Showing posts with label Hollow Men. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hollow Men. Show all posts

Wednesday, 2 May 2018

"What does one do in politics if one has discarded the whole realm of ideas? One fights men." [Repost, with only the names changed]


The #DirtyPolitics saga has begun again, the scotching of rumours by the Police Commissioner this morning serving only to magnify their spread.

But as one twitterer asked: the government has numerous policy failures already. Why not go after those instead of the Prime Minister's partner? Perhaps, I answered (and as I've suggested before), because the policies of this government and the last are so similar, and their loudest critics have so little in the way of ideas, they have little else left to go after.

So, because all that's changed since is a change of the people in government, here's a repost from 2014 with only a few names and tenses changed: The #1 reason for #DirtyPolitics: The Intellectual Aridity of the Centre-Right.

Q: What's the real story here?
The real story here is ideology – or, to be precise, the lack of one.
If there is something that linked Jason Ede, Cactus Kate, Cameron Slater, Carrick Graham and all the others exposed in those emails stolen by Nicky Hager, it was the idea that ideas don’t matter. The same is now true with those spreading baseless political rumours: for them, politics is not about ideas; it is about people.  Our own versus theirs. Ideas don’t matter because, very simply, they don't have any.  
It’s not a battle for ideas, but a battle for scalps. They don’t attack the ideas of their opponents, they attack their opponents' character -- or partners. Thus they are led not to attacking, say, outrages against individual rights committed right out in the open, but to looking for dirt, however risible, that may be found somewhere in the shadows. The triviality of so many of the rumours reveals the level of the horizons of these folk trying to make the world safe for something they call the “centre-right.”
Part of the reason is that there is so little ideologically that divides the so-called “centre-left” and “centre-right” – certainly not at the last election, where either the two major parties as easily signed up to their opponents’ policies as their own, and when the ruling party has done precisely nothing in six years to overturn the flagship policies previously implemented by its opponents.
So when there is no battle of ideologies, all that's left is a battle of attack dogs. Oblivious to the process by which people form ideas, the dogs instead attack individual's scalps – ignoring that such attacks have no power except with those who already share their intellectually barren worldview.
If there is anything at all that links these people to Nixon and his White House Plumbers, it is this disinterest in ideas, and the consequent obsession with dirty tricks. 
Both the President and all the President’s Men who fell with him were ideologically vacant – guided not by ideas but by range of the moment reactions. This was a President who called for polls to decide whether or not to bomb Haiphong harbour, and then waited for the results while his minions worked to skew those very polls. A President whose chief domestic adviser confessed at the Watergate hearings that he should never be considered an “ideas man.” Whose adviser’s lieutenant, John Haldeman, “looked upon himself not as an 'issues' man but as a technician and organiser." 
For what use would ‘issues’ or ideas be to such people? For them, politics wasn’t a battle of ideas at all: it was a battle of warring political tribes. 
Ayn Rand explained these people and these other entities some years ago 
    As a rule, it is an accident whether the smart young intellectual wheeler-dealers .. turn to the Left or to the Right [as they enter politics]… 
It is not a matter of political principles. What principles? Pragmatism has taught them that there are no such things.
But the big dilemma for all the pragmatists of the Right, is: what are they to fight and by what means, if principles are inoperative? Politics is a field in which one deals with ideas and it requires the ability to argue, to discuss, to persuade. 
What does one do in politics if one has discarded the whole realm of ideas? One fights men. 
"One fights men." Just as Team Key’s bloggers did then, and Team Bridges's rumour-mongers do now -- just as Nixon’s young pragmatists did who bungled the burglary that exposed them all. All of them were all too happy to sign up to such a battle. 
Such ‘technicians’ [observed Ayn Rand] would know that one is supposed to fight, at election time. What would be a pragmatist's idea of a fight? Ideas—he has been taught—are impractical, it is only immediate events that count; what is true today, may not be true tomorrow; rigid values are childish, cynical ‘flexibility is mature. People—he has concluded—don't think; people are not interested in ideas, only in scandal, they do not care about the good, only about some sensational exposé of somebody's evil.  
“Thus the younger, more impatient pragmatists would come to believe that bugging, spying, burglary, in pursuit of somebody's scandalous personal secrets, are more effective than years of speechmaking about ‘issues.’ Pragmatism is a philosophy of action, of the ‘now. The mentality of the activists of the Left, becomes, on the Right, the mentality of the Watergate conspirators.”
And of today's rumour-mongers. For them, politics isn’t a battle of ideas; it is a battle of warring political tribes.
And tribalism, as an idea, is busted in every realm except this most odious. 
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Monday, 9 January 2017

#TopTen | #2: John Key had an unbelievable solution for affordable housing

 

Today I’m blogging last year’s second-most popular post here at EnZed’s fourth-most read political blog, with the strange tale that John Key not only knew that New Zealand had a problem of unaffordable housing, not only did he know the problem was urgent, but he had already announced an unbelievable solution to fix it.
Trouble, was, this was way back in 2007 in one of his major election speeches …


John Key has had an unbelievable solution for affordable housing
11 October, 2016

John Key has an unbelievable solution for affordable housing, which he recognises is urgent – and made more urgent by government inaction. He says as much here in a major speech to the contractor’s federation:

It wasn’t so long ago, in the 1990s, in fact, that New Zealand had a high level of home ownership compared to other countries. Not so anymore. We now have what has been described as the second worst housing affordability problem in the world.
    Make no mistake; this problem has got worse in recent years. Home ownership declined by 5% [in the last five years] to just 62.7%. To put that into context, home ownership for the preceding five years had been stable at 67.4%.
    If you dig down into those numbers a little deeper, some worrying facts emerge. The share of homes owned by people aged 20 to 40 dropped significantly [in that period]. Young people – the people we most want to prevent joining the great Kiwi brain-drain – are really struggling to get onto the property ladder.
    This decline shows no signs of slowing. In fact, on current trends, the crisis will only deepen. Home ownership rates are predicted to plummet to 60% within the next decade. And one of the biggest factors influencing home-ownership rates over the next 10 years will be the difficulty young buyers will have getting into their first home.
    This problem won’t be solved by knee-jerk, quick-fix plans. And it won’t be curbed with one or two government-sponsored building developments.
    Instead, we need government leadership that is prepared to focus on the fundamental issues driving the crisis. National is ready to provide that leadership. Earlier this month I announced our four-point plan for improving home affordability:

    1. Ensuring people are in a better financial position to afford a house.
    2. Freeing up the supply of land.
    3. Dealing with the compliance issues that drive up building costs.
    4. Allowing state house tenants to buy the houses they live in..

National’s goal is to turbo-charge the supply of housing in New Zealand by confronting the fundamental constraints that have kept a lid on it. By contrast, Labour’s instinctive reaction to the housing supply problem is to say the government must get in and build some houses…. I think it’s dangerous for the Government to pretend that developments such as that [government-promoted scheme] at Hobsonville are some sort of panacea to the housing affordability crisis…

Great stuff, don’t you think? Magnificent in today’s context.

Well, let’s get real here. If we want to make houses more affordable for first-home buyers, we need more houses to be built as cost-effectively as possible. Unless the Government thinks it can do the job all by itself, we’re going to need property developers to come on board.
    That means providing a legislative and regulatory environment that makes it cheaper and easier for people to develop and build houses. That helps first-home buyers.
    Going back to basics, supplying a house requires the following things:

     Land to build it on.
     Someone, i.e. a developer, who is motivated to build on that land.
     Regulatory consent to build on that land.
     Resources, i.e. materials and labour, to build the house.

