Showing posts with label Expertise. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Expertise. Show all posts

Wednesday, 11 June 2025

TRENDWWATCH: The Collapse of the (Existing) Knowledge System.

"Would you believe me if I told you that the biggest news story of our century is happening right now—but is never mentioned in the press?

"That sounds crazy, doesn’t it?

"But that is often the case when a bold new worldview appears. ... We are living through a situation like that right now. ... a total shift—like the magnetic poles reversing. But it doesn’t even have a name—not yet.

"So let’s give it one.

"Let’s call it: The Collapse of the Knowledge System. ... The knowledge structure that has dominated everything for our entire lifetime—and for our parents and grandparents—is collapsing. And it’s taking place everywhere, all at once. ... Let me list ten signs of this collapse.
 
(1) Scientific studies don't replicate. ... [and]  fake studies get cited more often than reliable ones. ...

(2) Public distrust of experts has reached an intensity never seen before. ...

(3) The career path for knowledge workers is breaking down—and many only have unpaid student loans to show for their years of training and preparation. ... Art history majors now have an easier time finding a job than computer engineers. ...

(4) Funding for science and tech research is disappearing in every sphere and sector. ... corporations that fund their own research programs are now investing in AI data centers, not scientists. ...

(5) Universities have lost their prestige, and have made enemies of their core constituencies. ...

(6) Plagiarism is getting exposed at all levels from students to corporations—and all the way to Harvard's president. But the authorities just take it for granted. ... It’s even embedded in the dominant technologies and institutions. ...
 
(7) AI is imposed everywhere as the new expert system. But when it hallucinates and generates ridiculous responses, the authorities (again) take this for granted. ... And they never, ever apologise. ... 
(8) Science and technology are increasingly used to manipulate and exploit, not serve ... [and we] now see actual degradation in every sphere of technology. ... 
(9) Scandals are everywhere in the knowledge economy (Theranos, Sam Bankman-Fried, collapsing meme coins, COVID, etc). ... nobody is shocked anymore. They lost trust in knowledge tech industries long ago. ... 
(10) We hear constant bickering about “fake science”—from all political and ideological stances. Nobody talks about “true science” ...
"Let me point out that despite all the manipulations, hallucinations, abuses, and dysfunctional excesses of the digital life…

"…Despite all of these, symphonies sound as majestic as ever. Philosophy is more necessary than ever. Paintings are still glorious. Great architecture does not collapse. Nature warms the heart. As do poems and epics and myths.

"Jazz still swings. Heroes still prevail. The soul is stirred. And one lover still reaches for another.

"I’m not sure what exactly will replace the cold, dying knowledge system. But I suspect it will recognize the value of these things. And will prevail for that very reason. ...

"I’m not suggesting that you can replace tech with a poem. But tech now desparately needs what can only be provided by the humanities and human values.

"The new knowledge system will be built on these human values. Technology will be forced to serve it—or it will get locked into a losing battle with the new 'softer and gentler' knowledge system."
~ Ted Gioia from his post 'The Ten Warning Signs'

Monday, 5 May 2025

Trump: "ENOUGH!"

"ENOUGH! 
     "As a strong supporter of many of the Trump administration's ultimate objectives in rolling back leftist nihilism, I have to say that his methods of doing so have become nakedly, unconstitutionally lawless. That's not just my opinion, or the left's. It's the opinion of many distinguished conservative and libertarian legal scholars, such as those who opine in this linked piece. Andrew McCarthy, Jonathan Adler, Ed Whelan, and Ilya Somin, for example, would never be accused of leftist premises or policy goals; but they are alarmed at the increasingly authoritarian behaviour of this president and his butt-kissing sycophants in Congress and the White House, and provide a long list of particulars.
    "The Constitution was explicitly designed by Madison et al. as a means of providing limits on the centralisation and use of power. It is not designed to ratify the use of unlimited power whenever the government, or the president, whimsically decides to wield it 'for a good cause.' 
    "You do not undo the left's grossly unconstitutional power grabs and shameless violations of individual rights by employing the same thuggish tactics for your own objectives. I have been thinking for some time that Trump appears to be modelling his governing style after 'The Godfather,' and one of the commentators in this article even says as much, comparing his behaviour to that of a Mafia boss. The dead end of that sort of behaviour is not the salvation of America, but its undoing -- not the protection of the rights to life, liberty, property, and the pursuit of happiness, but their obliteration...all to feed the vanity and neurotic narcissism of a single man.
    "You do not 'make America great again' by rejecting the course of George Washington for that of George III. We fought a Revolution 250 years ago to end that sort of capricious tyranny. It's time we remembered that -- especially those who are loudest in claiming that their objective is restoring American greatness."

~ Robert Bidinotto introducing the article 'Is Donald Trump Breaking the Law? Seven Experts Weigh In.'

Thursday, 17 April 2025

The role of experts

DOUGLAS MURRAY TOOK OVER Joe Rogan's podcast recently to call him out for platforming "revisionist, amateur historians who inflate their own importance while disavowing any expertise." In other words, ignoramuses on the very topic of their alleged speciality.

I wouldn't know if Rogan fits that bill because I've never listened to his podcast. But I do know it's widely influential. So bullshit begun there and in similar fever swamps elsewhere ('Hitler was right,' they might nod sagely, while laughing that 'the Holocaust never happened') spreads far and wide. So he's right to criticise these non-experts who swing their dicks in total ignorance of their topic — as if it's their ignorance, rather than their expertise, that demands they have a hearing. 

This problem is everywhere right now. Just take a look around, and you can see the crisis playing out in real time.
There’s plenty of noise and spin. But people want something rock solid, and as reliable as a Swiss watch.
But where can you find it now? Who can you really trust? Who do I really trust?

