Showing posts with label #TopTen2016. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #TopTen2016. Show all posts

Thursday, 12 January 2017

Bonus #TopTen: Gareth Morgan goes full retard

 
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One of these men is correct …

I CONFESS THAT THE ABOVE HEADLINE IS not totally accurate. Sam Morgan’s dad actually went full retard a long time ago. The latest manifestation of his retardness (and mind you it’s not even lunchtime yet, so there may be further incidents) is his response to Paul Henry’s confrontational interview with him and Jamie Whyte’s on-the-button critique of Morgan’s hoped-for tax grab from home-owners.

(Good advice may be not to feed the troll, since he’s only enjoying the attention. But since his sins are so egregious, and so fundamental, I can’t not.)

"No wonder Jamie Whyte and Paul Henry are whingeing" says Captain Morgan, "they and their rich mates love tax loopholes." So no trace there at all of the pandering to envy that both accused him of, is there. Nor of accuracy, since it is hardly a “loophole” that successive governments have elected not to take income tax from home-owners who may not even have one. It’s a policy. A fairly sensible one.

What’s not sensible is Morgen-pere’s response to his critics. A better word would be “unhinged.” What gets him most unhinged is them attacking him on what he thinks is his ground: on economics. He reserves special scorn for Whyte’s attack as coming from someone with only a qualification in philosophy (“he is a philosopher” he sniffs parenthetically, whose “lack of economics background leads him to a fundamental error”).

And yet a qualification in philosophy would be ideal to critique both Morgan’s claim and his whinging – since his whole argument is based on a fundamental philosophical error to which contemporary economists so frequently fall into, and his whole policy is aiming at what he claims is an ethical outcome – surely a province in which a philosopher should dare to tread, but must. (A fundamental economists’ error being to forget that their science, like every science, does have a philosophical base.)

SO TO CRITIQUE WHAT Morgenthau says is the philosopher’s “fundamental error”:

I am not proposing to tax the opportunity cost of assets as Whyte claims, I am proposing to tax imputed rental… Imputed rental is the benefit you actually (not potentially) get from owning an asset because you don’t have to rent it. Because no cash changes hands, it is far more tax efficient to own assets rather than put the money in the bank and use the interest to rent the asset (like a house). Hence the rich store their wealth in lots of assets that they can use, and legally avoid paying tax. Why join an expensive tennis club when you can put a tennis court in the back yard?

But as one wag says, “If you pay to build a tennis court in your backyard, you get the benefit of not having to pay membership fees to the tennis club. If you join a tennis club, you get the benefit of not having to pay to build a tennis court in your backyard.
Why does Morgan want to tax one of these benefits but not the other?” And as Whyte responds,

How can you have a "deemed rate" if you are taxing actual benefits received and not the some assumed opportunity cost?

Reisman1This is the incoherence of Morgan’s incoherence. This is the crux. Morgan claims to be taxing actual benefits, yet he needs someone to deem what these benefits actual are because, well, they don’t actually exist. This indeed is the very problem at the very heart of the whole concept of imputing incomes: that these incomes don’t actually exist, and in glossing over this point – or trying to – Morgan wants people to pay his tax who have no actual income with which to do so.

Which means they will need to take out either a reverse mortgage on their house in favour of the IRD, or to ship out.

ECONOMIST GEORGE REISMAN EXPLAINS the mote in Gareth’s eye, which (being about the crucial difference between existence and non-existence) as much philosophical as economic:

The doctrine of imputed income openly and systematically avows that the absence of a cost constitutes income… Contemporary economics thus deals in non-existent incomes … which it treats as though they existed.  It’s formula is that money not spent is money earned… [this position] turn[s] out to be riddled with contradictions and absurdities. [Capitalism

Being riddled with contradictions and absurdities is a fair description of Morgan’s policy proposal, in large part for the reason that Reisman lasers in on. It amounts to:

It seems to be 'you own a house, so we'll tax you on the money you're not paying in rent'. I can't see how that's any different from 'you have a vegetable garden so we'll tax you on the money you're not spending at the supermarket' or 'you walk everywhere so we'll tax you on the money you didn't use to buy a car or catch the bus'.*

It’s true, as Morgan says, that contemporary economics measures these fantasy incomes as part of its national accounting.

Many countries in Europe [says Morgan] tax imputed rental already alongside other imperfect wealth and housing taxes. Imputed rental is even in our national accounts – so that we can compare our national income with that of Germany or Switzerland which have much lower rates of home ownership.
    Imputed rental is income like any other, but we don’t tax it... If Henry or Whyte could demonstrate they have even a basic grasp of national accounts … I’d consider them worthy commentators. They can’t.

Well, speaking for the philosopher, they can. Economist George Reisman’s knowledge of national accounts on this score is both impeccable, and highly critical. The fact that contemporary economics measures them as part of its national accounting does not make the fantasy incomes any more real. It just makes the error more egregious. I won’t labour the point here (but I will direct you if interested to pages 456-459, 461-462, and 476 of Reisman’s free online book for the wider and most fascinating econo-philosophical discussion). Instead, I will simply point out that once the conceptual error is imbibed, the economic and moral error committed by Morgan made by follows as a matter of course:

At the base all these absurdities is the failure to realise the importance of earning money as the means of living in a division-of labour society. As a result of this failure, contemporary economics [and contemporary economists like Morgan and those on his payroll] does not consider the earning or non-earning of money to be a significant matter.

But it is. It is of crucial importance. Says Whyte:

[Morgan] says he is offended by the fact that some incomes are taxed and others (such as living in your own home) are not. So he claims he is doing the opposite of what you say. He is taxing assets so as to tax [fantasy] incomes.

Whyte offers an example to make the absurdity plainer:

As the basis of tax policy … the idea leads to absurdity or even atrocity. A woman might benefit from having voluntary sex with her husband. She could have bought that sex from a prostitute. If she had, the government would have received tax from the prostitute’s income. So a woman who has sex with her husband is a “tax loophole cowboy”, as Morgan puts it. I am keen to meet someone who will say that people who have untaxed sex with their wives are enemies of the people and that the government should tax sex between husbands and wives.
    Dr Morgan has no plan to tax sex with non-prostitutes, of course. But it is an arbitrary violation of the principle that allegedly motivates his policy. The principle that all “income” should be taxed, whether it comes in cash or kind, will still be violated all over the place if Dr Morgan wins the next election. The only difference is that these violations will more closely match Dr Morgan’s views about what people should do for themselves and what they should buy.

Do we really want to be violated by Dr Morgan’s views about what we should and shouldn’t do, based on a fantasy of his profession’s making?

AND WHAT OF SO-CALLED FAIRNESS? – that illusive claim for which Morgan says makes his proposed tax grab so all-fired necessary (it apparently being “fair” to steal from folk on the basis of an income that doesn’t exist).

Reisman nails that himself in pointing out that what creates the inequality through capital gain that Morgan decries is the rampant monetary inflation that Morgan, in other writing, so strongly supports. [READ: ‘How Inflation Creates Inequality Through Capital Gains’]

And Whyte nails it too in his response, which addresses the “distortion” that Morgan confuses for a loophole:

There is an element of truth in the Morgan … position. Our current tax system is “distortionary”, most notably, by favouring consumption over saving and DIY over paying for labour. The culprit in the case of the pro-consumption distortion is the double taxation of capital income (you earn it from savings made from your already-taxed income). The pro-DIY tax incentive is created by the fact that income tax and GST apply only to observable monetary transactions. (Minimum wages also encourage DIY). The answer is to eliminate capital income taxes (a standard view in the economics of public finance, btw) and to reduce income taxes/GST (which are almost the same thing over the long-run, since all income is eventually spent).
This would also help the poor, who Dr Morgan seeks to benefit. These reductions in taxation would encourage productive investment, employment and, thereby, economic growth. Which is the only thing that has ever seriously improved the lot of the poor.
Dr Morgan often says that economic prosperity is impossible without “fairness”, by which he means equality of income and wealth. Ask someone from China if she agrees. 50 years ago, all Chinese were equally poor (except Communist Party big-wigs). Today, inequality is far greater. Yet even the relatively poor in China are far better off.