So, it’s safe to assume that when supply is lacklustre then something must be going wrong with one or all of these things. That’s certainly the case in New Zealand:

     There’s been a lack of land available to build on.
     Opportunities for developing the land have been reduced, and the costs of doing so have got bigger.
     Acquiring resource and building consent has got harder and harder and takes longer and longer.
     And resources for building, particularly skilled trades people, have become scarcer.

If we’re serious about increasing housing supply, we need to enhance the incentives to build new houses by addressing these problems. Because, for as long as the costs of development keep rising, housing investment will fall and housing affordability will get worse.
    So, National’s plan for housing affordability tackles these supply-side problems in two main ways. First, by freeing up the supply of land and secondly by dealing with the compliance issues that drive up development and building costs.

Great stuff, I”m sure you’ll agree – and I can’t wait for him to get on with it.

Sadly, however, this was not John Key speaking this week, this month, or even this year.

Not even this decade.

No, it was the Prime Minister speaking in 2007, before he was even Prime Minister.

And this decade? Since you lot voted him in? Since he got the top job? He’s done nothing. Nothing for nine long years.

Nothing to ensure people are in a better financial position to afford a house.

Nothing to free up the supply of land.

Nothing to deal with the compliance issues that drive up development and building costs.

Nothing. Nothing at all.

Zero – apart from a smile a wave and a small litter of panacea projects to grab a headline and do nothing to solve the problem.

Nothing that Labour before him had not already (not) done.

And so, now, nine years later, even fewer people own their own homes, even fewer young people even try to, and we read this in this afternoon’s news …

The Government is tightening the number of residency permits it grants, in a bid to stem rising demand among foreigners to live and work in New Zealand… A spokeswoman clarified that the changes were a bid to pre-empt rising demand for residency, which was forecast to blowout beyond the normal planning range within a few years.

… and this in this morning’s:

The Government is preparing to build tens of thousands of houses for private sale in Auckland as it tries to tackle the city's housing crisis, Finance Minister Bill English says.

More intervention to cure (not!) the results of all the previous intervention (and the failure to fix all the previous intervention) of this government and every other.

A restriction on immigration and one or two government-sponsored building developments, even more panaceas, neither of which will come close to curbing the problem this government’s inaction has caused, and more problems down the rack from both. Not mention the effect on every would-be buyers and would-have-been immigrant.

Market failure? No, it’s not. It’s abject, complete and self-evident government failure. Government failure by the very political party that introduced and administered both the RMA and the Building Actthe two pieces of legislation which have done more than any other to hamstring builders and land-owners and create this torrid mess, two shackles on enterprise that the Bolger Government introduced, that the Shipley Government did nothing to repair, and that the Key Government has never begun doing anything with other than tinker.

And some of you people still support these malodourous, malingering, irresponsible, do-nothing pricks.

It makes me want to turn to heavy drink.

[Hat tip Hugh Pavletich]


Tomorrow, last year’s most popular post by far: a guest rant about a Nobel Prize winner or two …
Join me then.

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Friday, 6 January 2017

#TopTen | #3: A can-kicking ex-PM

 

Today, last year’s third-most popular post here at EnZed’s fourth-most read political blog asking … for all his tremendous popularity, is John Key the almost unique example of a Prime Minister without a legacy?


John_Key_Cartoon-McGrail

In years to come, I suspect, John Key’s long-term legacy will be seen as being the PM who kicked the can down the road.

He was a man who without question understood many of the issues a new government urgently needed to address, and even clearly articulated before his first electoral victory what that government needed to do to address them. Yet he didn’t do any of them. Not one.

Instead he smiled and waved, and he kicked the can on down the road.

John Key said in 2008 that "Nanny State is storming through your front door.” She still is. He did nothing to stop her.

He said (correctly) that in hoovering up well over a third of working New Zealanders and turning them into welfare beneficiaries Labour’s Working for Families programme was “creeping communism.” Yet he never touched it when in office, and the unsustainable welfare programme is now cemented in and generations of children will grow up knowing nothing but mooching as a way of life.

He said that Labour’s election bribe of interest-free loans for student was “unsustainable.” He did nothing about it in office, and the tertiary and student-debt bubble he subsequently oversaw continues to inflate.

He supported Don Brash in his call for One Law for All, and ran on a platform that promised to abolish the Maori seats. Eight years later separatism now, if anything, is worse – partly because his government has been propped up for three terms by MPs holding the very seats he had pledged to abolish.

In his first election, at at time when the global economy had already melted down, his signal policy was a programme of very substantial tax cuts –“a tax cut programme [fully costed and funded] that will not require any additional borrowing” – a “pledge to deliver about $50 a week to workers on the average age” – and a promise not to raise GST. He broke both promises. And taxes remain too high, even as government debt and spending increases.

On present numbers and demographics, superannuation is a ticking time bomb. He knows that. He knew it when he promised not to touch it. And even with explosion coming on, he didn’t. It still ticks – and the sound is getting louder.

He oversaw a disaster-recovery programme in what was the country’s second-largest city that took power away from property owners and vested it in instead in several layers of bureaucracy and grand plans from which the central city is still struggling to recover – if it ever will. It could have been different. But it wasn’t.

Aware back in 2007 that housing was already severely unaffordable, he articulated then an unbelievable solution to fix it. Which might have. Yet he never did any of it it, not one jot. Instead he left the the bubble to inflate, creating serious imbalances, rampant consumption of capital, and leaving a generation locked out of home ownership.

Taking office in 2008 government debt was just over $10 billion. In eight years he has taken it six times higher – with no plans in place for it to retreat.

When he took office the wage gap with Australia made us the poorest ‘Australasian state,’ with the average NZ wage around one-third less than the average Ocker. He made that one of his main tasks. His top job. Eight years later, after refusing to do anything to lift NZ productivity (and refusing to even listen to proposals that might), that wage gap remains the same, and the average Tasmanian still earns more than we do.

This is a man who resolutely refused to make hard decisions. Who elected to promise much, and deliver little.

To smile and wave, while refusing to spend his considerable political capital on what former National leader Don Brash calls “the crunchy issues.”

He's jovial, he's friendly, he's cordial ... he's very much seen as one of us and in that sense he's done a good job. But has he tackled the big issues facing New Zealand? Unfortunately not.

It’s said that Key is respected in Australia for keeping the electorate close while still making significant reform. Yet with respect, what reform?!

If Helen Clark’s inadvertent legacy was to cement in virtually all of the reforms enacted by Roger Douglas, then John Key’s will be to have cemented in hers – while offering none of his own, not one, as any kind of counterweight.

It’s said that NZ is better now than it would have been if any of Key’s opponents had been in power – and, certainly, you have to shudder if you imagine where the likes of a Cunliffe-Norman team would have driven us.

But John Key has done precisely nothing to arrest the slide towards big government that makes the policies of a Clark or Cunliffe possible and the statism they promote still palatable – and when one of their ilk does take over again (and with MMP still in place, against which he refused to campaign, then that is more likely than not sometime soon), they will have a state more swollen after his eight years to play with, and the Clark platform he so carefully maintained to give them a flying start.  As Peter McCaffrey observes from Canada,

for many 'conservatives' who seek to maintain the status quo, that [preservation] can be considered an achievement in and of itself.
But for those of us who are reformers, who think government is too big, who think bureaucracy is out of control, who firmly believe in new ideas and policies, then leaving Helen Clark's status quo largely intact (if not worse in some places), is no success.

New Zealand under John Key was always “on the cusp of something special,” which now with his end is revealed as being only the campaign spin that it was.