Yes, there is a role for those with expertise in a subject. But as Ted Gioia asks, Who Are the Real Experts Now?

Q: Do you distrust experts?

TED: No, the exact opposite is true. I respect expertise. But I think that some outsiders have more expertise than insiders. ... I never make distinctions on the basis of titles and degrees. Sometimes they correlate with expertise, but many times they don’t.
We all know that. Don't we. 
Here’s an interesting fact—if you made a list of the Stanford and Harvard students who have had the biggest impact on technology, at least half of them would be dropouts.
Expertise doesn't necessarily come wrapped in a degree. 
Th[is is] how the world should work. Your expertise should be your credential. Instead we pretend that your credential is your expertise.

There’s a huge difference between those two approaches. And I’m a firm advocate of the former. ...
Many of the intellectuals who shaped my own thinking were outsiders without PhDs. Consider the case of Susan Sontag, who never got her doctorate, but was the most celebrated literary critic of her generation. The same is true of Northrop Frye and Edmund Wilson, both of them critics of immense stature.

C.S. Lewis is still another example. ... He taught at Oxford for 29 years, and was famous all over the world. But his title was just tutor. ...
Consider the case of George Steiner—one of the most illustrious polymaths of my lifetime—but his doctoral thesis was initially rejected at Oxford.

He turned it into a famous book, The Death of Tragedy, and eventually received his doctorate, but he never really got accepted by insiders. Even after a half-century of publishing and lecturing at the highest level, he faced intense hostility from professional academics.

I think it was due to envy. ...
Steiner was an intellectual superstar—an expert at the highest level.

Expertise is the credential. The credential is not the expertise.
Gioia's own insights come from a lifetime shared between jazz ("I didn’t have a music degree. But I had ability, and I could back it up.") and corporate consulting.
I learned a big lesson from [consulting]. I learned that positional power is not the same as true expertise. And expertise always earns respect, even if it doesn’t come with a fancy job title.

I believe that is true in every field. There are experts who don’t have elite credentials—but everybody trust them. And, if you ask around, you will find out who they are.

Let me blunt. People with the highest level of expertise are very rare. So they stand out, even if they lack an impressive degree or prestigious institutional affiliation.
So you need some expertise to find the genuine experts. Gioia suggests five ways to judge the reliability of what he calls "indie experts" — that is, folk who aren't just talking their book, who don’t have institutional overseers or gatekeepers controlling what they say. They could be outsider academics, bloggers, or even big-mouthed podcasters.  But they first and foremost need a grip on reality. And then:
  • Pay attention to which indie voices correctly predict the future. 
  • See which ones identify key issues before others notice them. 
  • See which ones tell you truths that insiders won’t mention. 
  • See which people offer coherent explanations of situations that others find confusing.
  • And, finally, see who is willing to speak out bravely in the face of powerful embedded interests.
When you find people who do that, you are in safe hands. They are the real experts.

It's unlikely they're going to be supporting, or promoting, Holocaust denial. 

Monday, 10 February 2025

"So let's look at three explanations for NZ's secular stagnation that the big media outlets refuse to blame."


"The country does not appear to [just] be in a cyclical down-turn. ... The evidence ... points more to a long-lasting slow-down ... which has turned [New Zealand's economy] into one of worst performing in the world. ... [The reasons] remain unaccounted for. The 'experts' quoted in the mainstream media, who work for the Big Banks and NZX 50 firms, don't have a clue, though not the modesty to admit it. ...
    "So let's look at three explanations for NZ's secular stagnation that the big media outlets refuse to blame.
    "First, the vast number of New Zealanders who now 'work' from home. ... An article published in the National Bureau of Economic Research is being quoted world-wide which estimates falls in productivity of around 18% once a person works from home. ...This outbreak of collective laziness is more than able to explain why the country has stagnated. ...
     "Second, many of the Board members and CEOs of our largest corporations are nothing short of useless. Many are accountants & lawyers who know little about the core business. ... The higher echelons of NZ corporates have descended into an inbred club of status-seeking social climbers who aren't the real deal. ...
    "Third, our national energy has been increasingly sucked up by [endless] Treaty debates. ... spawning industries of academics, lawyers, politicians and media types who do nothing productive, other than argue with one another. ... It has emerged that property rights, the fundamental driver of economic growth, are thereby insecure in NZ, making it a terrible place to keep your money and invest. ...
    "[I]t is [therefore] entirely plausible that [all of our economic stagnation is due to] the vast numbers of Kiwis who are now pretending to work from home, hiring and promotion policies not based on merit, ... along with endless going-nowhere Treaty debates which have consumed the energy of the country ..."

~ Robert MacCulloch from his post 'Should NZ's secular stagnation be due to working-from-home, lack-of-meritocracy & endless Treaty debates, then we can forget economic growth.'


Thursday, 22 February 2024

A question for libertarians in plague times


Here’s a simple hypothetical question I’ve yet to see libertarians address properly, and now's as good a time as any to ask it: What is the role of government in a time of actual plague?

Now, if you’re an anarchist, you can leave the chat now, since you don’t think there’s a role for government at all. That things will all just magically work out for the best when there’s a market for force. (Good luck to you on that one.)

No, I'm talking here to principled libertarians who aren’t primarily anti-government but pro-liberty. So I’m asking this of principled pro-liberty libertarians who support the idea that the proper role of government is the protection of citizens’ individual rights, that governments should be tied up constitutionally, and that such governments derive their authority from the consent of the governed. Let’s call it one such administration Government X. And I'm asking: What should our Government X do in a time of actual plague? 