Game, set and match to Whyte and Reisman?


* So as Reisman argues, this false concept of imputed incomes “constitutes a kind of conceptual bridge” that helps support the whole Marxian exploitation theory on which Morgan relies for his very concept of fairness. Not an accident then.

Making a late run that top-ten most-popular posts at the country’s fourth-most read political blog was this end-of-year offering on the retarded father of Sam Morgan … which you have reposted today as a special start-of year bonus. (Don’t thank me, just throw money.)


Tuesday, 10 January 2017

#TopTen | No. 1: Why Mises “should be awarded an immediate posthumous Nobel Prize indeed, more than one”

 

Last year’s most popular post here at New Zealand’s fourth-most read political blog was … a surprising one. A post from October about as far from clickbait as you could get: a noble post about an unlikely hero; a noble post. You might even say it was a post about a Nobel here, or should have been …
Why Mises “should be awarded an immediate posthumous Nobel Prize indeed, more than one”
Tributes by Lawrence Reed and Richard Ebeling

_Mises

As the Nobel committee considers who it may name on Monday as this year’s recipient of the  The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel –and others debate who should receive it now and in the past -- two tributes are paid to the economist who most deserved the award but was never be so honoured, and to his magnum opus with which every thinking human being should be familiar.

What Mises’s Human Action Means to Me
From the foreword to the new digital edition of Human Action,
by Lawrence Reed

Forty-six years ago, I enrolled as a freshman at Grove City College in Pennsylvania for one reason. His name was Dr. Hans F. Sennholz, one of only four individuals ever to earn a PhD under the tutelage of Ludwig von Mises [the other three were Israel Kirzner, Murray Rothbard, and George Reisman – Ed.]. Sennholz was himself an extraordinary and inspiring professor, but the special magic of his lectures came from knowing that I was getting my economics just one generation removed from the master himself. I was enthralled on a daily basis. [I felt something of the same by undertaking Reisman’s suberb Programme of Self-Education in EconomicsEd.]

Mises1Ludwig von Mises remains not only the pre-eminent economist of the Austrian school, but also a towering figure within the science of economics itself. It is a tragic oversight that a Nobel Prize never came his way while the award has often been bestowed upon individuals of fewer insights and lesser consequence.

If only the world appreciated how he brilliantly and thoroughly demolished socialism nearly a century ago, millions of early deaths and untold misery could have been avoided in the decades since. Fifty Nobels would be insufficient to appropriately honor the man, but the world we know is hardly fair.

Mises and FEE

Diving into Human Action as a student of Sennholz in the 1970s, I found Mises challenging. I had little if any prior knowledge of such terms as “praxeology,” “a priori reasoning,” “catallactics” and a host of others I was confronting for the first time. I found many of his other works more accessible, such as The Theory of Money and Credit; Socialism; Bureaucracy; Planned Chaos; and The Anti-Capitalist Mentality.

Mises2But with Human Action, his magnum opus, [a new digital edition now available for free downloadEd.] Mises was aiming at high-brow intellectuals who exercised great influence by animating others, namely, the so-called “second-hand dealers in ideas” who sway the masses that make up the general public. So when you read Human Action, you’re not reading newspaper column material; you’re reading the original wisdom that a professor absorbs before he teaches the student who becomes the columnist.

Mises occupies a special place in the history of the organisation I lead, the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE). Human Action itself was published only when our founder Leonard E. Read agreed to buy nearly the entire first print run and distribute it. This is what kicked off the book to become a big seller for many decades. Read gave Mises writing projects and kept his books in print, and boosted his professional standing among many donors and journalists in America.

Within a decade after his emigration to the U.S. in the wake of the Nazi onslaught in Europe, he felt “at home” in our ancestral mansion in Irvington, New York, where he was a frequent lecturer. FEE, notably trustee Lawrence Fertig, helped support Mises in the years he taught classes and seminars in nearby New York City.

Read was profoundly influenced by the man and his ideas, as was long-time FEE staff member and Mises biographer, Bettina Bien Greaves. In all the years that the name “Mises” was virtually synonymous with “Austrian economics,” FEE and Mises were joined at the intellectual hip. His image prominently adorns a wall of honor in our new Atlanta, Georgia headquarters.

The Legacy of a Masterpiece

In 1978, five years after Mises passed away, Nobel laureate and fellow Austrian economist F. A. Hayek reflected on his late mentor:

Though I learned that he (Mises) usually was right in his conclusions, I wasn’t always satisfied by his arguments, and retained to the end a certain critical attitude which sometimes forced me to build different constructions, which however, to my great pleasure, usually led to the same conclusions. I am to the present moment pursuing the questions which he made me see, and that, I believe, is the greatest benefit one scientist can confer on one of the next generation.

So it is indeed with great pleasure that we at FEE present this digital version of a classic in economics, Human Action, to new generations of readers.

Human Action: A Timeless Masterpiece
From the introduction to the new digital edition,
by Richard Ebeling

Ludwig von Mises’s majestic magnum opus, Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, was published on September 14, 1949. In the nearly seven decades since its appearance, Human Action has come to be recognized as one of the truly great classics of modern economics.

Mises3Often a "classic" means a famous book considered to have made important contributions to a discipline that is reverentially referred to but is rarely ever read. In economics, Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations is the typical example of such a work. Every economist has heard of the "invisible hand" and the notion of self-interest furthering the public interest through the incentive mechanism of the market, but probably few economists nowadays have actually read more than a handful of snippets and brief passages from Smith's treatise. [More’s the pity – Ed.]

However, Human Action uniquely stands out as a classic in the literature of economics. Not only among Austrian economists but also for a growing number of other people, Mises's brilliant treatise continues to be read and taken seriously as a cornerstone for understanding the nature of the free society and the workings of the market economy.

It has taken on even more significance in these early decades of the twenty-first century precisely because of the economic crises through which the world has been passing. It rings just as relevant today as when it was published in 1949 because the issues that Mises dealt with in Human Action and in many of his other works still dominate the public-policy discourses of our own time.

The World When Human Action was Published

It is perhaps useful to recall the state of the world when Human Action appeared in 1949. The Soviet system of central economic planning had been imposed on all of Eastern Europe. In Asia, Mao Zedong’s communist armies were just completing their conquest of the Chinese mainland. In Western Europe, many of the major non-communist governments were practicing what one free market critic called “national collectivism” – a form of repressed inflation with price and wage and foreign exchange controls, and Keynesian influenced “full employment” policies with deficit spending and “easy money.”

Mises5In Human Action, Ludwig von Mises opposed every one of these trends and policies, plus many others in contemporary social philosophy, philosophy of science, and economic theory and method. He challenged the foundations, logic, and conclusions of every facet of twentieth century collectivism.

In 1949, Mises’s arguments were often ignored or scorned as the reactionary misconceptions of a man out-of-step with the more “progressive” ideas and economic policies of the postwar period. In this second decade of the twenty-first century, however, it is evident that it was Mises who understood far better than the vast majority of the contemporary economists and policy advocates the fundamental flaws in socialism, interventionism, and the welfare state.

Mises, the Enlightenment-Like Philosopher

Human Action was the revised and improved outgrowth of an earlier German-language treatise, Nationalökonomie, which Ludwig von Mises had published in May 1940 while he was still living in Geneva, Switzerland, after fleing the Nazis and shortly before he permanently moved to the United States.

Mises’s friend and fellow Austrian economist, Friedrich A. Hayek, said in a review of the earlier German version:

There appears to be a width of view and an intellectual spaciousness about the whole book which are much more like that of an eighteenth century philosopher than that of a modern specialist. And yet, or perhaps because of this, one feels throughout much nearer reality, and is constantly recalled from the discussion of technicalities to the consideration of the great problems of our time . . . It ranges from the most general philosophical problems raised by all scientific study of human action to the major problems of economic policy of our time.