He is well liked, and by very many. And with the many parts of the state that needed rolling back, and that instead have been allowed to grow even more tumescent, that is perhaps the very worst thing one could say about a Prime Minister after eight years in office …

Thatcher1

[Hat tips Peter McCaffrey, @caffeine_addict. Key Cartoon by Richard McGrail, Thatcher pic and slogan FNK Creative Workshop.]


Tomorrow, last year’s second-most popular post, on the most pressing can that Key kicked so thoroughly down the road … or tried to.

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Tuesday, 6 December 2016

A can-kicking PM

 

John_Key_Cartoon-McGrail

In years to come, I suspect, John Key’s long-term legacy will be seen as being the PM who kicked the can down the road.

He was a man who understood many of the issues a new government urgently needed to address, and even clearly articulated what that government needed to do to address them. Yet he didn’t do any of them. Not one.

Instead he smiled and waved, and he kicked the can down the road.

John Key said in 2008 that "Nanny State is storming through your front door.” She still is. He did nothing to stop her.

He said (correctly) that in hoovering up well over a third of working New Zealanders and turning them into welfare beneficiaries Labour’s Working for Families programme was “creeping communism.” Yet he never touched it when in office, and the unsustainable welfare programme is now cemented in and generations of children will grow up knowing nothing but mooching as a way of life.

He said that Labour’s election bribe of interest-free loans for student was “unsustainable.” He did nothing about it in office, and the tertiary and student-debt bubble he subsequently oversaw continues to inflate.

He supported Don Brash in his call for One Law for All, and ran on a platform that promised to abolish the Maori seats. Eight years later separatism now, if anything, is worse – partly because his government has been propped up for three terms by MPs holding the very seats he had pledged to abolish.

In his first election, at at time when the global economy had already melted down, his signal policy was a programme of very substantial tax cuts –“a tax cut programme [fully costed and funded] that will not require any additional borrowing” – a “pledge to deliver about $50 a week to workers on the average age” – and a promise not to raise GST. He broke both promises. And taxes remain too high, even as government debt and spending increases.

On present numbers and demographics, superannuation is a ticking time bomb. He knows that. He knew it when he promised not to touch it. And even with explosion coming on, he didn’t. It still ticks – and the sound is getting louder.

He oversaw a disaster-recovery programme in what was the country’s second-largest city that took power away from property owners and vested it in instead in several layers of bureaucracy and grand plans from which the central city is still struggling to recover – if it ever will. It could have been different. But it wasn’t.

Aware back in 2007 that housing was already severely unaffordable, he articulated then an unbelievable solution to fix it. Which might have. Yet he never did any of it it, not one jot. Instead he left the the bubble to inflate, creating serious imbalances, rampant consumption of capital, and leaving a generation locked out of home ownership.

Taking office in 2008 government debt was just over $10 billion. In eight years he has taken it six times higher – with no plans in place for it to retreat.

When he took office the wage gap with Australia made us the poorest ‘Australasian state,’ with the average NZ wage around one-third less than the average Ocker. He made that one of his main tasks. His top job. Eight years later, after refusing to do anything to lift NZ productivity (and refusing to even listen to proposals that might), that wage gap remains the same, and the average Tasmanian still earns more than we do.

This is a man who resolutely refused to make hard decisions. Who elected to promise much, and deliver little.

To smile and wave, while refusing to spend his considerable political capital on what former National leader Don Brash calls “the crunchy issues.”

He's jovial, he's friendly, he's cordial ... he's very much seen as one of us and in that sense he's done a good job. But has he tackled the big issues facing New Zealand? Unfortunately not.

It’s said that Key is respected in Australia for keeping the electorate close while still making significant reform. Yet with respect, what reform?!

If Helen Clark’s inadvertent legacy was to cement in virtually all of the reforms enacted by Roger Douglas, then John Key’s will be to have cemented in hers – while offering none of his own, not one, as any kind of counterweight.

It’s said that NZ is better now than it would have been if any of Key’s opponents had been in power – and, certainly, you have to shudder if you imagine where the likes of a Cunliffe-Norman team would have driven us.

But John Key has done precisely nothing to arrest the slide towards big government that makes the policies of a Clark or Cunliffe possible and the statism they promote still palatable – and when one of their ilk does take over again (and with MMP still in place, against which he refused to campaign, then that is more likely than not sometime soon), they will have a state more swollen after his eight years to play with, and the Clark platform he so carefully maintained to give them a flying start.  As Peter McCaffrey observes from Canada,

for many 'conservatives' who seek to maintain the status quo, that [preservation] can be considered an achievement in and of itself.
But for those of us who are reformers, who think government is too big, who think bureaucracy is out of control, who firmly believe in new ideas and policies, then leaving Helen Clark's status quo largely intact (if not worse in some places), is no success.

New Zealand under John Key was always “on the cusp of something special,” which now with his end is revealed as being only the campaign spin that it was.

He is well liked, and by very many. And that is perhaps the very worst thing one could say about a Prime Minister after eight years in office …

Thatcher1

[Hat tips Peter McCaffrey, @caffeine_addict. Key Cartoon by Richard McGrail, Thatcher pic and slogan FNK Creative Workshop.]

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Wednesday, 6 July 2016

Social bond unsocialised

 

What’s a "social bond"?

It's very simple: A "social bond" is an IOU issued in return for bond-buyers giving government even more of their money. The only difference is that not every bond-buyer gets their money back.
That appears to be the point of a "social bond."
So it's like a raffle ticket, but with a "government commissioner" goosing the draw.

It’s also unworkable.

The Key Government's first social bond has collapsed, with negotiations breaking down and the provider walking away…

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Tuesday, 5 July 2016

Key admits to ‘crisis theatre’ and talks up house-price inflation

 

Grimes

You may have thought John Key was genuine when he’s talked about fixing the crisis in affordable housing – despite his deliberate tardiness in even acknowledging the crisis.  That isn’t the only thing about which he’s been deliberate.

Key’s visceral overreaction reaction to economist Arthur Grimes’s quite sensible proposal to reduce Auckland home prices by 40% reveals all you need to know about how serious he is about achieving affordable housing. Answer: he isn't, and would run a mile before allowing it, or anything remotely like it, to happen on his watch.

Grimes, a former Reserve Bank chairman at least dimly aware of central banks’ role in creating housing bubbles all around the world, suggests that by flooding the city with 150,000 homes prices would fall dramatically, by around 40%:

My call for policies to drive a house price collapse is driven by my personal value judgement that it’s great for young families and families on lower incomes to be able to afford to buy a house if they wish to do so. My concern is not for older, richer families, couples or individuals who already own their own (highly appreciated) house.
    Others may have a different value judgement to mine – but rarely do they make such a judgement explicit.

Key lost no time in making his own judgement explicit:

"Nah, I think it's crazy," Key [said].

Translation: Too much electoral damage for the PM to pursue.* Older, richer families, couples or individuals who already own their own (highly appreciated) house do vote National, and these people are very much Key’s concern. So policies will continue as they are, the beneficiaries of government-maintained house-price inflation can continue boasting at dinner parties, and Joe and Josephine would-be-first-home buyer can just go out and get fucked.

He concedes only that a little bit of house inflation will do you good, and that is precisely what he would like his “policy settings” to deliver. Never mind all the very real the dangers of letting the inflation genie out of the bottle. When pointed out to Key that the modest price fall proposed by Grimes would simply take prices down to where they were in mid 2012, Key responded:

_Quote_IdiotWhat Auckland needs, and what the rest of New Zealand needs where it's in high growth, is a sustainable supply of housing to meet the demand. Obviously making sure that prices don't go up too rapidly is an important part of what we're trying to achieve here. [Emphasis mine.]