Argue here if you like that a carrier of an infectious disease can in no way violate anyone else’s individual rights, in which case you’re either making a damn good argument for that position (and could apply it for example to HIV/AIDs as well), or you’re probably also leaving the chat at this point to join the anarchists.

But (to concretise the question for you), imagine Government X were in power when a plague slowly took over the country. To keep it somewhat concrete, imagine if you like that we’re in Elizabethan times, in London, when plagues would regularly ravage the place, and the Master of the Rolls would shut down the London theatres so the plague wouldn’t spread that way. Now you can say, as I would, that there shouldn't be a Master of Rolls. And you can argue, as historians have done, that his decision helped spread the plague even more widely because the theatre companies went on tour, taking plague rats with them. But do you say that our Elizabethan Government X wouldn’t at least have a conversation about theatre attendance, and make some decision about it? Perhaps, at least, to devise some objective rules by which if they're followed theatres and other places may stay open (remembering that the Elizabethans didn’t even know rats’ fleas were plague’s cause, and that those wanting to attend the theatres might themselves be eager to see evidence of some kind of protection; and that Elizabethan theatre insurance probably didn't cover damages from killing your audience.)

Let’s make the decision even more difficult for you. Imagine that it’s a serious plague; that it's often (but not always) fatal within a certain period of time; and that a patient infected with our plague generally doesn’t even know they have it for several days, during which time they are already terribly infectious to others. So, it’s a new plague about which even those whose advice you value know little yet (that’s ‘cos it’s new, and Elizabethan science advice wasn't always that great — they still recommended leeches, if you recall). But those two deadly observations about this new plague seem to be the emerging facts. 

This puts an even more complex complexion on things, doesn't it. If this were so, don’t you think our whole population would would be having a chat about it, not least our Elizabethan Government X? About how to deal with apparently uninfected folk infecting uninfected others, without infringing the rights of either? (And if you’re saying at this point that we should all be left "free" to be infected, then you’re probably about ready to leave the chat and buy a straitjacket.) 

It’s no good just saying about our Elizabethan Government X that “they have no role,” since clearly they do: if I have an infection that can prove fatal to you, and I insist on still visiting the theatres, there’s as much a role for government as there would be if I went to one wearing a suicide vest. (And you need to leave more than just the chat if you think there isn’t.) And Government X would have as much of a legitimate interest in this plague being spread from theatres as in a bareback brothel boasting a harem with full-blown HIV/AIDs. 

Now, you can insist (as I expect on past evidence many libertarians might) that “this isn’t really a plague” — except here we’ve already stipulated that it is. Or that our Elizabethan experts are wrong (which we’ve already agreed they might be). Or that the government is full of power-lusters who are just using the plague to advance their power — as many probably would, as they do in times of war as well, but this doesn’t devalue the very threat of this special plague we’ve imagined, and ignores that we’ve already agreed that we’re talking here of a principled Government X.

So, I ask you again: what is the proper role in such times of our principled Government X?

You tell me. 

Here's Monty Python:



Tuesday, 31 October 2023

”Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. Nevertheless ... "


"Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken ... Nevertheless the opinion of experts, when it is unanimous, must be accepted by non-experts as more likely to be right than the opposite opinion."
Full citation:
"Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. Einstein’s view as to the magnitude of the deflection of light by gravitation would have been rejected by all experts not many years ago, yet it proved to be right. Nevertheless the opinion of experts, when it is unanimous, must be accepted by non-experts as more likely to be right than the opposite opinion.
    "The scepticism that I advocate amounts only to this:
  1. that when the experts are agreed, the opposite opinion cannot be held to be certain; 
  2. that when they are not agreed, no opinion can be regarded as certain by a non-expert; and 
  3. that when they all hold that no sufficient grounds for a positive opinion exist, the ordinary man would do well to suspend his judgment.
"These propositions may seem mild, yet, if accepted, they would absolutely revolutionise human life.
    "The opinions for which people are willing to fight and persecute all belong to one of the three classes which this scepticism condemns. When there are rational grounds for an opinion, people are content to set them forth and wait for them to operate. In such cases, people do not hold their opinions with passion; they hold them calmly, and set forth their reasons quietly. The opinions that are held with passion are always those for which no good ground exists; indeed the passion is the measure of the holder’s lack of rational conviction. Opinions in politics and religion are almost always held passionately."

Bertrand Russell, from his introduction to his Sceptical Essays (1928)

Friday, 27 October 2023

How do you define an "expert"?


"[N]ew experts had to earn their place at the top of the knowledge pyramid by gaining a reputation among their peers. To become an authority, with all the privileges thereof, it was not enough to be learned; one was expected to have contributed to the body of knowledge."
~ Joel Mokyr, from his 2017 book A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy


Wednesday, 21 June 2023

Misinformation [sic]


Cartoon by Wiley Miller
"My father was an expert witness many times throughout his career. You know what the other side had too? An expert witness. They would offer totally different interpretation of the data and it was up to the jury to decide. Do we really want to have the government or the MSM claim one of the experts was providing misinformation... Or should we allow that to be decided by informed individuals? The rise of information control is the most dangerous threat facing democratic societies today."
~ Mathew Wielecki 

Tuesday, 13 December 2022

What (and Whom) to Believe?


