In Which I Take No Pleasure In Being Right

This is what I said in November, when it was Open Season on SNP bloggers:

However, those sneering at the Cybernats, those calling this the SNP's Drapergate should realise that the loudest SNP voices in the blogosphere are a standing rebuttal to every allegation thrown at the SNP (well, I would say that, wouldn't I?) and that we are the first to wonder how to deal with those who (rightly) draw the criticism. And we should all realise that when the original Drapergate scandal hit, we all got tarnished. Every blogger, regardless of party. So if I were them, I wouldn't be dancing on the graves of these blogs or any other. Instead, I'd be standing beside them, in quiet reflection.

Why? Because we don't know which one of us could be next. Let's clean up our own houses first, before we slag off other people's.

Well, that's where Stuart MacLennan, now ex-Labour candidate for Moray comes in, and probably ex-researcher for Pauline McNeill (will Iain Gray expect her resignation as he did Mike Russell's for what Mark had written?) with a bewildering array of tweets, using assorted swearwords to describe David Cameron and Nick Clegg, but also party colleague Diane Abbott (he also talked of a 'good day to bury Stephen Byers'). He also referred to being 'stuck' in the constituency he was standing in, described people as 'chavs' (flying in the face of the class war strategy, perhaps?), referred to people who were basically his neighbours as 'Teuchters' and described the elderly as 'coffin dodgers'.

Now, I'll be honest, if politicians being called rude words is the worst thing that's ever happened to them then they've led sheltered lives. If it needs all this hysteria then frankly, our politicians do need to grow a thicker skin. You are public figures. You are not universally popular. Some people will use naughty words about you. Some will do so on the internet. Get over it.

But to slag off the elderly, and to slag off your neighbours, that's something else. And for a Parliamentary candidate to do it is beyond the pale.

As it happens, Stuart went to university around the time I did and had other foul mouthed pals (including one who was so foul-mouthed that he scarred a friend of mine for life). I also seem to recall him being in the Diagnostics Society. Now when I was at Uni, I was the Debates Convener who had to fend off accusations that the Debates Union was out of touch with... well, the rest of the universe. The Diagnostics Society, however, was in another dimension altogether. And I have to confess, my first encounter with MacLennan did not go well: he was backing a student election candidate who'd make the mistake of announcing in advance his plan to piss all over the election rules and regulations (then complained about being disqualified), a man was also the first student election candidate not to take his own nomination form around for support, having a lackey do it for him. MacLennan was the lackey in question and I, who was not well disposed to his chosen candidate anyway, sent him away with a flea in his ear. Other encounters, however, were affable enough, and I can only assume that he saw the internet in a way that so many people do, as a chance to unleash your inner tosspot.

Well, this is where it's got him.

And look at where it's got Labour: all that protesting about those nasty CyberNats, when they were harbouring their own vicious online attack dogs for far longer - and making them candidates! What will George Foulkes do now?

All that calling on Alex Salmond - who has repeatedly called on the SNP's online supporters to think about what they're posting - to crawl on his hands and knees across Scotland, begging forgiveness for what someone else with a bad mood and a laptop did when they combined the two, when Jim Murphy and Iain Gray instantly dismiss any calls for MacLennan's resignation - until they realise just what a row it's turned into!

All that demanding Mike Russell should be punished for something written by an employee who had a blog of his own - will Iain Gray punish Pauline McNeill in the way he expected the FM to punish the Education Secretary?

I take no pleasure in seeing the torpedoing of Stuart MacLennan's career. He was, at the end of it, a young, daft guy, doing a daft thing, and a wave of utterly idiotic comments have basically ruined his life. That's not something to gloat about.

And I take no pleasure in being right in my warnings that every party should be careful both in its own online dealings and how it deals with the mistakes of other parties.

Stuart thought he could carry on with his daft tweets indefinitely.

Labour thought they could carry on preaching about other people's shortcomings without any of their own coming to light. They saw the various 'CyberNats' as justification to brand the whole SNP as the nasty party - now they're tarred with their own brush. Nasty and hypocritical.

They were both proven wrong, so let me say this again, before anyone else is stupid enough to head for the pulpit about their party's online purity, or daft enough to mouth off when so many people have come a cropper for doing so:

Next time, it could be you.

From Iain Old

Iain Old of the Scottish Politics website (you'll find the link on the right) - it makes for interesting reading:

A 7 % increase for the Lib Dems may look like a good result for them.

However on the 12 th of April they published the following poll of 600 Moray voters:

SNP 35.3%
Liberal Democrats 32.0%
Conservatives 18.4%
Labour 10.2%
Don't Know 4.1%

The difference between this poll and the actual result was:

SNP + 10.9 %
Liberal Democrats - 12.6 %
Conservatives + 4.5 %
Labour - 0.4 %

So either the Lib Dems blew it by 'using altered, manipulated, and wrongly attributed statements of support in its election literature in an attempt to deceive the electorate.' (a quote from the Northern Scot) or their poll was a rogue.