This tells you more clearly than you may have wanted to know that every measure mooted by his government to “solve” the housing crisis is precisely what it appears to be: nothing more than ‘crisis theatre’ – action to appear as if action is being undertaken, and nothing more. Because we now have it confirmed that key Key policy is making sure, or trying to, that house prices keep going up. That’s “an important part of what we’re trying to achieve here.”

A pity for Joe and Josephine that his favoured policy settings have left them outdoors, their poorer relations sleeping in cars, and house-price inflation well on into its galloping phase. Just an unfortunate but electorally undamaging blowback from “what we’re trying to achieve here.” Because despite almost every government everywhere being tempted to inflate away their problems ( like every dieter: “just a little bit and no more!”) no government in history ever, anywhere, has managed to keep that inflation under control, to keep prices rising-but-not-rising-too-rapidly. Not one. What the policy unleashes, and has unleashed here, is severely destructive capital consumption acccompanied by “wicked inflation that no one can control” – the very ‘tiger by the tail’ that Hayek and others warned about that, once into its galloping phase, can only be cured by real pain.

But I doubt from what Key says that the crisis he’s helped cause and then stoke keeps him awake at night.

I doubt that, because rising house-price inflation has been his policy from the start of his premiership; the scumbag revealed it when he blithely dismissed leaky homes as a crisis that would be cured by the printing press. Speaking to Guyon Espiner seven years ago  about his plan to sweep the $11.5 billion leaky-home liability under the rug, Key said his plan was explicitly to inflate his way out. He told Espiner,

_Quote_Idiotif we can ensure that a homeowner has guaranteed access to funds, and a guaranteed ability to repay . . . we can allow inflation and we can allow rising house prices to let people fix their home and actually move on and move out of the situation.

As I said when the Rug-Sweeper-In-Chief first let that news slip,

    Key’s plan to wipe out the billions of dollars of leaky home liability (and by implication the tens of billions of dollars his government is spending that it hasn’t got) is not to address the real problems, it’s going to be to print money – the age-old remedy of quacks, charlatans and short-sighted so-called statesmen.

No wonder the policy looked so appealing to this lot.

But that doesn’t explain why Espiner and other media have never picked up on the admission.

Or why we must be forced to continue living with all the unintended, but entirely predictable, consequences.

* * * *

NOTE:

* Writing of the very similar UK housing bubble and politicians fear to prick it, Dominic Frisby writes in the Guardian:

The solution to the housing crisis is lower prices. What politician will stand for that? They daren’t let this market fail because too many people’s wealth is dependent on the value of their home – and homeowners vote more than renters…
    The collapse of UK property prices between 1989 and 1994 made the Tories unelectable for half a generation. No party wants such a fate. Indeed if interest rates reflected 10% house price inflation, homes would become affordable pretty quickly, but then the whole financial house of cards would come crashing down too. Those responsible for that would become [totally] unelectable…
    However this ends – falling house prices or a generation even more excluded – it is going to be painful. But the sooner we recognise the causes of high house prices – our systems of money and planning – the sooner the problem can be properly dealt with.

N.B.:

Grimes recognises that inflationistas like Key will argue that a collapse in house prices of the magnitude he proposes

would cause financial instability given banks’ loans to mortgage-holders. Luckily [says this former Reserve Bank chairman], New Zealand’s banks are well-capitalised and stress tests have shown that they can survive a large fall in house prices – mostly because the bulk of their loans pertain to older mortgages with plenty of equity behind them.
    For those who share my wish to bring house prices back to a level which ordinary people can afford, what is to be done? …
    The question is how can Auckland grow and at the same time have house prices that become affordable for more people. Logically, the only answer to that conundrum is that the city needs a massive increase in the number of dwellings.

Like Eric Crampton last week, and me yesterday [scroll down to the first update], he has a raft of sensible solutions. “To save the city,” he summarises, “ we need to flood it with housing.”

READ  ON FOR GRIMES’S SOLUTIONS:
How to fix a broken Auckland? Add 150,000 homes to crash prices by 40%
– Arthur Grimes, SPINOFF
AND FOR KEY’S REVEALING RESPONSE:
PM says Arthur Grimes' call to build 150,000 new houses in Auckland to produce a 'supply shock' that drives prices down 40% is a 'crazy idea'; says home owners don't want equity values to fall; says it would hurt banks – INTEREST.CO.NZ

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Thursday, 30 June 2016

Another post-disaster disaster: Brownlee’s failure the only thing that keeps building

 

Oaf
Christchurch Disaster Gerry Brownlee [pic Getty Images]

Christchurch City’s Earthquake Gauleiter Gerry Brownlee has been a bigger disaster for the city than the quake.  Instead of enabling investors and property owners to do their own rebuilding, since Day One he has squatted over them all and stamped down any signs of entrepreneurial breakout. He has simply refused to learn the lesson that cities only grow and flourish because of private energy and investment, and the post-disaster lesson heard from around the world: that public inertia and uncertainty kills private effort and investment – that handing a city over to self-declared experts is the best way to kill it, whereas taking a city off welfare and making it an enterprise zone allows it to rebuild. And fast. (Unlike here.)

No wonder then that, more than five years on, recovery is still a dirty word.

Brownlee’s busybody “plan” for the city was to throw taxpayers’ money into government “anchor projects” in order to suck in private investment. Yesterday’s announcement that “progress” is finally being seen in building his much-delayed new convention centre, progress that will cost the taxpayer around $300 million plus cockups and without any private involvement whatsoever – a pig in the middle of a big empty carpark -- tells you once more how well that strategy is going. As a fellow twitterer sagely observed:

tweet2

This is a man who could make a pig’s breakfast out of a private drinking party.

A walking disaster.

He should resign, along the the policy he walked in on.

.

Tuesday, 17 May 2016

John Key’s 2017 trial balloon: Bullshit & jellybeans

 

The National Party promised “significant” income tax cuts in their first term. We never got them. They never intended them. Instead, we got “stimulus” and “home insulation subsidies”—and excuses that didn’t add up.

Promised again the next term, a few got a minor tax cut, “balanced” with a significant hike in GST for everybody in the country. (Despite a promise not to raise that at all!)

The promise for the third term had been watered down to “no new taxes.” And already, only a short time in, that promise too has been well broken.

So what are we to make of John Key “not ruling out” tax cuts in 2017?

After taking you for granted for so long, does it sound to you like the same old bullshit and jellybeans again? It sounds like that even to National blogger David Farrar, who says

I’m sorry but unless the tax cuts are in next year’s Budget, why should we believe we’ll get them? We’ve been teased with the possibility of tax cuts for the last term, and if they’re not going to deliver them in next year’s Budget, then why should people believe they’ll get them in a fourth term?

So if it beggars belef for core National supporters, how much less believable is to anyone else.

.

Tuesday, 26 April 2016

John Key finds another new tax - #LandTax

 

"Some experts have declared that it is necessary to tax
the people until it hurts. I disagree with these sadists."

~ Ludwig Von Mises, from his essay ‘Defense, Controls, and Inflation

For a Prime Minisister elected on a platform of “no new taxes,” your ever-popular leader has been very good at discovering new ways to steal from you:

    • GST increase from 12.5% to 15%
    • GST on items purchased online from overseas
    • Capital gains tax on houses sold after owning for less than two years
    • Increased taxes on KiwiSaver
    • The 2012 ‘Paperboy’ tax
    • Civil Aviation Authority fees increase
    • Additional fuel tax increase of 9 cents with annual CPI increases locked in for perpetuity
    • Road User Charges increased
    • Massive ACC levy increases
    • New online company filing fees
    • Creeping expansion of the scope of Fringe Benefit Taxes; and, most recently
    • the so-called "Netflix tax" on services, media or software purchased from an overseas online retailer.