"There are three ways of arriving at an opinion on any subject. The first is to believe what one is told; the second is to disbelieve it; and the third is to examine the matter for oneself. The overwhelming majority of mankind practise the first method; of the remainder, the overwhelming majority practise the second; only an infinitesimal remnant practise the third.
    "To believe what one is told is the right method for most people in regard to most questions. I believe there is a place called Vladivostok because the atlas says so and because I have met apparently veracious people who assert that they have been there. But if I were engaged in making a survey of eastern Siberia for the Soviet Government, I should have to verify the existence of Vladivostok for myself. Believing what one is told is proper whenever there is a consensus except in matters on which one is a professional expert. In many of the most important questions there is a local but not a world-wide consensus.
    "To disbelieve what one is told is the method of the rebel and as a general practice has nothing to recommend it. Wisdom is not achieved by refusing to believe that 2 and 2 make 4, or that there is such a place as Vladivostok. When the authorities are unanimous, they are usually right; when they are not, the plain man does well to suspend judgement. A general habit of intellectual rebellion is more foolish than a general habit of intellectual acquiescence, and if it became common it would make civilisation impossible.
    "It is wise, however, to feel some degree of doubt, greater or less according to circumstances, as regards even universally accepted opinion. Few things seemed more firmly established than the Newtonian theory of gravitation, yet it turned out to need correction. The rational man, in such cases, acts upon the accepted opinion but is willing to give a hearing to anyone who advances serious reasons against it.
    "Rationality is shown not so much in what you believe as in how you believe it. You are rational if you believe it on evidence and as firmly as the evidence warrants and if, further, your belief leads you to act only in ways which are no obstacle to the discovery of error.
    "Freedom of opinion is important, since, without it, no generally received error can ever be corrected; therefore no belief should be so firmly held as to lead to persecution of those who reject it. But so long as freedom of opinion is safeguarded, all except professional experts have a better chance of being right if they accept than if they reject the prevalent opinion.”

— Bertrand Russell, from his 1931 essay 'What to Believe', collected in the book Mortals and Others

Thursday, 14 July 2022

Inflation Isn't What the "Experts" Say It Is. The Confusion in Terms Is Deliberate



Inflation” isn’t what you think it is, explains Manuel Tacanho in this guest post, and the confusion about it is deliberate: it’s deliberate because those who profit from the real inflation want to keep stealing from you, and don’t want you to notice.

Inflation Isn't What the "Experts" Say It Is. The Confusion in Terms Is Deliberate

Guest post by Manuel Tacanho

Monetary inflation is highly desired by the state. This has been the case thought history and is still the case today. That is because inflation facilitates government spending beyond the revenue it takes through taxation. Government spending gives rulers, politicians, and bureaucrats greater centralised control and commanding power over people's lives (i.e., the economy and society).

Without inflation, the state finds itself shackled within the confines of what it can take via taxes. Therefore, governments will not miss a chance to gain control of the monetary system. Once the state does have control of money, inflation becomes inevitable and institutionalised. This is why, in recorded history, nearly all cases of great inflation and hyperinflationary socioeconomic collapse (e.g., Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, and more recently Venezuela) have been a result of government (and/or its central bank) deliberate policy.

It is because of the insatiable appetite to spend more than they take through taxes that governments, through political deception and coercion, tend to undermine a sound money system and repress monetary freedom in favour of one that facilitates currency debasement (i.e., money printing). That is to say, a fiat currency regime monopolised by the state and forced on the people by legal tender laws.

As such, from the statist economics standpoint, the definition of inflation had to be distorted and the public miseducated about it —so that the process of currency debasement (i.e., monetary inflation) may go unnoticed and accepted by those whom it hurts the most, the general pupation.

Definition of inflation


The popular and textbook definition of inflation is ‘a generalised rise in the prices of goods and services.’ Commonly measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This definition is not wrong per se but it is inaccurate and grossly misleading. Deliberately so.

The original ‘classical’ (and more accurate) definition of inflation is ‘the artificial increase in the supply of money (and credit).’ By artificial, it is meant that the expansion of the supply of money is not determined by the market (i.e., the people) but rather by the government, usually through a central bank. In the classical (pre-Keynesian) world, this generally meant and artificial increase in the money supply beyond the rate of growth of the gold that backed it.

So, you can see that this one word now describes two different things - indeed, one being the cause of the other! This confusion in terms is not coincidental, it is deliberate. Given the rise of Keynesian economics and the inherently inflationary times in which we, humanity, have lived under for many decades now.

Deliberate distortion


The original definition of inflation has been distorted for two principal reasons. 

First, the government and its monetary agency—the central bank—shield themselves from any future blame for the continuing rise in prices, and the currency’s loss of purchasing power, that inevitably happens as a result of inflationist monetary policy. This enables the government and mass media outlets to divert the blame to something or to someone else. Anyone but the real culprits. Their usual scapegoats (which we’re hearing again being blamed) are “greedy businessmen” or “corporations.”

Second, the official and distorted definition of inflation—a generalised increase in prices of goods and services—conceals the truth, the true source of inflation, thus preventing the public from knowing that inflation and the currency’s loss of purchasing power is a deliberate policy of government/central bank. Not knowing this, the public will not protest against it.

For example, this report claims that most Americans believe “corporate greed, profiteering and price gouging” is the cause of the current inflation crisis in the United States, where price inflation just hit a 40-year record high.

What’s more unsettling is that the same report found that the majority of those polled also believe that the government should step in and resolve the problem. In other words, the public wants the cause of the problem to solve the problem!

Such is the depth of economic misinformation and miseducation we face. Perhaps, if the public knew that since the establishment of the current US central bank in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost more than 95 percent of its purchasing power relative to gold (the commodity that gave the dollar its initial value, stability, and global acceptability), they wouldn't blame the inflation crisis on “corporate greed”.

Economist and social philosopher Murray Rothbard wrote:
Government is inherently inflationary because it has, over the centuries, acquired control over the monetary system. Having the power to print money (including the "printing" of bank deposits) gives it the power to tap a ready source of revenue. Inflation is a form of taxation, since the government can create new money out of thin air and use it to bid away resources from private individuals, who are barred by heavy penalty from similar "counterfeiting." Inflation therefore makes a pleasant substitute for taxation for the government officials and their favoured groups, and it is a subtle substitute which the general public can easily—and can be encouraged to—overlook.
Put simply, the cause of today’s increasingly inflationary and chaotic monetary situation is not corporate greed, speculators, free-market capitalism, Vladimir Putin, or the weather. It is governments’ monetary agencies and their current fiat-money system.