A few months later another review appeared, this one by Walter Sulzbach, a prominent free market German economist then living in the United States. He, too, emphasised the uniqueness of the man and the work. “Mises has written a remarkable book,” Sulzbach said.

Few economists of our generation can boast of a similar achievement. It is the work of a man who combines an immense knowledge of economic history, economic theories and present-day facts with a thoroughly logical mind.

And as Mises’s American student and friend, Murray Rothbard explained many years after the first appearance of Human Action:

‘Human Action’ is it: Mises’s greatest achievement and one of the finest products of the human mind in our century. It is economics whole . . . In addition to providing this comprehensive and integrated economic theory, ‘Human Action’ defended Austrian economics against all of its methodological opponents, against historicists, positivists, and neoclassical practitioners of mathematical economics and econometrics. He also updated his critique of socialism and interventionism.

Another friend and student George Reisman was more direct in his tribute paid on the 100th anniversary of Mises’s birth:

Von Mises is important because his teachings are necessary to the preservation of material civilisation…
    [W]hen von Mises appeared, there was virtually no systematic intellectual opposition to socialism or defense of capitalism. Quite literally, the intellectual ramparts of civilisation were undefended. What von Mises undertook, and which summarises the essence of his greatness, was to build an intellectual defense of capitalism and thus of civilisation…
    Von Mises's two most important books are ‘Human Action’ and ‘Socialism,’ which best represents the breadth and depth of his thought. [These are not for beginners, however. They should be preceded by some of von Mises's popular writings, such as ‘Bureaucracy’ and ‘Planning For Freedom.’] …
Mises8    Von Mises must be judged not only as a remarkably brilliant thinker but also as a remarkably courageous human being. He held the truth of his convictions above all else and was prepared to stand alone in their defense. He cared nothing for personal fame, position, or financial gain, if it meant having to purchase them at he sacrifice of principle. In his lifetime, he was shunned and ignored by the intellectual establishment, because the truth of his views and the sincerity and power with which he advanced them shattered the tissues of fallacies and lies on which most intellectuals then built, and even now continue to build, their professional careers…
    Today, von Mises's ideas at long last appear to be gaining in influence …
    Von Mises's books deserve to be required reading in every college and university curriculum not just in departments of economics, but also in departments of philosophy, history, government, sociology, law, business, journalism, education, and the humanities. He himself should be awarded an immediate posthumous Nobel Prize indeed, more than one. He deserves to receive every token of recognition and memorial that our society can bestow. For as much as anyone in history, he laboured to preserve it. If he is widely enough read, his labors may actually succeed in helping to save it.

Ludwig von Mises’s Life and Career

Ludwig von Mises was born in Lemberg, Austria-Hungary on September 29, 1881. Though originally interested in history, shortly after entering the University of Vienna in 1900 he turned to economics after reading Principles of Economics by Carl Menger, the founder of the Austrian School of Economics. While at the university he studied with Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, the person perhaps most responsible for establishing the internationally respected reputation of the Austrian School in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. In 1906 Mises was awarded a doctoral degree in jurisprudence (at the time economics was studied as part of the law faculty at the University of Vienna).

Beginning in 1909, Mises was employed at the Vienna Chamber of Commerce, Crafts and Industry as an economic analyst within the department of finance, rising to the position of a senior secretary with the Chamber in the years between the two World Wars and played a prominent role in the economic policy discussions in the Austria of the 1920s and 1930s. Living in an ideological environment dominated by socialist, interventionist and increasingly totalitarian ideas, his was mostly a rearguard defense of classical liberal and free market policies.

Mises7In 1934, Mises was offered and accepted a position as Professor of International Economic Relations at the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. It was shortly after arriving in Geneva that he set about a project that he had long had in mind, the writing of a comprehensive treatise on economics that finally became Nationalökonomie, and then Human Action, in its final and finished form.

After arriving in the United States in 1940, he settled in New York City, eventually being appointed as a visiting professor in the Graduate School of Business at New York University a position he held until retirement at the age of 89, in 1969. Ludwig von Mises passed away on October 10, 1973, at the age of 92.

The Meaning and Logic of Human Action

In the late 1920s and early 1930s, Mises wrote a series of essays in which he argued that economics was a distinct science derived from the insight that all social processes arise from the choices and actions of the individual participants in the social and market order. Attempts to reduce conscious and intentional human conduct to the physical methods of the natural sciences would not merely distort any real understanding of human decision-making and activity, it would create a serious false impression that social and market processes could be manipulated and controlled in more or less the same manner as inanimate matter in a laboratory experiment.

Mises21In Human Action, this theme was refined and fully developed. All of the social processes have their origin in and can be reduced to the actions and reactions of individual human beings. Being human himself, the social scientist can draw upon a source of knowledge unavailable to the natural scientist: introspection. That is, the social scientist can look within and trace out the logic and formal characteristics of his own mental processes.

As Mises expressed it, “action” is reason applied to purpose. By understanding the logic of his own reasoning processes, the social scientist can comprehend the essentials of human action: that man, as a conscious being, invariably finds some aspects of his human condition unsatisfactory; he imagines ends or goals that he would like to attain in place of his present or expected circumstances; and he perceives methods or means to try to achieve them.

But he soon discovers that some of the means with which he could attain ends are limited in quantity and quality relative to their potential uses. Hence, man is confronted with the necessity to choose among the desired ends and has to set some aside either for a day or forever, so those means may be used for the pursuit of other ends to which he has assigned greater importance or significance.

Mises22Few human decisions, however, are completely categorical, that is, either/or. Most are incremental, that is, giving up a little bit of one attainable end so as possibly to attain a little bit more of some other desired end; thus, most choices are made at the “margin.”

From these elementary and self-evidently true foundations, Mises argued, all the complex theorems of economics can be, in principle, traced out. And this he attempts to do in Human Action with razor-sharp reasoning and often biting rhetoric in response to critics.

The “laws” of economics, Mises insisted, are not open to quantitative verification or falsification or prediction. The laws of economics, in other words, as Mises explains in careful detail in Human Action, are logical, not empirical, relationships. Why? Because man has volition, free will, the ability to change his mind and imagine new possibilities that make his actions and responses in the future different in their concrete form from what they were yesterday or today. Hence, the search for a quantitative economics for deterministic prediction of what men and markets will do today, tomorrow, or a year from now is the pursuit of the unattainable.

The Law of Human Association and the Market Economy

For Mises, one of the greatest accomplishments of mankind was the discovery of the higher productivity arising from the division of labour. The classical economists’ analysis of comparative advantage, under which specialisation in production increased the qualities, qualities and varieties of goods available to all participants in the network of exchange, was more than merely a sophisticated demonstration of the mutual gains from trade.Mises23

In Mises’s view, as he expressed it in Human Action, the law of comparative advantage is in fact “the Law of Human Association.” The mutual benefits resulting from permanent and extensive specialisation of activities was the origin of society and the starting point for the development of civilisation.

That is why a central concept throughout Human Action is Mises's insistence on the essential importance of economic calculation.

The rationality of the market economy arises from its ability to allocate the scarce means of production in society for the most efficient satisfaction of consumer wants in a complex system of division of labour: that is, to see to it that the means at people’s disposal are applied to their most highly valued uses as expressed in the free choices of participants in the market. This requires some method through which alternative uses for those scarce means and their relative value in those competing applications can be discovered.

Economic Calculation as the “Compass” of Market Action

In the early decades of the twentieth century, socialists of almost all stripes were certain that the institutions of the market economy could be done away with – either through peaceful democratic means or violent revolution – and replaced with direct government ownership or control of the means of production with no loss in economic productivity or efficiency.

Mises's landmark contribution in his earlier work, Socialism (1922) was to demonstrate that only with market-based prices expressed through a medium of exchange (money) could rational decision-making be undertaken for the use and application of the myriad means of production to assure the effective satisfaction of the multitudes of competing consumer demands in society.