He’s now suggesting another way to put the grey ones’s hands in your pockets: a land tax on non-NZers and NZers living overseas. A land tax said to be around ten percent of the land’s value, payable every year. A land tax payable by owners out of their income on the value of their asset. A tax that will undoubtedly require a whole new army of assessors to value these ever-rising assets. A tax imposed on land owners as a xenophobic political sop instead of acknowledging the government policies that have made land in NZ far, far too expensive.

A land tax that would see many folk having to find around $100,000 every year or face the consequences -- to pay for the consequences of the very government policies that made their purchase more expensive!.

The argument for it? There may be “evidence,” says Mr Flip Flop that foreigners are “pushing up” New Zealand house prices.

First thing to say: not one land tax anywhere in the world has stopped house-price inflation or any of the housing bubbles in any foreign jurisdiction anywhere. Not in Britain, not in Ireland, not in Australia, not in Singapore, and certainly not in the US. So there’s that, i.e., no empirical evidence whatsoever.

Second: this is a highly progressive tax, in that the heaviest burden would tend to fall on the wealthiest. Yet progressive taxes are something Key’s Blue Team are supposed to be against. Key’s reason for suggesting it however is simply his same old tactic of requiring his supporters to swallow dead rats to ‘head off’ the Red Team, the tactic meaning the Blue Team instead implements everything the Red Team would do anyway. So much for reasons to support Key’s Blue Team.

Third, this must of necessity be a tax on land both productive and unproductive ( to make too many exclusions simply invites loopholes), so much of the cost will fall on land that is agricultural, or industrial, or  that is maybe being prepared for subdivision or waiting for rezoning or consent so it may be prepared for subdivision. Adding more cost simply adds another cost to the already rocketing costs of producing sellable land.

Fourth, a tax of ten percent on land value is (in round figures) represents esentially a 100 percent tax on rent that land might be earning. or even more in some cases. This would make the real capital value to the owners fall to approximately zero – so this new Key Tax would not just be a discouragement to these owners to own rental land, but a complete and total disincentive.

Fifth, it is argued that the tax would discourage foreign “speculators.” Yet what is a speculator but someone waiting for a profitable opportunity that has not yet arisen. Speculation itself does not raise land prices—speculators simply take advantage of the dislocations in the market that are causing those price rises. It would be better to remove those dislocations – such as the Metropolitan Urban Limit that arbitrarily makes some land inside the Limit worth up to ten times more than the equivalent land just outside—if their were a Government with the courage to do so. But there is not.

Sixth, the reasons for rapidly-rising house prices are hardly a mystery, and hardly the fault of foreigners – and the money they do bring in to pay for their houses and their upkeep is real money that local tradesmen live on and local vendors can and do invest productively.

As we recited here the other day, the reasons for rapicly-rising house-price inflation are easily put. There are three::

  • money became too cheap
  • planning rules became too numerous, and
  • it’s in the interests of the political elite to keep them that way.

Much has been written about the second and third. But just consider how cheap is the first.

The money used to buy houses is mostly borrowed. The way our system of money is organised, it is essentially debt organised into currency. Your Reserve Bank oversees the creation of this new money (new debt) that is being borrowed into existence – currently at the rate of around $3.8 billion of new debt/money every year – that’s a rate of money/detb creation of  between 8-13% per year.

And you’ll never guess where most of that new borrowing/new money goes: more than two-thirds of it ploughed directly into the already over-inflated housing market. Every year.

It’s a bit f’ing weak to blame foreigners for that.

Because to blame them for anything is frankly just a political sop. A bit of xeonophobic misdirection to get a new tax on the books.

But rest assured that like rust, the taxman never sleeps.  Every new tax starts with a single foot slipped quietly in the door like this one would be. First it’s one size ten inside your door, then two, and next thing you have a whole freaking home invasion. If this first step comes off, expect land taxes on everybody within this decade, and a fully-fledged wealth tax on everything soon thereafter.

Which will help no-one at all except the grey ones themselves.

This is precisely the sort of thing those parasites feed off.

Monday, 21 September 2015

Farrar lies to Australians

David Farrar has been lying to Australians, and the fact he needs to lie tells us a lot about what the Key Government is not.

Still struggling to understand what New Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull stands for (hint: nothing), the Australian Financial Review invited David Farrar to fill them in one of the few clues Turnbull has let slip: that John Key “has been able to achieve very significant economic reforms in New Zealand … by taking on and explaining complex issues and then making the case for them.”

As curious as the rest of us were to have these reforms revealed (Michael Reddell having already supplied a short list amounting to zero of reforms they have carried out, and a large list of things they haven’t reformed, but should have, and an even longer list of things that are a genuine step backward), AFR readers would have read the piece with some eagerness.

The lying starts early: "his government has balanced the budget and achieved several significant economic reforms,” says Farrar.

I count one flat-out lie, and several significant exaggerations. (You see what he/I did there?)

First the lie: For the benefit of Australian readers, the Key government has NEVER balanced a budget. Not once. Not for want of boasting about it—but then, at the start of the global financial crisis John Key boasted to the WSJ about not overspending either, and we know how that turned out: as a commenter on Farrar’s post describes: “pissing away $100 billion in extra borrowing to oil every squeaky political wheel.”

Because not only as the Key Government NEVER balanced the goddamned budget, it has very dramatically gone out and done the opposite—blowing the budget for several years by several significant hundreds-of-millions.

And Farrar knows that full well.

image

So what are the "several significant economic reforms" according to Farrar? According to him, they include
"partial privatisations of three power companies and the national airline."

Neither of which is either significant, or a reform.

“Another significant economic reform was a tax switch package—income tax rates were dropped and GST increased.”

Which ended up only in increasing the total tax take.

And that, dear readers, is that for even a Key supporter trying to talk up these alleged reforms that have allegedly been so significant.

Which, frankly, is why he has to lie.

And, ironically, his lying it comes at a lull when even government supporters are beginning to wonder if we’ve just witnessed a dirigiste turning point in the Key Cabinet, in doubling down on “the decision of two government ministers to overturn fundamental property rights and signal the political interests of the state were supreme.”

So perhaps there really is a clue in John Key’s Government to let Australians know what to expect from their new grey man across the ditch, in that “The most singular part about Malcolm Turnbull leadership is [perhaps] that he has no desire to lead anywhere except where others also on the left already want to go.” Because in that, Key is very definitely a role model.

Tuesday, 15 September 2015

Question for Malcolm Turnbull on John Key [updated]

The eighth Australian Prime Minister in five years (and fourth Liberal leader in six) wasted no time in praising John Key in his post-coup comments:

Turnbull reserved special praise for New Zealand’s Prime Minister John Key…
    “John Key has been able to achieve very significant economic reforms in New Zealand by doing just that, by taking on and explaining complex issues and then making the case for them. And I, that is certainly something that I believe we should do and Julie and I are very keen to do that again.”

So Malcolm, can you--or any of you, dear readers—explain to me and everyone else just what precisely those “very significant economic reforms in New Zealand” actually were?

Because from this side of the Tasman, I see nothing either significant or reforming.

Mind you,coming from one Labor-lite empty vessel looking at another, virtually anything could be considered “reform.”

UPDATE 1: Michael Reddell answers the question immediately: “It was a short list.  I couldn’t think of any.”

If Malcolm Turnbull is serious about economic reform –  which frankly seems unlikely –  he shouldn’t be looking across the Tasman for inspiration and example.