You see, under the fiat currency regime that they administer, the central bank can easily, artificially, and systematically increase the money supply, almost like a magic trick. And they do, frequently! Which makes inflation (mild or severe) the norm. And this inflationary process gradually destroys the purchasing power of the currency resulting in higher prices. This policy, while benefiting the government and associates, defrauds the people and impoverishes society, economically and morally.

Economist Hans F. Sennholz noted:
It is not money, as is sometimes said, but the depreciation of money—the cruel and crafty destruction of money—that is the root of many evils. For it destroys individual thrift and self-reliance as it gradually erodes personal savings. It benefits debtors at the expense of creditors as it silently transfers wealth and income from the latter to the former. It generates the business cycles, the stop-and-go boom-and-bust movements of business that inflict incalculable harm on millions of people.
Professor Sennholz further noted:
Monetary destruction breeds not only poverty and chaos, but also government tyranny. Few policies are more calculated to destroy the existing basis of a free society than the debauching of its currency. And few tools, if any, are more important to the champion of freedom than a sound monetary system.

Conclusion


A generalised rise in the prices of goods and services is a consequence of inflation, not inflation itself. Inflation was classically (pre-Keynesian economics) defined as an artificial increase in the supply of money and credit.

Nowadays it makes sense to use the term monetary inflation to specify the artificial increase of the money supply, on one hand. And to use price inflation to refer to a generalised rise in prices of goods and services on the other.

Irrespective of the confusion in definition, inflation stealthily distorts and debilitates the economy, steals the people's purchasing power, and impoverishes society - all while benefiting the ruling political and business elites.(Want to know one main cause of contemporary, and ill-gotten, inequality? Here you are!)

History (and common sense too) makes it clear that fiat currency regimes are unsustainable arrangements that always and inevitably fail. As such, there is no reason to believe today’s cruel and oppressive fiat currency regime will defy Natural law to stand the test of time.

Evidence suggests it is more sensible to believe the fiat dollar standard too will crumble. And when it does, we hope economic miseducation and misinformation will crumble along with it.

* * * * *
Manuel Tacanho is founder of Afridom, a sound money based digital banking startup for Europe and Africa. He's also an advocate of free markets and sound money for Africa’s economic development. His post first appeared at the Mises Wire.

Thursday, 28 May 2020

"Experts are often called in, not to provide factual information or dispassionate analysis for the purpose of decision-making by responsible officials, but to give political cover for decisions already made and based on other considerations entirely." #QotD


"Experts are often called in, not to provide factual information or dispassionate analysis for the purpose of decision-making by responsible officials, but to give political cover for decisions already made and based on other considerations entirely."
          ~ Thomas Sowell, from his book Intellectuals and Society
.

Tuesday, 26 March 2019

No Sanitised Pages in History, Please!





In this guest post, Richard Ebeling asks why we would want the motivation for New Zealand's worst mass murder to disappear down a memory hole policed by an inexpert minor bureaucrat.

Imagine that in 1946 the general-secretary of the United Nations had submitted a resolution to the General Assembly stating that Nazi crimes were so horrendous and despicable that the countries of the world needed to impose a blanket censorship on any public reference to or discussion of Hitler or his henchmen. Only the names of victims were to be mentioned or discussed. And the U.N. member countries, then, unanimously passed this resolution.

If such a resolution had been proposed, passed, and fully enforced, what would we know today about the Nazi regime, the German history of that period, or the origins, premises, logic, and implied conclusions of national-socialist ideology and policies, both domestic and foreign? Without open and public discussion and debate through mention of Hitler’s name and unrestricted access to and use of his papers, speeches, and all other related documents, from whom would the world know why and what the Nazi system had done?

Imagine Only Government-Approved Nazi History

The global public would be dependent upon what the governments of the world decided people should know. A select committee of appointed “experts” in a variety of fields would be given full or abridged access to all the relevant material. They would prepare draft histories of the Nazi era; their drafts would be gone over and “edited” for content and interpretation by a political cadre more directly answerable to the ruling politicians; and then with public fanfare the “official” history, interpretation, and meaning of the Nazi era would be made available to “the people.”

No doubt, there would be critics after such a release of the approved history. They would want to know more, and whether everything relevant had really been included and explained. But, surely, the governments of the world could not allow just any Tom, Dick, and Harry to have direct access to and use of those millions of pages of Hitler- and Nazi-related documents. How do you know who is a “nut” or a Hitler apologist and advocate wanting to whitewash the ideas and actions during the Nazi period?

No, any additional users would have to be interviewed, vetted, and judged to make sure that they would not take advantage of their access to the archives to glorify and espouse those hateful ideas. In the name of historical justice and sympathy for all those who had died at the hands of the Nazis, which facts and documents and what range of interpretations officially permitted would have to be decided by those in political authority and their bureaucratic appointees. Why? For the public good, so there would be no legitimising of such evil ideas.

The history of the Nazi era and all references to him, whose name must not be said in public, would be sanitised, with the formal stamp of approval by the government’s OHFA (Office of History and Fact Administration).

Seem crazy? In fact, something like this was attempted by the occupying Allied powers in Germany immediately after the Second World War. Then, after 1949, the newly constituted West German government implemented a form of it. Indeed, for 70 years the publication of Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf was banned in Germany. And the public display of Nazi (and some communist) symbols was prohibited, except for certain legally ambiguous artistic or historical research purposes. An approved history of the Nazi epoch was taught in all West German schools.

