR, kidding.
Best Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Predicted Winner: Wakanda Forever
It won last time, so...sure? Nothing else is really creeping in. Maybe EEAAO. Lots and lots of creative and cool costumes there. But nothing really wild and from a different time or culture like Wakanda Forever.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All that Breathes
Fire of Love
Navalny
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Descendant
Predicted Winner: Fire of Love
Most of these sound cool. Beauty and Blood seems to be the frontrunner. But documentary always just goes to the one people have heard of, and that's clearly volcano love.
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: AVABAR
Listen, I give this movie a lot of crap but it should clearly win here. Maybe Top Gun because those effects are actually more impressive (real always wins), but people seem behind ABAMRAR.
SOUND
Top Gun Maverick
Avatar the Way of Water
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Avatar the Way of Water
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Predicted Winner: TOP GUN
Man, you never know. But those jets are sweet. And they had to record in those loud ass things, too. It's got to win something. War movies are always big here, too. We'll see where it ends up.
Best Animated Short
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
“The Flying Sailor” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
“Ice Merchants” Joao Gonzalez and Bruno Cactano
“My Year of Dicks” Sara Gunnarsdottir and Pamela Ribon
“An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It” Lachlan Pendragon
Predicted Winner: "Ostrich"
It's got a cool title. "Ice Merchants" is the other one that seems like it has a neat premise. Everything else is trash. Who knows.
Best Documentary Short“The Elephant Whisperers” Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
“Haulout” Evgeniaq Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
“How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
“Stranger at the Gate” Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Predicted Winner: Martha Mitchell
I dunno, relevance? Seems like the most interesting, and that's how I make these crapshoot predictions.
Best Live Action Short
“An Irish Goodbye” Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuaron
“Night Ride” Erik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
Best Live Action Short
“An Irish Goodbye” Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuaron
“Night Ride” Erik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
“The Red Suitcase” Cyrus Neshvad
Predicted Winner: Le Pupille
Comes from Cuaron, so there's pedigree and was on Disney+, so there's exposure. "Ivalu" and "Red Suitcase" seem cool and "An Irish Goodbye" is like the inverse Banshees of Inisherin. So lots to go on there, but let's be safe and stupid.
So there you have it! All 23 categories, perfectly predicted, stay tuned for the actual Oscar ceremony which will assuredly happen sometime in the future!