UPDATE 2: Eric Crampton comments:

It feels like National has convinced itself, and many of its supporters, that it has done the most it can do given the political constraints it faces: that this is the best of all possible worlds.
Perhaps that's the ambition Turnbull has as well. Lowering supporters' expectations does make the job a bit easier.

Monday, 18 May 2015

Housing tax: Two quotes, two comments

“In the end, yesterday’s announcement looks a lot like political theatre.  As ministers, and the Reserve Bank, have rightly noted previously, CGTs don’t change the character of house price cycles, and attenuated ones like this are even less likely to.  Some will feel better that ‘something is being done,’ but it will just divert attention, and policy and legislative time, away from measures that grapple with the real issues.” 1

COMMENT: It looks a lot like political theatre to this government, and last weeks’ Reserve Bank meddling makes it a two-cast drama. But while its off-Broadway now, a diversion, now that the door to CGT has been opened it will soon become main-stage centre-Broadway.

“What strikes me about the government’s new tax – which is totally not a capital gains tax <sarcasm>– is that (a) it will probably not deliver … because property speculators can just defer their sales to avoid the tax [for now], but (b) [because] there is now a ‘brightline’ tax on capital gains instead of a huge nebulous loophole … this is a big deal on a psychological and political level. It means that subsequent governments – or maybe even this one – can incrementally increase the two year limit out to five years, ten years, then no limit, and New Zealand will have a realised capital gains tax on secondary property.
Yes, the way it came about is absurd. Labour campaigned on a Capital Gains Tax. National opposed it. More than opposed – they tore Labour apart over it. So Labour abandoned it and now National’s introduced a dummy one. Someone else will give it teeth.”

COMMENT: Oh yes. They sure will. Someone else will certainly give it teeth. Big teeth.

Nobody voted for it.

A lot of you voted against it.

And you believed the blue lot when they said they opposed it. Yet here it is; the wedge just gently slipped in. all ready to be hammered home.

So who are the stupid ones here?

It’s the same ones who voted for those “meaningful” tax cuts in this Government’s first term.

You voted for tax cuts you didn’t get. And you voted against a tax you are getting.

Will you ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated?


1. This comment is by Michael Reddell at the Croaking Cassandra blog. Unfortunately, he concludes by revealing himself to be anti-immigration. So, there’s that.
2. The comment is Danyl’s at the Dim Post blog. His analysis is spot on. His evaluation however is 100% removed from mine; he calls it Progress!

Wednesday, 8 October 2014

Things happen slowly on Planet Key

Things happen slowly on Planet Key.

Seven years ago  at the National Party conference, before he was even Prime Minister,

Mr Key signalled a National-led government would improve housing affordability by embarking on a programme of personal tax cuts, changing the building regulatory regime, keeping interest rates lower, reforming development rules to free up land, and allowing state house dwellers to buy their homes.

So seven years later, the promises of jam tomorrow all remain the same.

All but one.

Thursday, 11 September 2014

“The left has already won this election”

She’s right, you know. 

Josie Pagani, that is, saying National is coasting on its rival's policy:

The left has already won this election.
    John Key's National Party is still high in the polls, not because the values of the right are popular, but because National's pitch is essentially, "Trust us to implement Labour policy. We'll spend a bit less than them doing it, and if you're lucky we'll give you a tax cut from the savings -- maybe."
    The left won the contest of ideas a long time ago, and National has completely capitulated… promising only to administer the policy wins of the left.

On that, she’s absolutely right. On the battle of ideas, the left has already won this election. It’s so patently obvious it need hardly be debated.

Where she’s wrong is assuming that’s a good thing.

She says it’s a good thing for example that

_Quote_IdiotNational has rolled over and accepted the left's analysis that … the market can't fix everything. [That] National held its nose and intervened to rebuild Christchurch and fix the failing housing market.

Yet, when was the market given an opportunity to rebuild Christchurch? It worked very well until 4 hours after the earthquake when the government took over and closed the city down.

And, when has the market been given a chance to fix the failing housing market? It had been working moderately well for umpty-tum years until increasing council costs (brought on by Sandra Lee’s 2001 Local Government Act intervention) and the increasing planning stranglehold on land (brought on largely by National’s 1993 Resource Management Act) began sending housing costs through the roof – and even while supply went through the floor demand has been kept high by newly issued debt courtesy of the Reserve Bank.

Being at the intersection of the three of the most heavily regulated and interventionist “markets” in the land – building, planning and money creation – all areas that have been reformed from the “leftist” menu -- it’s no surprise that what the housing “market” has managed to deliver has been large gains for some at the expense of misery for many.

Such is the pattern of heavily regulated and interventionist “markets” everywhere.

And it’s no surprise to discover that the leftist-inspired top-down solutions in Christchurch have failed to set anything alight apart from anger and resentment and very little rebuilding that really deserves the name.

Such is the general pattern when governments attempt to direct markets in direction people don’t wish to go.

Such would be the tragedy repeated in every other area should the Nats’ ideological capitulation be given voice in the other areas Josie would have them further gum up: in “actively managing the economy in favour of exporters and producers” (and so lowering the dollar that it would reduce real wages for everyone); in further raising minimum wages (and so locking out teenagers and the  low-waged from ever rising up the employment ladder); in regulating the prices of energy companies (guaranteeing both shortages and falling energy investment); and in tying up “the supermarket duopoly” (all but guaranteeing either shortages or rising prices).

Josie’s right that for years the Nats have capitulated in every ideological battle they have encountered – bringing always and in every policy debate just a pop gun to the left’s ideological nuclear weapons.  As Lindsay Perigo and myself and undoubtedly many others have and will have pointed out, this is the real reason, if there is one, for what the left have called “dirty politics.” 

But where Josie is very wrong is in assuming the Nats’ “management” of their capitulation has made anyone outside the immediate political arena better off.

Friday, 25 November 2011

NOT PC’s patented, principled voting guide

So Liberty Scott has posted his own voting guide for tomorrow—who to vote for in which electorate, and why—and I promised I’d do something similar.

So here goes.

First of all, remember that in ninety-nine percent of electorates the sitting MP and one of other buggers is already going to parliament whatever you and every other voter does to throw them out, which means the only vote that really matters as fare as the make-up of parliament is concerned is the party vote.

Which means your electorate vote is your “protest vote.” The vote that tells your MPs what you’re really thinking.

I’ve based my choices unswervingly on two rock-solid principles: either that a candidate advances or is at least sympathetic to freedom, OR that I know them, and they’re not a complete arsehole.

And since the marginal value of votes for smaller parties are higher than votes for larger, I’ve tended to favour those.

There is one basic difference between my choices and Scott’s. He wants to offer you a vote in every electorate. I don’t. My basic default position is that, unless there’s a good reason to do otherwise, you should stay home.

If however you insist on voting, then I suggest your default position should be voting Libertarianz in your party vote (since a vote for any other party is a vote for more government, not less), and leaving your electorate vote blank—unless, that is, you are in one of the electorates mentioned below:

Auckland CentralDavid Seymour – ACT
The ‘Battle of the Babes’ is as vacuous as they are. One’s a powerluster, and the other is dimwitted. Seymour is a good bloke in a party with too few of them. Give him your vote.

Botanyleave your ballot blank
Scott reckons National’s Jami-Lee Ross deserves your tick because he quoted Thatcher and Reagan in his maiden speech. He quote Maggie saying “the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money to spend.”  The problem with Mr Ross however is that he’d done nothing all his own life but spend other people’s money, and then vote for more of the same. Fuck him.