Official Soviet History Ended and Reborn

For the nearly 75 years of its existence, the government of the Soviet Union had its own official (and largely fictional) history of the Russian Revolution, of the building and workings of the socialist paradise under Lenin, Stalin, and their successors, and of the enemies of the regime at home and abroad.

With the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, the new Russian government partially opened various secret archives to Russian and foreign researchers. Truths became known about Soviet socialism-in-practice: the terror, the tyranny, and the tragic deaths of tens of millions to make the bright, beautiful collectivist future. Also found out were some embarrassing revelations and confirmations of who and how many in the West had been spies, agents, or fellow travellers of the Soviet government and its secret police and intelligence services.

But under Vladimir Putin’s government in Russia today all such archives are once again closed to the prying eyes of researchers other than those approved by the authorities. Once more, there is an official history, one in which Stalin is portrayed as not really all that bad. He industrialised the backward Soviet economy; he saved the world from Nazism in the Second World War; and he made the Soviet Union a “great power” facing enemy number one, the United States. As for the mountains of the dead, well, who really knows how many or why? Why obsess about some “negatives” from the past? Let’s focus on the positives and the future.

What Are We to Know About the Christchurch Massacre?

The recent mass shooting in Christchurch, in which one man killed or wounded at least 100 people at two mosques, has sent shockwaves through the local population and aroused strong condemnation and sympathy from around the world.

So what do we know about him and his reasons for killing innocent and unarmed men, women, and children? He came from Australia and had been living in New Zealand. He possessed firearms that seemingly were obtained lawfully, and was not on the radar screen of the police or anti-terrorist agencies in either Australia or New Zealand.

He posted a live video feed on social media of his entering and shooting in one of the mosques. And he posted on social media a lengthy “manifesto” outlining his worldview and the motivations behind his violent actions. The video was soon taken down, and the manifesto is not downloadable off the internet, either.

Newspapers like the Washington Post, or the New York Times, or the Wall Street Journal, which often offer hyperlinks to original documents that they are reporting or commenting on, have not provided even one to the manifesto that I have been able to find in any of their online articles about the tragedy in New Zealand that I looked through.

(Perhaps I’m just a poor Google searcher; after all, I was born in the middle of the 20th century and began all my writing in either longhand or on an old-fashioned manual typewriter; and for most of my life I read “real” books and print newspapers. So, be kind if I’ve missed such a link.)

Reporters for these publications obviously have accessed this document, on the basis of which they have offered selected summaries of what was in the shooter’s mind. It has been reported that he praised President Donald Trump; that he greatly admires the political regime in the People’s Republic of China; that he is a self-declared eco-fascist; and that he is an “environmentalist” concerned with the destruction of the planet and its overpopulation especially due to the number of “undesirables.” He has been most frequently labeled a “right-wing nationalist extremist.”

The prime minister of New Zealand publicly called for no mention of the perpetrator’s name, only the names of the victims. No legitimacy, or recognition, or publicity, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said, should or would be given to this person. [With which this blog agrees.] In several of the news video clips of the murderer's first appearance in court that I saw, his face was blurred out so the viewer could not have a clear picture of what he looks like. And in New Zealand, the manifesto he wrote has been declared banned literature; the rule against possessing or sharing it is enforced by a criminal penalty of 14 years in jail.

All that already may be known about the murderer and his actions leading up to and during the attack has been partly withheld from the media due to the ongoing police investigation. But it is clear that if Ms. Ardern and others had their way only the minimal amount of information and facts would be permanently publicised so as not to give the murderer any “15 minutes of fame” that he might have been after, or to serve as an incentive to any future copycats and publicity seekers.

However, in my view, it should not be considered the government’s job to “protect” the population or any subsection, including the friends and family members of the victims of his acts, from all that may or could be known about him, his motives, or what and how these killings were done.

Knowing the Truth About Historical Horrors

Over the years, I have read many histories and survivor accounts of the Nazi and Soviet atrocities, cruelties, and mass killings. I have read about how these despicable acts were done, by whom, with what horrific methods and techniques, and the reasons behind them as rationalised by their political perpetrators and by the narrators of the histories who have attempted to make some sense out of or give some understanding to this catastrophic madness. I have also visited Nazi concentration camps, and I have seen a KGB interrogation and torture basement in Vilnius, Lithuania.

There were times when I have had to put down a book that I was reading about the Nazi period, and turn away. I could not, at that moment, read one more story or one more detailed description of what was done, to whom, and how. I felt sick to my stomach, and my thoughts could no longer handle the imageries created in my mind from reading the words on the pages. I had to step away from the nightmare of those events, one after another, endlessly committed against so many.

At the Buchenwald concentration camp near Weimar, Germany, I approached the gate and it seemed that a terrible stench was still hanging in the air. How could that be, more than half a century after all that had happened there? Was it just in my imagination? Was my mind playing tricks on me? After going through the concentration camp in Mauthausen, not far from Linz, Austria, I sat numb and speechless with a cup of coffee in my hand for a long time in a café that had once been a small guardhouse just outside the entrance to the camp. At a nearby table was a group of young German tourists drinking beer and singing songs. Was I in some type of weird time warp?

You somehow have to re-establish a psychological balance; otherwise you will go mad reading about or seeing the places where all this madness had been done. What types of creatures do this? Are they even human? What does human mean, if people can do such things?

Wanting to Know the “Why” Behind Madness

The reader might reasonably ask, Why have I read so much, and gone to such places? My most honest and complete answer would be that I couldn’t fully explain it. I have had the desire to understand why it happened and what kind of people could do it. As a classical liberal, as a believer in and an advocate of the freedom and dignity of the individual, I have wanted to comprehend what ideas, what reasons and motives, what perverse demons in some people’s heads have made them advocate and share these ideologies, implement such policies, and support the regimes that have perpetrated this… I cannot think of the single, accurate word that in itself captures the essence and fullness of this evil.