"Monetary calculation is the guiding star of action under a system of division of labour," Mises declared in Human Action, where he refined his argument and replied to his collectivist critics. "It is the compass of the man embarking on production." 

The significance of the competitive process, as Mises had expressed it in his earlier volume, Liberalism (1927), is that it facilitates "the intellectual division of labor that consists in the cooperation of all entrepreneurs, landowners, and workers as producers and consumers in the formation of market prices. But without it, rationality, i.e., the possibility of economic calculation, is unthinkable."

Economic Irrationality of Central Planning and Interventionism

Such rationality in the use of means to satisfy ends is impossible in a comprehensive system of socialist central planning, once again he insisted in Human Action. Mises asked, how will the socialist planners know the best uses for which the factors of production under their central control should be applied without such market-generated money prices?

Mises24Without private ownership of the means of production, there would be nothing (legally) to buy and sell. Without the ability to buy and sell, there would be no bids and offers, and therefore no haggling over terms of trade among competing buyers and sellers. Without the haggling of market competition there would, of course, be no agreed-upon terms of exchange. Without agreed-upon terms of exchange, there are no actual market prices. And without such market prices, how will the central planners know the opportunity costs and therefore the most highly valued uses for which those resources could or should be applied? With the abolition of private property, and therefore market exchange and prices, the central planners would lack the necessary institutional and informational tools to determine what to produce and how, in order to minimise waste and inefficiency.

It was for this reason that Mises had declared back in 1931:

From the standpoint of both politics and history, this proof [of the ‘impossibility’ of socialist planning] is certainly the most important discovery by economic theory  . . . It alone will enable future historians to understand how it came about that the victory of the socialist movement did not lead to the creation of the socialist order of society.

At the same time, as Mises demonstrates in Human Action the inherent inconsistencies in any system of piecemeal political intervention in the market economy. Price controls and production restrictions on entrepreneurial decision-making bring about distortions and imbalances in the relationships of supply and demand, as well as constraints on the most efficient use of resources in the service of consumers.

The political intervener is left with the choice of either introducing new controls and regulations in an attempt to compensate for the distortions and imbalances the prior interventions have caused, or repealing the interventionist controls and regulations already in place and allowing the market once again to be free and competitive. The path of one set of piecemeal interventions followed by another entails a logic in the growth of government that eventually could result in the entire economy coming under state management. Hence, interventionism consistently applied could lead to socialism on an incremental basis.

Monetary Manipulation and the Business Cycle

Mises26The most pernicious form of government intervention, in Mises's view, was political control and manipulation of the monetary system. One of Mises’s most important contributions to economics had been in 1912 with his book, The Theory of Money and Credit, followed in 1928 by Monetary Stabilization and Cyclical Policy.

Contrary to both the Marxists and the later Keynesians, Mises did not consider the economy-wide fluctuations experienced over the business cycle to be an inherent and inescapable part of the free-market economy. Waves of inflations and depressions were the product of political intervention in money and banking. And this included the Great Depression of the 1930s, Mises argued.

He offered a richer and more systematic exposition of his theory in Human Action. Under various political and ideological pressures, governments had monopolised control over the monetary system. They used the ability to create money out of thin air through the printing press or on the ledger books of the banks to finance government deficits and to artificially lower interest rates to stimulate unsustainable investment booms.

Such monetary expansions always tended to distort market prices resulting in misdirection of resources, including labour, and mal-investments of capital. The inflationary upswing that is caused by an artificial expansion of money and bank credit sets the stage for an eventual economic downturn. By distorting the rate of interest — the market price for borrowing and lending — the monetary authority throws savings and investment out of balance, with the need for an inevitable correction.

The "depression" or "recession" phase of the business cycle occurs when the monetary authority either slows downs or stops any further increases in the money supply. The imbalances and distortions become visible, with some investment projects having to be written down or written off as losses, with reallocations of labor and other resources to alternative, more profitable employments, and sometimes significant adjustments and declines in wages and prices to bring supply and demand back into proper order.

Mises27The Keynesian revolution of the 1930s, which then dominated economic-policy discussions for decades following the Second World War, was based on a fundamental misconception of how the market economy worked. What Keynes called "aggregate demand failures" (to explain the reason for high and prolonged unemployment) distracted attention from the real source of less-than-full employment: the failure of producers and workers on the "supply side" of the market to price their products and labour services at levels that potential demanders would be willing to pay. Unemployment and idle resources were a pricing problem, not a demand-management problem. Mises considered Keynesian economics basically to be nothing more than a rationale for special-interest groups, such as trade unions, who didn't want to adapt to the reality of supply and demand, and what the market viewed as their real worth.

No Alternative to a Functioning Free Market Economy

Thus Mises's conclusion in Human Action from his analysis of socialism and interventionism, including monetary manipulation, was that there is no alternative to a thoroughgoing, unhampered, free-market economy — and one that included a market-based monetary system such as the gold standard.

Both socialism and interventionism are, respectively, unworkable and unstable substitutes for capitalism. The classical liberal defends private property and the free-market economy, Mises insisted, precisely because it is the only system of social cooperation that provides wide latitude for freedom and personal choice to all members of society, while generating the institutional means for coordinating the actions of billions of people in the most economically rational manner.

But the heart of the interventionist system is government control of the monetary system — indeed, it a system of monetary central planning through the institution of central banking. During the Second World War, the German free-market economist Gustav Stolper, then in exile in America from war-torn Europe, pointed out in his book, This Age of Fables (1942):

Hardly ever do the advocates of free capitalism realise how utterly their ideal was frustrated at the moment the state assumed control of the monetary system…. A ‘free’ capitalism with government responsibility for money and credit has lost its innocence. From that point on it is no longer a matter of principle but one of expediency how far one wishes or permits governmental interference to go. Money control is the supreme and most comprehensive of all government controls short of expropriation.

Stolper went on to say,

There is today only one prominent liberal theorist consistent enough to advocate free, uncontrolled competition among the banks in the creation of money. [Ludwig von] Mises, whose intellectual influence on modern neo-liberalism was very strong, has hardly made one proselyte for that extreme conclusion.

Mises28It is in the pages of Human Action that Mises details the advantages and benefits of a private competitive banking system based on a commodity such as gold. Fortunately, over the last thirty years or so, Mises's analysis and defense of gold-backed, private competitive banking in place of government-monopoly central banking has finally begun to win over a growing number of Austrian economists and other advocates.

Too Big to Fail Means Moral Hazard

Since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the argument often has been made that some banks are too big to fail, that depositors need to have their various types of bank accounts protected and guaranteed, and that the repercussions of allowing the financial markets to adjust to the post-boom reality would be too harsh. Mises responded to these types of arguments in 1928 even before the Great Depression began and again in the pages of Human Action, with a warning about what today is understood as "moral hazard," the danger of reinforcing the repetition of bad decisions by the government bailing out mistakes made in the market:

In any event, the practice of intervening for the benefit of banks, rendered insolvent by the crisis, and of the customers of these banks, has resulted in suspending the market forces which could serve to prevent a return of the expansion, in the form of a new boom, and the crisis which inevitably follows. If the banks emerge from the crisis unscathed, or only slightly weakened, what remains to restrain them from embarking once more on an attempt to reduce artificially the interest rate on loans and expand circulation credit?
    If the crisis were ruthlessly permitted to run its course, bringing about the destruction of enterprises which were unable to meet their obligations, then all entrepreneurs — not only banks but also other businessmen — would exhibit more caution in granting and using credit in the future. Instead, public opinion approves of giving assistance in the crisis. Then, no sooner is the worst over, than the banks are spurred on to a new expansion of circulation credit.

The Continuing Relevance of Mises’s Human Action

Just as there was a huge shift toward more and bigger government in the years leading up to Mises's writing of Human Action, so today there are still many across the political spectrum who a call for a similar expansion of governmental presence and domination of even more of social life, especially in health care, education, and the energy sector — as well as a much greater control over the financial and capital markets.