Christchurch/Ilam/Port Hills/Waimakariri/Selwyn etc – vote against the Czars
A vote for any National candidate in Christchurch is unconscionable. What the earthquake didn’t destroy, they have. And will do. Do not under any circumstances give them your vote. Punish them for punishing the city’s businessmen and women, and for ensuring home-owners are left without options. Vote for anyone, anyone at all, just as long as it’s not one of the Blue pricks. Even Lianne Dalziel.

Clutha SouthlandDon Nicolson – ACT
If you vote for Sir Double Dipton, Lord English of Karori, then you need your head read. Don is a good bloke who wants the ETS abandoned. Give him your vote.

CoromandelHugh Kininmonth– Labour
National’s replacement for stroppy local Sandra Goudie is carpet-bagger Scott Simpson. Scott’s a family friend, but frankly he’s too wet for Coromandel—a seat that Goudie turned from marginal into a safe blue seat. Friends tell me Kininmonth is a good bloke in the wrong party—and enough votes for decent Labour electorate candidates like him might displace some of their worse ones who hope to get in on the list. So vote Kininmonth.

Epsom …
If there’s one electorate that tells you how pathetic MMP is it’s Epsom—where a vote for the National candidate will help Labour, and a vote for the “Liberal Party” candidate will get you a conservative.
I can tell you right now what I will not be doing in Epsom. I will not be lifting a finger to help the Minister of Rhyming Slang back into parliament. Not even a pencil. This is a man I wouldn’t piss on if he was on fire.
So for the first time in my life I’ll be giving my vote to a National candidate. To Paul Goldsmith. If, that is, I can bring myself to do that. And if you can. (If you can’t, then abstain.)
Because a man who talks fiscal responsibility when he was the biggest spending mayor in the country doesn’t deserve your support. He deserves a kick in the arse. Because a man who talks reform yet as MP opposed everything Ruth Richardson did deserves not a tick but a kick. Because a man who tells his own leader to go to hell when his leader, Don Brash, advocated applying their party’s principle to marijuana doesn’t deserve your vote. He deserves a belt in the face. Give it to him. Metaphorically, anyway. (And those who say you have to vote for this slime in order to get other ACT MPs into parliament, I say “fuck ‘em".” I say they should have thought of that when they picked this piece of shit to run in their anchor seat.  A vote for Banks is a vote for Banks—a vote to give him control of any caucus ACT might possibly be able to muster. If that’s not enough to make your skin crawl, then you’re not alive. And you and I have nothing to talk about.)

Hamilton EastGarry Mallett – ACT
Unlike Banks, Gary is for smaller government and (somewhat) more freedom. And he’s a good bloke. So by all means pin your picture of Labour’s Sehai Orgad up on your bedroom wall, but give your vote to Gary.

Hamilton West - Tim Wikiriwhi – Independent
The Blue Team’s candidate is an unremarkable “Blue Green”; the Reds have the unenlightened Sue Moron. And why would you vote for them anyway when you can vote Wikiriwhi—a man who eats, sleeps, breathes and writes about freedom and liberty. If only he could spell. But vote for him nonetheless.

Invercargill - Shane Pleasance – Libertarianz
Shane is Libertarianz’ president, Director of the Southland Chamber of Commerce and he believes in Invercargill, freedom and personal responsibility.  He definitely deserves it. (And yes, I did pinch that write-up from his blog. But it’s still true.)

KaikouraIan Hayes - Libertarianz
Ian Hayes has them rolling in the aisles at public meetings. In a good way. So give him your vote in this safe National seat.

Mana - Richard Goode – Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
Richard has swapped membership in a party promoting freedom in all things to one promoting freedom in one only. Nonetheless he’s not the Forrest Gump of Mana, Kris Faafoi. Nor is he professional Maori and token woman Hekia Parata. And he was responsible for setting up this blog for me, way back in 2005. So in return, give him your vote.

MangereClaudette Hauiti – National
Claudette is a lovely woman without a chance in a wall-to-wall Red seat. So help out a woman who does talk about less government and more personal responsibility by giving her your tick.

ManurewaDavid Peterson – ACT
David is a libertarian and an advocate of Austrian economics—and he still needs to return one of my books.  So help me get it back, if you please, by giving him your vote, then asking him to return it. If you’d be so kind. Because he is a decent fellow, which can’t be said about his opponents—a career bureaucrat, and another Wet Blue Green. Vote Peterson.

Maungakiekie - Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga – National
Vote Sam just to piss off Carol Beaumont, the Marxist who believes the seat is hers by right.

Nelson - Maryan Street – Labour
Maryan Street is hardly the worst Labour candidate to stand on a husting. And she has one unique qualification: she is not Nick Smith. There is neither time nor space here to recount the reasons this mad moron, this Minister of the RMA and the ETS, of the Kyoto Treaty and of forced training for ECE teachers, deserves to be given the white pill. And I don’t mean aspirin. Vote Street. And if you see Smith out and about, punch him for me. In the face. Hard.

New Lynn - Tim Groser – National
Speaking of a punch in the face, there is one other character in the current parliament who competes with Smith for the title of most deserving. Do anything you have to, anything you can, to punish the wrecker of Telecom.  Even voting Groser.

North ShoreMichael Murphy – Libertarianz
No, don’t vote Brash. As the man who hand-picked Banks, and who is therefore single-handedly responsible for the demise of his own bid to keep National honest (which bid he has now conceded is over by agreeing to be John Key’s compliant lapdog should ACT get over the line), Brash sadly doesn’t deserve a tick. He deserves a lesson in principle.
So vote for Libz stalwart Michael Murphy, someone who could give it to him.

Northcote - Peter Linton – Libertarianz
Peter is an untiring advocate for your right to self-defence. Give him the biggest and loudest tick you can muster. And then leave the polling booth happy.

NorthlandLynette Stewart – Labour
National’s Mike Sabin is obsessed with prohibition, with ramping up the War on Drugs, with criminalising victimless crimes, and is unconcerned with what this will demonstrably do to gang profits (raise them) and to peaceful people (criminalise them).
So vote for anyone instead of this egregious busybody because at 60 on National’s list he needs your vote to get in. Vote for anyone to stop Sabin, even Lynette Stewart. Tell National the time for prohibition is over.

OhariuSean Fitzpatrick – Libertarianz
Ohariu, parliament and the country’s hairdressers need to see the back of Peter Dunne.  But that doesn’t mean we need to see the front of Charles Chauvel. Tell them both to go to hell and vote for the bloke who runs the most successful martial arts academy in Wellington.  And then invite him to take a trip to Nelson…

Otaki - Peter McCaffrey – ACT
Nathan Guy is like fog, wet and thick. Labour’s Peter Foster is like dross, useless and nondescript. But McCaffrey is another good young man in the wrong party, a chap who led a principled and eventually successful campaign against compulsory student unionism. Give him a big tick.

PakurangaChris Simmons – ACT
National’s Maurice Williamson took the leaky home issue and as minister proceeded to make it worse by using it as an excuse to corral builders, designers, Tom Cobley and all into what amounts to compulsory state unions. Tell him to go to hell. If voting Simmons can do that (and there’s precious few other choices on offer) then do it, I say.

TamakiStephen Berry -  Independent
Berry is funny, energetic, a principled advocate for freedom,  and he’s really stepped up in his campaign for this electorate. None of which you can say for National’s Simon O’Connor. Give Berry the big tick. He deserves it.

Tamaki-Makaurau - Pita Sharples - Maori Party
Even the Labour Party don’t deserve Shane Jones—and if voting Sharples keeps out the Minister for Self Abuse, then it’s worth keeping the racist seats for another term, until the Maori Part fold in the next one. So vote against Jones by voting Sharples. If you must.