It is not a matter of it being Jews or kulaks, gypsies or Armenians, Hutus or Tutsis, class enemies or racial vermin, religious heretics or godless infidels. Human beings have categorised, classified, and collectivised other groups of individual people under numerous headings that distinguish them as friends or foes, the chosen ones or the unredeemable damned. And some very, very bad things have then happened.

I’ve wanted to understand, why? I’ve wanted to know because I care about ideas and their consequences for humanity, and my vocation includes teaching, talking, and writing about them. However weirdly it, perhaps, sounds, I’ve wanted to know for my own peace of mind in discovering some answer to it all, as well as being able to competently and honestly share the knowledge I have acquired so I could try to explain as best I can to others, especially to my students, about these events and the people who set them all into motion. Students today often know little or nothing about these periods of history, having grown up in a blissful ignorance of all that might be “uncomfortable” for them to know.

Politicians and Media Managers as Gatekeepers

But how can any of this be done by either the interested layman or the professional scholar, in an honest, fair, and reasonable way, if governments and their agents and the accompanying politically obedient media assert a right to be the intermediary keepers of the facts about people and events — for the claimed good of the society?

Are we to return to an earlier, theocratic-type age in which the leaders of organised religion claimed that God’s truth is too profound, too complex, too easily misunderstood to allow the ordinary believer to read his word directly — that there needed to be an elect of appointed intermediaries who would read out the appropriate selected passages, interpret the words, and tell the right lessons to be drawn from God’s message to the world?

Whatever the intentions, that is the implication of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and those in the media who have acquiesced and fallen into line to not link the manifesto of the accused in New Zealand, not to clearly show his face in videos of his appearance in court, and to not allow any and all members of the interested public to know the details or his life, ideas, motives, and actions as they fully come to be known.

How do any of us who want to understand what happened in Christchurch know what the perpetrator’s thinking was? Was he a “right-winger,” a nationalist, a racist, an environmentalist, a pro-Chinese communist? Or some strange and peculiar combination of some or all of them?

If his mind is not put on display in his own words, how are his ideas to be understood, critically analysed, and effectively refuted? Instead, what those ideas are and what any of us in the general public are to know is to be limited to the ideological and intellectual mind sieves of the ones allowed to read what the murderer believed and why it led him to what he did.

Might his own words and ideas, if put on display for anyone to read, be found disturbing, uncomfortable, confusing, revolting, or, for some small number, appealing or persuasive? This is the nature of things, and has been the case since the beginning of recorded history. But, nonetheless, the truth and the facts should be available to whoever wants to read and decide for themselves.

Reality of Slavery Helped to Bring It Down

Should the factual, detailed, and critical accounts written about slavery in the 18th and 19th centuries, including about slavery in the pre–Civil War American South, be expunged from the public stage? Should there only be allowed edited, abridged, and sanitised histories of that period? It was the unvarnished reality and truth of the capture of Africans, their sale on the auction blocks of Zanzibar and West Africa, their cruel and inhuman transportation across the Atlantic, and their life and treatment once in America on the plantations of the slave states that aroused the emotion, the ethical conscience, the moral outrage of more and more ordinary people, all of which helped set the stage for an end to this awful episode in modern world history.

Pro-slavery literature in those years before the American Civil War was generally freely available for distribution and sale in the Northern states, as was the publishing and sale of anti-slavery and abolitionist books and newspapers. The clash of ideas between those calling for a free society and those defending bondage was faced openly and directly.

It was in the Southern states that only pro-slavery literature was allowed to be sold and read; abolitionist literature was prohibited from the U.S. mail in the Old South, and if any was found it was confiscated and burned by slavery enthusiasts. Critics of the South’s “peculiar institution,” whether anti-slavery whites or rebellious black slaves, were subject to violent attack and punishment, including being murdered.

The Necessity for a Free Press and Open Access

A free press and an open intellectual environment is one that should not only challenge the words and deeds of governments in the name of liberty, but should unearth, investigate, and inform the professional and lay public about the realities and truths of the world in which we all live, in both their ugliness and their beauty, in their uplifting acts and their despicable deeds.

Neither the press nor social media suppliers, and most certainly not those in government, should arrogantly presume to protect us from ourselves, either from what they consider to be too “delicate” for the rest of us to handle or which they decide is too evil to allow any publicity. When any or all forms of the media allow themselves, for whatever reasons, to be intimidated and pressured by governments to fall into line in following explicit or implicit guidelines of what the public is to know for “society’s” own good, then history, reality, and truth become hostage to those in political power and the social elites who too often in too many areas of life presume to know what is good for everyone else.

The murderer is without doubt an ideologically twisted and psychologically disturbed person. There is no doubt that the mass killing of innocent people doing nothing more than going about their peaceful business of following their faith in houses of worship was and is a despicable act that has traumatised many around the world and left an irreparable scar on the friends and loved ones of the murdered and injured.

But covering up or censoring or abridging information about the events and its details will not reverse what happened, or take away the hurt from those touched by it all, or stop other nuts and fanatics from doing such acts again in the future, however much we may wish that good-intentioned limits on what people are allowed to know will hinder or prevent such cruel deeds.

It merely sets political precedents and social practices of imposed or self-censoring silence in the face of mass killings like this one in New Zealand that will only reduce the spirit and power of open discussion and debate for people within and between generations to comprehend and understand the causes and dangers in the actions of people tempted and guided by collectivist, tribal, and group-identity ideas.