But where will all the money come from to fund this new gargantuan largess for expanded political paternalism? In the Austria of the interwar period of the 1920s and 1930s, Mises had witnessed and explained the consequences from unrestrained government spending that finally resulted in the "eating of the seed corn" — capital consumption.

Mises29Mises warned of this danger, too, in Human Action, and the fact that there must be a point at which the interventionist welfare state will have exhausted "the reserve fund" of accumulated wealth, after which the consumption of capital becomes the only basis upon which to continue to feed the fiscal demands of the redistributive state. Those currently in political power in the world’s capitals seem hell-bent on bringing this about in the decades ahead.

Many of the political-economic trends since the original appearance of Human Action in 1949 have done nothing, therefore, to diminish the importance of Ludwig von Mises’s insight and profound analysis of the market order and its collectivist alternatives. Indeed, the social, political, and economic conditions of our world today give Ludwig von Mises's treatise a refreshing relevance matched by few other works written over the last century. That is why it is being read by more and more people today, rather than simply being one of those many "classics" collecting dust on a shelf.

If enough people discover and rediscover the timeless truths in the pages of Human Action, the ideas of Ludwig von Mises may well assist us in stemming the growing tide toward an even larger Leviathan State.

 


Lawrence W. Reed is President of the Foundation for Economic Education and the author of Great Myths of the Great Depression and the forthcoming book, Real Heroes: Inspiring True Stories of Courage, Character and Conviction.
Richard M. Ebeling is BB&T Distinguished Professor of Ethics and Free Enterprise Leadership at The Citadel in Charleston, South Carolina. He was president of the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) from 2003 to 2008.
These posts first appeared at the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE), with which Mises was associated, and who have just released a new digital edition of Mises’s classic for both iBook and Kindle:

Mises30
Mises31

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Monday, 9 January 2017

#TopTen | #2: John Key had an unbelievable solution for affordable housing

 

Today I’m blogging last year’s second-most popular post here at EnZed’s fourth-most read political blog, with the strange tale that John Key not only knew that New Zealand had a problem of unaffordable housing, not only did he know the problem was urgent, but he had already announced an unbelievable solution to fix it.
Trouble, was, this was way back in 2007 in one of his major election speeches …


John Key has had an unbelievable solution for affordable housing
11 October, 2016

John Key has an unbelievable solution for affordable housing, which he recognises is urgent – and made more urgent by government inaction. He says as much here in a major speech to the contractor’s federation:

It wasn’t so long ago, in the 1990s, in fact, that New Zealand had a high level of home ownership compared to other countries. Not so anymore. We now have what has been described as the second worst housing affordability problem in the world.
    Make no mistake; this problem has got worse in recent years. Home ownership declined by 5% [in the last five years] to just 62.7%. To put that into context, home ownership for the preceding five years had been stable at 67.4%.
    If you dig down into those numbers a little deeper, some worrying facts emerge. The share of homes owned by people aged 20 to 40 dropped significantly [in that period]. Young people – the people we most want to prevent joining the great Kiwi brain-drain – are really struggling to get onto the property ladder.
    This decline shows no signs of slowing. In fact, on current trends, the crisis will only deepen. Home ownership rates are predicted to plummet to 60% within the next decade. And one of the biggest factors influencing home-ownership rates over the next 10 years will be the difficulty young buyers will have getting into their first home.
    This problem won’t be solved by knee-jerk, quick-fix plans. And it won’t be curbed with one or two government-sponsored building developments.
    Instead, we need government leadership that is prepared to focus on the fundamental issues driving the crisis. National is ready to provide that leadership. Earlier this month I announced our four-point plan for improving home affordability:

    1. Ensuring people are in a better financial position to afford a house.
    2. Freeing up the supply of land.
    3. Dealing with the compliance issues that drive up building costs.
    4. Allowing state house tenants to buy the houses they live in..

National’s goal is to turbo-charge the supply of housing in New Zealand by confronting the fundamental constraints that have kept a lid on it. By contrast, Labour’s instinctive reaction to the housing supply problem is to say the government must get in and build some houses…. I think it’s dangerous for the Government to pretend that developments such as that [government-promoted scheme] at Hobsonville are some sort of panacea to the housing affordability crisis…

Great stuff, don’t you think? Magnificent in today’s context.

Well, let’s get real here. If we want to make houses more affordable for first-home buyers, we need more houses to be built as cost-effectively as possible. Unless the Government thinks it can do the job all by itself, we’re going to need property developers to come on board.
    That means providing a legislative and regulatory environment that makes it cheaper and easier for people to develop and build houses. That helps first-home buyers.
    Going back to basics, supplying a house requires the following things:

     Land to build it on.
     Someone, i.e. a developer, who is motivated to build on that land.
     Regulatory consent to build on that land.
     Resources, i.e. materials and labour, to build the house.

So, it’s safe to assume that when supply is lacklustre then something must be going wrong with one or all of these things. That’s certainly the case in New Zealand:

     There’s been a lack of land available to build on.
     Opportunities for developing the land have been reduced, and the costs of doing so have got bigger.
     Acquiring resource and building consent has got harder and harder and takes longer and longer.
     And resources for building, particularly skilled trades people, have become scarcer.

If we’re serious about increasing housing supply, we need to enhance the incentives to build new houses by addressing these problems. Because, for as long as the costs of development keep rising, housing investment will fall and housing affordability will get worse.
    So, National’s plan for housing affordability tackles these supply-side problems in two main ways. First, by freeing up the supply of land and secondly by dealing with the compliance issues that drive up development and building costs.

Great stuff, I”m sure you’ll agree – and I can’t wait for him to get on with it.

Sadly, however, this was not John Key speaking this week, this month, or even this year.

Not even this decade.

No, it was the Prime Minister speaking in 2007, before he was even Prime Minister.

And this decade? Since you lot voted him in? Since he got the top job? He’s done nothing. Nothing for nine long years.

Nothing to ensure people are in a better financial position to afford a house.

Nothing to free up the supply of land.

Nothing to deal with the compliance issues that drive up development and building costs.

Nothing. Nothing at all.

Zero – apart from a smile a wave and a small litter of panacea projects to grab a headline and do nothing to solve the problem.

Nothing that Labour before him had not already (not) done.

And so, now, nine years later, even fewer people own their own homes, even fewer young people even try to, and we read this in this afternoon’s news …

The Government is tightening the number of residency permits it grants, in a bid to stem rising demand among foreigners to live and work in New Zealand… A spokeswoman clarified that the changes were a bid to pre-empt rising demand for residency, which was forecast to blowout beyond the normal planning range within a few years.

… and this in this morning’s:

The Government is preparing to build tens of thousands of houses for private sale in Auckland as it tries to tackle the city's housing crisis, Finance Minister Bill English says.

More intervention to cure (not!) the results of all the previous intervention (and the failure to fix all the previous intervention) of this government and every other.

A restriction on immigration and one or two government-sponsored building developments, even more panaceas, neither of which will come close to curbing the problem this government’s inaction has caused, and more problems down the rack from both. Not mention the effect on every would-be buyers and would-have-been immigrant.

Market failure? No, it’s not. It’s abject, complete and self-evident government failure. Government failure by the very political party that introduced and administered both the RMA and the Building Actthe two pieces of legislation which have done more than any other to hamstring builders and land-owners and create this torrid mess, two shackles on enterprise that the Bolger Government introduced, that the Shipley Government did nothing to repair, and that the Key Government has never begun doing anything with other than tinker.

And some of you people still support these malodourous, malingering, irresponsible, do-nothing pricks.

It makes me want to turn to heavy drink.

[Hat tip Hugh Pavletich]


Tomorrow, last year’s most popular post by far: a guest rant about a Nobel Prize winner or two …
Join me then.

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Friday, 6 January 2017

#TopTen | #3: A can-kicking ex-PM

 

Today, last year’s third-most popular post here at EnZed’s fourth-most read political blog asking … for all his tremendous popularity, is John Key the almost unique example of a Prime Minister without a legacy?