Te AtatuPhil Twyford – Labour
Tau Henare is a bloke who discovered at middle age that life in parliament is a comfortable berth. Phil Twyford is the bloke who ran a principled campaign against Rodney’s super—shitty Super City. On balance then, there’s no contest. Tell tau to get a real job, and make Twitter safe for decent people again.

Te Tai TokerauKelvin Davis – Labour
Davis is sane. Hone is the opposite. ‘Nuff said, really.

Waiariki Te Ururoa Flavell – Maori Party
Flavell has surprised me often by saying good things on property rights and the economy. Yes, it’s true. Reward him with your favour.

Wairarapa - Richard McGrath – Libertarianz
Let me just quote Liberty Scott on this one:  “Vote for NZ’s most freedom loving GP – Dr Richard McGrath for Libertarianz. He’s a fine man, and has a good profile in the electorate.  You don’t need to think twice about this.   National’s John Hayes will probably win given his comfortable majority of around 6,700, but I strongly endorse McGrath politically and personally as the one candidate of all I most would like to see elected, across the country.  He would shake up healthcare, the war on drugs and would always take a balanced and measured approach, that adds up to whether any government measure reduces freedom and individual rights or increases it.  Vote McGrath with pride.”
And vote secure in the knowledge that he trounced all the other candidates in the district quiz.

WaitakerePeter Osborne – Libertarianz
Minister for Expanding the Welfare Rolls Paula Bennett is battling the Repulsion Camel, Carmel Sepuloni out west. Declare a plague on both their houses by voting for a bloke who knows that welfare doesn’t help those it pays for. It destroys them. Both Bennett and the Camel will be in regardless anyway, so vote for the good bloke. Vote Osborne.

Wellington Central Reagan Cutting – Libertarianz
In this electorate you can vote for state-worshipper (Grant Robertson), state-worshipper lite (Foster-Bell), libertarian lite (Whittington) or the real thing. Accept no imitations. Vote Cutting. Do it for the Gipper.

Whangarei - Helen Hughes – Libertarianz 
As Helen told her local newspaper, “A man cannot be freed till he knows he is in bondage.'' If you do, then a vorte for Helen Hughes is your only option.
And  as  the newspaper profile demonstrates, not only is Helen Hughes more colourful, more principled and more effervescent than the wet, limp, virtually lame Phil (I’ve Done Nothing in 3 Years But Buy A Bottle Of Wine) Heatley, she is a better sculptor too. So reward her and punish him. Tell the man who’s helped make affordable housing even more of a pipe dream to go to hell. Vote Hughes.

So there you have it. A few different recommendations than Scott’s, but only a few. I make it a recommendation for

6 ACT candidates, 9 Libz, at least half-a-dozen Labour, 2 from the Racist Party, 2 Independents and 1 ALCP type. But then I can’t count for custard.

Enjoy your voting tomorrow. At least it means this turgid campaign is finally over.

And that at least is something to celebrate.

And who knows, if we’re lucky we might get a few weeks without a government.

Wouldn’t that be nice.

Tuesday, 11 October 2011

John Key lies [updated]

Two years ago, if you believed the Key Government, the biggest problem facing Bill’s First Budget was whether or not he could somehow forestall a credit downgrade. Government cheerleaders cheered when our hero pulled it off.

Not so much today.  Those cheerleaders are resolutely silent.

And the talk elsewhere now is not about last week’s downgrade—due in part to “increased spending by the government”—but about John Key’s lies about it.  About the lie he told parliament after last weeks’ downgrade that an even bigger downgrade would have happened under a Labour Government—and he knew this (he says) because Standard and Poors told him.

 Bullshit, says Standard and Poors. They aren’t now, never have been and never will be so partisan—and, frankly, any former manager of Merrill Lynch knows that as a fact you can take to the bank, whatever he now says he heard second-hand from whichever ill-tamed unnamed source.

He lied. Perhaps to take attention from the downgrade itself. But he lied.

He can’t help himself.  It just comes naturally.

He lied to you about tax cuts. Before the last election he promised “a tax cut programme [fully costed and funded] that will not require any additional borrowing” – a “pledge to deliver about $50 a week to workers on the average age.” It was a lie. As their borrowing grew, their tax cuts fizzled, spluttered, then died in a political sleight of hand: a small cut with one hand, a larger rise with the other. (And no fear saying Smile and Wave never saw the collapse coming.  You don’t think a former Merrill Lynch manager would have noticed when Merrill Lynch went under?)

He lied about it, and you bought it.

And how about this boast of his in parliament a couple of weeks ago, boasting about “his” achievements as Prime Minister:

We have grown for eight of the last nine quarters, we will be back in surplus by 2014-15, our debt is one quarter of the OECD average, we have interest rates at a 45-year low, unemployment is starting to fall, we have created 45,000 jobs, … we are likely to create 170,000 jobs in the next 4 years, we have reformed the Resource Management Act, and, by the way, we are on track to win the Rugby World Cup.

More lies.  More bullshit. More hyperbolic nonsense.

  • “We have grown for eight of the last nine quarters…” Any “growth” has only been in inflated figures—and even those show any “growth” as virtually a statistical anomaly. The claim is a nonsense.
  • “…we will be back in surplus by 2014-15…” Any “surplus” expected in 2014-15 is expected only by Treasury, and only on their delusions of world economic recovery and local economic “growth” of over three percent a year for the next several years. Do you see any of that coming? The claim is a fiction.
  • “…our debt is one quarter of the OECD average…”   Government debt is now $28.5 billion and growing, thanks solely to Bill English’s continued over-spending.  This rapid and worrying rise in government debt was cited by both Fitch and Standard and Poors in their downgrade. Moreover, the OECD includes the UK, USA, Japan, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece … being just “average” in this company would be a very disturbing place to be indeed. The claim is irrelevant, at best.
  • “…we have interest rates at a 45-year low…” Interest rates have been set at a 45-year low by every central bank in the world because the world is in the middle of a 75-year historical world financial crisis, brought about by those same central banks. This is not an achievement, it is an admission. Of failure.
  • “…unemployment is starting to fall…” Really? Since the official unemployment rate rocketed up to between six and seven percent, virtually doubling under his Premiership, the adult rate has remained virtually static—figures helped, perhaps, by the more than 100,000 New Zealanders who left under his watch for Australia, with the rate of departure increasing in recent months. Meanwhile, a quarter of young people are now out of work and likely to remain so for some time, and nearly one-third of a million New Zealanders have been on a benefit for nine out the last nine quarters, with no sign of that falling either. Key’s claim is a joke. A disgraceful joke.
  • “…we have created 45,000 jobs…”  There were just over 2.2 million New Zealanders in work when the Key G0vernment came to office. There are now just over 2.2 million New Zealanders in work. 2.2 million minus 2.2 million equals …
  • “…we are likely to create 170,000 jobs in the next 4 years…”  More flatulent fiction.
  • “…we have reformed the Resource Management Act…”  The Act was “reformed” not to free up land to help make housing more affordable, nor to give power and property rights back to property owners, but to give more power to planners and make life easier for the government’s road-building machine. In other words, not to help you or I, but themselves. The claim is a lie.
  • “…we are on track to win the Rugby World Cup…” We? Is he next in line behind Stephen Donald?

His boasting is a litany of orchestrated ooze.

The fact is John Key lies.  He twists. He wriggles.

He’s a flake and a faker.

Why does he lie? Simple answer: if reality is only your side then there’s no need to fake it.

You only need to lie when reality is not going your way.

And once you start lying, there’s no way again that anyone else can trust you.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Steven Joyce lies too. [Don’t just trust Gareth, you can check the logs.]

Q: So how can you tell when a politician is lying.
A: Their lips are moving.