And we shall all be left more ignorant, less powerful, and more controlled by others inside and outside government who presume to know what’s good for us, including what we should be allowed to know and feel and try to understand.

* * * * * 

Richard M. Ebeling, an AIER Senior Fellow, is the BB&T Distinguished Professor of Ethics and Free Enterprise Leadership at The Citadel, in Charleston, South Carolina.
This post first appeared at the AIER blog, and appears by permission. It has been lightly edited for context, and the murderer's name removed.
Quotes from the manifesto appear from earlier media reports. According to the statement by Chief Censor David Shanks, this does not amount to a breach of the FVPCA -- which "
in many respects [makes[ Mr Shanks’s ban pretty futile anyway, as he more or less acknowledges in his statement"


RELATED READING:
EXCERPT: According to Parliament, the “public good”, and what might risk being injurious to it, is a matter for “expert judgment”. What was Parliament thinking, other than passing the buck and abdicating its own responsibility?
And what expertise then is required to be appointed as Chief Censor? Well, none really. Section 80 of the Act deals with that appointment, and all you really need is a Minister of Internal Affairs to nominate you, and the concurrence of the Minister of Women’s Affairs (why?) and the Minister of Justice. The relevant sub-section notes that

    "In considering whether or not to recommend to the Governor-General the appointment, under subsection (1), of any person, the Minister shall have regard not only to the person’s personal attributes but also to the person’s knowledge of or experience in the different aspects of matters likely to come before the Classification Office."
Nothing about political philosophy, nothing about the theology of the body, nothing about the family, not about history, nothing about the political or judicial traditions that have underpinned our society for centuries. Nothing really that gives an appointee any real expertise in determining “the public good” – and in fact, given that Chief Censors have tended to come from the Wellington bubble, probably less well-equipped to assess “the public good” (as citizens might define it) than the first 100 names in the phone book. 
What of Mr Shanks specifically, the incumbent (and relatively new) Chief Censor? His background is almost entirely as a lawyer for government departments, and then as HR and corporate manager for one in particular (MSD). There is nothing there that suggests any particular ‘knowledge or expertise’ in the substantive matters his office deals with (sex, violence, horror….or terrorism), let alone any background or expertise that gives us any reason to suppose he could “expertly” (or otherwise adequately) define “the public good” for the rest of us. Almost his entire career has been built around enabling ministers to do their thing. Nothing in his background suggests any interest in, or passionate commitment to, an open and accountable free society... Read more.


I take issue with a number of aspects of our censorship law, including some which have application in this area. A group like the Free Speech Coalition will have my backing for many possible campaigns against aspects of the law, but for today, I don’t need to get into these. It seems clear to me that, even accepting that everything the censor has said about this manifesto is true, his decision does not properly balance the rationale he gives for trying to stop widespread availability of this documents with the proper place of the news media in an open democracy.

The decision appears to be wrong, and if any journalist or news media organisation wants help challenging this decision before the Film and Literature Board of Review, I am happy to offer mine. Read more.

Since the Friday attacks: We've had armed police on the streets ... They're shifting the Cuba Dupa festival indoors... Simon Bridges wants an inquiry into security services, and to increase their powers. Seems odd to want the latter before the former's been done... Police Minister, wants a gun registry. Canada's was advertised at $125 million in the 1990s, wound up costing $2 billion, and was scrapped as being useless.
None of this is the Outside of the Asylum.

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Monday, 6 March 2017

“The argument over the strength of global warming shows how difficult climate research really is.”

 

Slowdown-infographic1 (1)

After a winter in Dubai replete with chilly rain and even snow, folk there suggest this “seems to affirm the UN’s admission in 2013 of a decline in temperature rises…. So what do the experts say?” Answer from Robert Matthews, visiting professor of science at Aston University, Birmingham, writing in the Emirates newspaper The National: It’s complicated:

From the strange, barely predictable temperature changes in the Pacific, known as El Nino, to random upheaval, global warming is not the only influence on the weather.
    And according to some, it may no longer be the threat it once was.
    The idea that global warming may be grinding to a halt has been around for a decade, and is based on data collected from thousands of weather stations around the world. When plotted against time, the temperature measurements produce a zig-zag pattern, with some years cooler and others warmer than before. The long-term direction is clear enough, however: upwards.
    But around 2007, some researchers began pointing out that the trend seemed to be breaking down.
    Initially, many dismissed the claim as simply part of a denialist agenda to discredit the concept of global warming. Yet, as the years rolled by and more data came in, it became harder to dismiss.
    In 2013, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agreed that a slowdown was under way. The data pointed to a warming rate from 1998 onwards that is barely half that of the previous half-century’s.
    And for reasons unknown, the slowdown had not been predicted by computer models of the climate.

There is a lot the climate models have not predicted. Indeed, they are the only place where catastrophic warming is actually seen.

Yet for years, even as  their models were predicting outrageous warming, they had to be so severely adjusted to fit existing temperature records it rendered them all but unserviceable.  Last month we told the story now revealed of how, in an effort to remove the slowdown, scientists at NOAA reversed the process: adjusting the data to fit their models.

Matthews recounts the story, concluding “the continuing debate does highlight the limitations of science as a means of checking ‘alternative facts.’ Those involved in research know that the scientific process is shockingly simple to subvert – inadvertently or otherwise.”

… The argument over the strength of global warming shows how difficult climate research really is.

In short, it’s not what you’d really call :”settled science.”

[Pic: Global Warming Policy Forum]

Monday, 3 October 2016

Quote of the Day: On broad expertise

 

“Expertise in one field does not carry over into other fields. But experts often think so. The narrower their field of knowledge the more likely they are to think so."
~ Robert Heinlein

[Hat tip Phil Oliver]

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