John_Key_Cartoon-McGrail

In years to come, I suspect, John Key’s long-term legacy will be seen as being the PM who kicked the can down the road.

He was a man who without question understood many of the issues a new government urgently needed to address, and even clearly articulated before his first electoral victory what that government needed to do to address them. Yet he didn’t do any of them. Not one.

Instead he smiled and waved, and he kicked the can on down the road.

John Key said in 2008 that "Nanny State is storming through your front door.” She still is. He did nothing to stop her.

He said (correctly) that in hoovering up well over a third of working New Zealanders and turning them into welfare beneficiaries Labour’s Working for Families programme was “creeping communism.” Yet he never touched it when in office, and the unsustainable welfare programme is now cemented in and generations of children will grow up knowing nothing but mooching as a way of life.

He said that Labour’s election bribe of interest-free loans for student was “unsustainable.” He did nothing about it in office, and the tertiary and student-debt bubble he subsequently oversaw continues to inflate.

He supported Don Brash in his call for One Law for All, and ran on a platform that promised to abolish the Maori seats. Eight years later separatism now, if anything, is worse – partly because his government has been propped up for three terms by MPs holding the very seats he had pledged to abolish.

In his first election, at at time when the global economy had already melted down, his signal policy was a programme of very substantial tax cuts –“a tax cut programme [fully costed and funded] that will not require any additional borrowing” – a “pledge to deliver about $50 a week to workers on the average age” – and a promise not to raise GST. He broke both promises. And taxes remain too high, even as government debt and spending increases.

On present numbers and demographics, superannuation is a ticking time bomb. He knows that. He knew it when he promised not to touch it. And even with explosion coming on, he didn’t. It still ticks – and the sound is getting louder.

He oversaw a disaster-recovery programme in what was the country’s second-largest city that took power away from property owners and vested it in instead in several layers of bureaucracy and grand plans from which the central city is still struggling to recover – if it ever will. It could have been different. But it wasn’t.

Aware back in 2007 that housing was already severely unaffordable, he articulated then an unbelievable solution to fix it. Which might have. Yet he never did any of it it, not one jot. Instead he left the the bubble to inflate, creating serious imbalances, rampant consumption of capital, and leaving a generation locked out of home ownership.

Taking office in 2008 government debt was just over $10 billion. In eight years he has taken it six times higher – with no plans in place for it to retreat.

When he took office the wage gap with Australia made us the poorest ‘Australasian state,’ with the average NZ wage around one-third less than the average Ocker. He made that one of his main tasks. His top job. Eight years later, after refusing to do anything to lift NZ productivity (and refusing to even listen to proposals that might), that wage gap remains the same, and the average Tasmanian still earns more than we do.

This is a man who resolutely refused to make hard decisions. Who elected to promise much, and deliver little.

To smile and wave, while refusing to spend his considerable political capital on what former National leader Don Brash calls “the crunchy issues.”

He's jovial, he's friendly, he's cordial ... he's very much seen as one of us and in that sense he's done a good job. But has he tackled the big issues facing New Zealand? Unfortunately not.

It’s said that Key is respected in Australia for keeping the electorate close while still making significant reform. Yet with respect, what reform?!

If Helen Clark’s inadvertent legacy was to cement in virtually all of the reforms enacted by Roger Douglas, then John Key’s will be to have cemented in hers – while offering none of his own, not one, as any kind of counterweight.

It’s said that NZ is better now than it would have been if any of Key’s opponents had been in power – and, certainly, you have to shudder if you imagine where the likes of a Cunliffe-Norman team would have driven us.

But John Key has done precisely nothing to arrest the slide towards big government that makes the policies of a Clark or Cunliffe possible and the statism they promote still palatable – and when one of their ilk does take over again (and with MMP still in place, against which he refused to campaign, then that is more likely than not sometime soon), they will have a state more swollen after his eight years to play with, and the Clark platform he so carefully maintained to give them a flying start.  As Peter McCaffrey observes from Canada,

for many 'conservatives' who seek to maintain the status quo, that [preservation] can be considered an achievement in and of itself.
But for those of us who are reformers, who think government is too big, who think bureaucracy is out of control, who firmly believe in new ideas and policies, then leaving Helen Clark's status quo largely intact (if not worse in some places), is no success.

New Zealand under John Key was always “on the cusp of something special,” which now with his end is revealed as being only the campaign spin that it was.

He is well liked, and by very many. And with the many parts of the state that needed rolling back, and that instead have been allowed to grow even more tumescent, that is perhaps the very worst thing one could say about a Prime Minister after eight years in office …

Thatcher1

[Hat tips Peter McCaffrey, @caffeine_addict. Key Cartoon by Richard McGrail, Thatcher pic and slogan FNK Creative Workshop.]


Tomorrow, last year’s second-most popular post, on the most pressing can that Key kicked so thoroughly down the road … or tried to.

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Thursday, 5 January 2017

#TopTen | No. 4: Greenpeace & the Greens have a problem with the truth

 

Last year at EnZed’s fourth-most read political blog this was the fourth most popular post asking … if the Greens & Greenpeace have truth on their side, why do they need to lie so much?


If you have the facts on your side, there’s no need to lie. So when you discover activists who regularly make things up out of whole cloth, you have to ask why.

Take Greenpeace and their campaign against Golden Rice, a technology promising to liberate millions from disease. From publishing staged photos and video to faking studies, distributing false and misleading statements and destroying crops, this is the crowd who say we should follow “settled science” when it suits them; and when it doesn’t – as in this campaign – they resort instead to vandalism and lies. In the words of the American Council on Science and Health their campaign against Golden Rise is “made up of Internet hackers and eco-terrorists using fear-mongering to get uneducated people to do their dirty work for them.” Nobel Laureate Sir Richard Roberts simply calls their campaign of lies a “crime against humanity.” 

Let’s explain what they’re up to.

If you are not familiar with it, Golden Rice is the name of a product created when scientists added three genes for producing beta carotene, a Vitamin A precursor, to the 30,000 already in rice. Obviously this is a good thing in countries where Vitamin A deficiency is common.
    Regardless, organisations like Greenpeace and Union of Concerned Scientists have labelled it “Frankenfood.” In the time these groups have helped block its approval, nearly 20 million children have died and another 20 million have suffered preventable blindness…

That’s blood on the hands of Greenpeace and the organisations they mobilise for support” says Hank Campbell at the American Council for Science & Health – and also on the hands of the Green Party, from whence NZ’s current Greenpeace director famously comes.

Greenpeace [continues Campbell] has variously alleged that the levels of beta-carotene in Golden Rice are too low to be effective or so high that they would be toxic. But feeding trials have shown the rice to be highly effective in preventing vitamin A deficiency, and toxicity is virtually impossible. (There’s an internal feedback loop in humans that stops beta-carotene from being converted to vitamin A if levels become too high.)

All trials show the rice to be both effective and safe. So with no science to support its antagonism to genetic-engineered food,

the organisation has been forced to adopt a new strategy: try to scare off the developing nations that are considering adoption of the lifesaving products. Greenpeace has gone so far as to concoct tales of genetically-engineered crops causing homosexuality, impotence and baldness, and of increasing the spread of HIV/AIDS.

There is nothing behind Greenpeace’s fantastic allegations but bluster. Never has been. Yet in press release after petition after protest they have continued  to spout these lies that have helped block approval of this life-saving food. They trade not in science but in fearmongering and innuendo.

Every trick in the Greenpeace playbook has been pulled out to publicise the lies and help bury the science, all of it lapped up by a compliant media, leading 100 frustrated Nobel Laureates this week to “sign an open letter asking Greenpeace and others who have been blocking progress and access to beneficial plant biotechnology products, like Golden Rice, to abandon their campaigns against genetic engineering in agriculture.”

In a letter unveiled at a press conference on June 30, more than 100 Nobel Laureates from diverse disciplines voiced their support for genetic engineering in agriculture and called on NGOs, the United Nations and governments around the world to join them. The Laureates–in fields including Medicine, Economics, Physics, Chemistry, Literature and Peace–all signed an open letter asking Greenpeace and others who have been blocking progress and access to beneficial plant biotechnology products, like Golden Rice, to abandon their campaigns against genetic engineering in agriculture…
    The website accompanying the release documents the global scientific consensus on the safety of GMOs (recently reaffirmed by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the Royal Society of the United Kingdom, and virtually every other authoritative scientific body on the planet). It also documents the abundant and widespread environmental and economic benefits confirmed by the experience of more than 18 million farmers around the world, the vast majority of them small farmers in developing countries.

Greenpeace International's response? They refuse to budge.

And the local rabble, led by former Green Party leader Russel ‘Rustle’ Norman? “The Herald says that “Greenpeace New Zealand could not be reached for comment.”

Someone at the Green Party leadership however could be reached, if not any sign of human intelligence – Greens’ co-leader James Shaw proudly affirming that rather than resile from it the hypocrisy would instead be continued.

Shaw [telling Newstalk ZB] that’s not going to change anything here.

Science being irrelevant to Shaw and his colleagues (not one of whom can even boast an undergraduate science degree).

But on this basis you do have to wonder what would make them change their minds about anything? If not science, then what? As commentator Henry Miller concludes:

It is unclear why Greenpeace—which has also raised money and its profile by bragging about sabotaging efforts to test insect-resistant crops that need less chemical pesticide—persists in some of its mendacious, anti-social campaigns. What is clear is that none is likely to be more harmful to the world’s children than its assault on Golden Rice.
    The real threat to life and limb is not genetic engineering.
It’s the organised-crime organisation called Greenpeace.

And the Green Party.


Tomorrow, I post last year’s third-most popular post here at EnZed’s fourth-most read political blog asking … for all his tremendous popularity, is John Key a unique example of a Prime Minister without a legacy?

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Wednesday, 4 January 2017

#TopTen | No. 5: But how do they *know* NZ is so prosperous? [updated]

 

Last year I wrote and posted 801 posts (“we are the 801”). And here at EnZed’s fourth-most read political blog this was the fifth most popular post: asking all those organisations regularly ranking NZ in their top tens, quite seriously, where exactly they get all their information from?


Have you ever wondered about all these international surveys always quoted so authoritatively?

I have one before me that finds NZ to be the most prosperous country in the world. Issued by something called the Legatum Institute – a think tank founded, we are told, by “a private investment firm headquartered in Dubai” – the survey has been widely reported over the last few days by everybody who would appreciation the headline that “Free markets, free people, and the world’s strongest society ensure that New Zealand takes the top spot in Legatum’s Prosperity Index.”

Great! Right? They say: 

New Zealand has ranked first in the Prosperity Index for six of the last ten years. Bar a small prosperity drop as a result of the 2008 global financial crisis and the immediate impact of the Canterbury Earthquakes, New Zealand’s prosperity has been on an upward trend, particularly since 2012. This rise has been driven by concerted efforts by policymakers, especially in economic and health policy. New Zealand’s Business Environment performance has seen it rise nine ranks to 2nd, and in Health it has risen eight ranks to 12th. Underlying strengths include Economic Quality, particularly free and open markets, where New Zealand ranks 1st, Governance (2nd), Personal Freedom (3rd), and Social Capital (1st).

So break out the bubbly – as many of the commentariat do quite indiscriminately whenever any of these sorts of surveys are released, just as they did when several other surveys were released declaring New Zealand and its cities to be among the world’s happiest, the most prosperous and the most free. All just as breathlessly reported. (Oh, but also the most unaffordable. So there’s that too.)

So, it would all be great news if it were all true, right?  But if you catch yourself wondering about the degree to which we and our markets are truly free or NZ really prosperous, and how these authors would really know any of this -- especially in the detail they claim, down to several significant figures – then you’re not alone.

Me too.

It’s not just this survey. It’s all of them. I pressed one fellow once whose regularly cited “freedom index” alleged New Zealand at the time to be the world’s freest -- earning us their “gold medal for freedom” with scores like 9.6 out of 10 for property rights only a few years after the Resource Management Act had taken most of them away.

After a whole riot of wriggling to try to avoid the questioning, he eventually conceded that much of their data is based on subjective surveys sent out to selected “leaders” in each country. And from that news it didn’t take much more to learn that most of those surveys were completed by local cheerleaders desperately keen to trumpet the virtues of their hometown. (Q: Is your place a hell of place to do business? A: Big tick! Hell, yes!! You’re darn tootin’!)

So, garbage in, and garbage out.

But what about the Legatum Institute’s lovely-looking Prosperity Index?  On what basis precisely do we earn a 68.95 for something called “Social Capital” and an apparently whopping 84.27 for “Governance,” yet only 75.52 for education and a confusing 74.09 for “Natural Environment,” I wondered?

Where specifically do these numbers to that many significant figures come from?

And just how much of this country’s and the 260 others’ natural and business environments they’ve surveyed have the authors actually walked through? Or know anything about?

LegatumAnyone wondering about any of these things will just be left to continue wondering, it seems. The report’s methodology section does have a nice diagram full of words like “selecting the variables,” “standardisation” and “variable weights,” all things you can do at your own desktop once you have your numbers and making things all sound very sciency, and there’s even a nice picture of some kind of machinery (there it is on the right) accompanying an assertion that it is all “methodologically sound.” But of information on where all the numbers being crunched actually come from, we are simply left to scratch our heads and wonder. There is not even a section in the diagram for “gather and assess quality of data.” Which, if you are simply getting your data from subjective surveys of at least 260 very different groups people, you’d think would really, really matter.

Yes, one may read this:

For each country, the latest data available … were gathered on the 104 independent variables.

But how?

And from whom?

One should note the careful use of the passive verb there. “Were gathered.” For the fact is we are never fully told by whom, or even how any particular data was gathered, what data sources were relied on or how reliable (or not) the numbers in the sources may be, nor yet how the numbers from right around the world from (presumably) several thousand different data sources are correlated to all appear on the same scale. It is true that you can download all their data (and all neatly tabulated with to up to seven significant figures!) yet you will never be able to determine, for instance, how that 74.08751 for NZ’s “Natural Environment” was made up, or what objective method was used to give NZ a 84.274 for “Governance.”

I know. I’ve tried.

In their “2016 Methodology Report” we are told in general terms that data for all their 104 variables “are drawn from a wide range of sources including intergovernmental organisations such as the United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and World Health Organization; independent research and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) such as Freedom House, Amnesty International, and Transparency International; and databases compiled by academics.” Which is all very nice as far as it generally goes. And “for the subjective variables,we are told that two major global surveys are relied upon: the Gallup World Poll and the Executive Opinion Survey organised by the World Economic Forum.” (Page 12 to 14 of the report is it when it comes to the explanations you seek, and is literally all of any explanation you are going to find.)

Yet when one does drill down into a few of these sources, even those they themselves call “objective,” one encounters a similar feeling of falling through quicksand with no means of support: the sources there are the often of the same style as this one, with data gathered either subjectively, or not at all, or from surveys like this one relying upon each other for support (Legatum cites Fraser Institute who cite Freedom House who cite Legatum who cite … and on an on). It starts to look less like objective information and more like a circle jerk within which each organisation simply preferences different data or weights all the same data slightly differently. And about the “executive opinion surveys” that seem to be the source of much of this stuff we’ve written before at length: if there’s a better way of giving a good score than inviting local boosters to talk up their marketplaces as places to invest then we haven’t yet discovered it.

So garbage in.

Yet they string all these subjective numbers together to four significant figures, and then total them up to issue press releases and hand out awards, yet just how these rankings are really earned, and where and how the numbers are actually gathered and formed we are never fully and truly told.

We are however given “a detailed description of the imputation techniques” utilised to produce missing data, which the reader may delight in finding in their “2016 Methodology Report.”

So, garbage out.

Are we happy and prosperous down here at the bottom of the South Pacific? Are we the most prosperous place on the planet? The truth is you’ll never know by reading junk like this. You will learn more by simply opening the window and looking around.

UPDATE: See, for what it’s worth this is a whole lot more rigorous than any of these alleged indices:

New Zealand has been named the world's best country by readers of Britain's ‘Daily Telegraph.’
    The winners of the annual ‘
Telegraph’ Travel Awards were voted on by more than 75,000 readers, with New Zealand emerging as the clear winner for the fourth consecutive year.

At least with these awards there’s no pretence about the judgement not being subjective. And with a sample size of 75,000, albeit self-selecting, it’s undoubtedly larger than that used to compile any of these bogus indices.


Tomorrow, I post last year’s fourth-most popular post here at EnZed’s fourth-most read political blog asking … if Greenpeace has the truth on their side, why do they need to lie so much?

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Tuesday, 3 January 2017

#TopTen | No. 6: Friends don’t let friends listen to Stefan Molyneux

 

Last year I wrote and posted 801 posts. This was the sixth most popular: an exposé of a retarded YouTube opportunist with an oft-unlikely following …


Friends Don’t Let Friends Listen to Stefan Molyneux

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ONE OF THE LEAST attractive phenomena in more than a decade of unattractive things is the re-emergence into what passes for polite society of eugenics and explicit white supremacy. Even in places and from people I once thought I knew. (If you’re wondering, then I probably do mean you.) With these people, the only right thing to do is to take the advice above.

Trump is partly to blame. “By launching his campaign on a ‘Mexican immigrants are rapists’’ platform,” Donald Trump flushed these things back up from the sewers and made them safe to talk about again. Turns out that dressing up economic protectionism, white supremacism and tribalism as a defence of western civilisation has flushed out many things once deservedly dead and buried, and many things even in friends (now former friends) you hadn’t realised existed.

But he’s only partly to blame for what was probably already latent, and then encouraged in some folk by the phony equation that being politically incorrect also means being noxious;  the non-thinking that says that if “they” are against it, then “we” must be for it – and anyone else is a “cuck.”  (And never mind even what “it” might be.)  What this unthinking reaction has produced is the non-idea saying the appropriate response to “their” racism is to go hard out on your own.

With some, the racism genuine (and genuinely unwelcome). With others like Stefan Molyneux, it’s more like a career move. Who’s Stephan Molyneux? He’s one of the other reasons you’re seeing more and more of this stuff around. Molyneux is a dickhead with a following that, for some reason, some of you here keep recommending.

For the record, Molyneux makes videos of himself talking. Talking interminably, most often about himself. Hardly riveting. For many years he talked about anarchy, seeking to become a big fish in this small pond. Then, seeing a gap in the much bigger phony guru market, he began telling his young followers to abandon their parents and instead devote their lives, their honour and their sacred fortunes to his cause. Which was his wallet.

His arse very publicly handed to him by a woman known as J. Ravin/“TruShibes,” he hunkered down to re-emerge as a promoter of white supremacy who, I Iament, has become unaccountably influential even with people I formerly knew and/or admired.

Strange are the things people turn to when they think that the world is on fire. Stranger still how they think eugenics and white supremacy would help extinguish and not fan it.

A fellow called Stuart Hayashi has researched Molyneux’s rantings, should you have any doubt these two vile causes are what the wanker promotes, and if you’re wondering why you’re seeing this stuff or Molyneux’s name around the traps so much I can heartily recommend reading the results of Stuart’s recent research. Hayashi identifies two premises the toerag promotes that are rarely expounded together (a strategy of deniability, you see), but when combined form the argument, such as it is:

Premise One: Your genes, as associated with your race, are the main determinant of IQ. That is, your race causes you to have a particular IQ number….
Premise Two: Your IQ number is the main factor determining whether you are economically productive or criminally violent.

From those unprepossessing ingredients Molyneux makes a very unedifying stew: We should therefore deduce, at his behest, that a person’s race is what determines whether they are economically productive or criminally violent, therefore [sic] policies should be adopted to bar the many non-white “low-IQ races” from immigrating, from breeding, and from generally being around in polite company.

These days, in the company “Moly” keeps, this no longer called out-and-out eugenics, or even white supremacy – although that’s precisely what it is. Instead it’s given euphemisms like “race realism” or “human biodeversity,” which is they way you may have heard it promoted on websites and fora in which you once participated – or from people with whom you were once friends.  And while Molyneux is just a vector for this disease, not the main source, he’s been unaccountably influential.

ONE THING RELIED UPON by these later-day apostles of eugenics is an ignorance about the basic distinction between race and culture, about which the great Thomas Sowell has written so widely and so well. Culture, explains Sowell, should be understood as “the working machinery of everyday life” and like any machinery should be open to criticism and improvement. Some cultures are more productive than others, some less; this is true, but as Sowell points out repeatedly, race itself is irrelevant. It’s culture that’s all important.

One of the eugenicists’ main aims however is to collapse this distinction between race and culture, insisting instead that only race is relevant – that the two are deterministically entwined, with IQ being the measure of superiority.

Yes, it truly is this facile. As Robert Tracinski points out, these are people who understand Western civilisation “not as a set of ideas, but as some kind of symbol of their racial identity.”

Hayashi briefly counters this odious nonsense, noting the very basic fact for example that even if you were to accept IQ as any measure of anything (about which there are huge problems) the causal arrow goes from  wealth to performing well in IQ tests, not the other way around.

He then plunges into a veritable long-drop full of excreta that Molyneux has spewed out on this topic since his dramatic rebirth, leading him to the conclusion he broadcasts almost daily, that “because skills and abilities have not been distributed evenly by Mother Nature among various ethnicities,” the only cure to the impending collapse of western countries is closed borders and racial separatism.

It is from him and the likes of him that this sort of stuff comes from.

It’s like a prepper’s version of a national policy.

Why is this important? Because like all variants of tribalism, it is deadly nonsense; yet I know the bile is unaccountably influential because I keep seeing it spewed out in places and around people I once frequented. And friends don’t let friends believe this stuff.

But if they do, there’s a very simple message for you, and it appears at the very top of this post.

Please take it literally.

Intellectual hygiene demands it.

MORE READING:

StefanMolyneuxWarriorGeneRacism02

  • “I take Stefan Molyneux to task for his promoting white supremacism. And I quote him to prove that, yes, that is what he is promoting.”
    Quotations from Stefan Molyneux Showing His Promotion of Eugenics, Pseudoscientific Racism, and Bigotry Against Blacks – Stuart Hayashi, STU-TOPIA
  • “The fetid end of the political spectrum is rising up to support statism in the name of protecting IQ – on the basis, say the fetid-swamp warriors, that the “low IQs” will only destroy the culture and are too dumb to deserve freedom anyway. Vile enough, but does their chosen proxy even merit serious consideration? No.”
    The Intellectual Conceit of IQ Ideology – Jeffrey Tucker, NOT PC
  • “It's not pretty, and it's sad that this person has any influence at all. In summary, and as a TL;DR: the left is bad, so things the left thinks are wrong by definition and opposition to the left is good by definition. [and more: “…the genius of the Trump campaign has been to convince people they’re defying the elites when they live down to the elites’ worst expectations of them.”]”
    The winner of the summarise-Stefan-Molyneux competition – NOT PC
  • “Robert Tracinski ably explains the fetid sewer of support flushed out by Donald Trump – people who understand Western civilisation not as a set of ideas, but as some kind of symbol of their racial identity. They’re calling themselves alt-right; he’s identified them simply as The Other Left. Or even more simply: Yes, The Alt-Right Are Just a Bunch of Racists…”
    “White Sheets and Red Golf Caps” – NOT PC

NB: From now on, I shall be taking this post’s conclusion as my policy on commenting here at NOT PC. The principle of free speech does not demand that I supply eugenicists with a microphone. If you insist on promoting ordure with mine, then fuck off and get your own.

 


Tomorrow, I post last year’s fifth-most popular post here at EnZed’'’s fourth-most read political blog asking … are we really the world’s most prosperous place?