After Dunfermline the Lib Dems claimed there were no "no go" areas for them in Scotland. Based on their performance there, and the above poll, Moray was winnable for them.

In the event, they not only failed to win by even failed to beat the becalmed and scandal hit Tories into third place.

In 1989, Alex Neil increased the SNP vote by 20.3 % in Glasgow Central. The Scotsman's headline was "Triumph for Labour in Glasgow Poll" and "SNP fails to repeat Govan success." It is interesting that there weren't any similar "Lib Dems fail to repeat Dunfermline success" headlines just two months after their Westminster by-election gain.
The reality is that this was indeed a good result for the Lib Dems, but they will be bitterly disappointed that they did not do much better and have lost a golden opportunity to build on Dunfermline.

One distinct possibility is that disillusioned New Labour voters, who might have been natural Tories in the past, are now moving to Labour's coalition partners the Lib Dems. One reason the Lib Dems did not win Moray may be that the Labour vote there was too small to squeeze.

This is something that the SNP needs to beware of. However a moderate swing from Labour to the Lib Dems might benefit a resurgent SNP and make a large number of Labour seats vulnerable.
It is too early to draw any solid conclusions, but the May 2007 election could turn out to be very interesting indeed, and it may well be the end of Labour's dominance of Scottish politics.

Moray Result & Analysis

Firstly, the result: turnout was only slightly down on the election in 2003, at 45.5% from just 46.3%. This means one of the following: that just under half the electorate of Moray are die-hards; that this was a campagin that got people out to vote; or that we're going to see major increases in turnout next year. As for the numbers, Richard Lochhead held the seat for the SNP with 12,653 votes, a majority of 6,385. Mary Scanlon (from the Tories, not that you'd realise until you got a ballot paper, though) took 6,268, representing a slight increase in votes and vote share on 2003. The LibDems' Linda Gorn took 5,310, taking 19% of the vote (up from 12%), while Sandy Keith of Labour took 2,696, only just over half Peter Peacock's poll in 2003. Mev Brown of NHSFirst took 493.

Labour

They were third in 2003, they're the governing party at Holyrood and Westminster, they'd just had a very bad day in UK politics, and anyway it's only a By-Election. Those are the excuses. However, the LibDems were 4th, and in coalition with Labour, and managed to gain an extra 7% compared with Labour moulting 9% of theirs. In short, this was a rout. Combine that wth Dunfermline, Livingston, Cathcart and all the local Council By-Elections and you see a pattern: voters are turning away from Labour in their droves, and their turning to either the LibDems or the SNP depending on who they think can land the heavier blow. Anti-Labour tactical voting is now a reality and if it's repeated next year then Labour are in for a kicking.

SNP

A good night for them: to increase their poll, their majority and share of the vote in a seat they're defending following the death of one of their most popular figures, with what we all assumed was a huge personal vote (it probably still is, but it transferred very easily to Richard Lochhead) is a stellar achievement. It's exactly the sort of momentum-building, morale-boosting victory that the party needed and hasn't had for so long, and the only real disappointment is that they were defending a seat rather than gaining it from another party, so the big question is whether or not they can reproduce this performance in the Central Belt, where they need to make gains next year. Given Labour's unpoularity, though, I suspect they could do well.

Tories

Given the fiasco that was the Tory campaign, with Mary Scanlon making far more enemies and far fewer friends than she ought to, to walk away having made a gain is a relief for them. But a 2% gain is just not good enough, particularly in former Tory territory - even if they did lose Moray as long ago as 1987. What this shows to me is that Scots still aren't ready to switch (or switch back) to the Tories, and that means that they're struggling to be relevant, and their only hope for gains is a total collapse (and dispersal) of the Labour vote. That said, they have picked up a few votes, so it's not all bad news. I think that this justifies my earlier predictions that Goldie will stop the rot, but that progress is still a long way off.

LibDems

It turns out that antagonising the local paper hasn't done them any harm: an increase in vote share of 7% is a pretty good day at the office, particularly when your party came 4th in 2003 and most of your machine is busy with the English local elections. It seems that they're the main beneficiaries of their senior partner's collapse, so I suspect they're picking up votes from people who are sick and tired of Labour, but don't particularly mind the Coalition. However, the LibDems are the masters of the By-Election and it remains to be seen whether or not they can keep this performance up next year.

God Save The Quine

David Petrie (now Tory MSP for the Highlands and Islands) and Maureen Watt (now SNP MSP for NE Scotland) will be sworn in today, replacing Mary Scanlon and Richard Lochhead respectively. Maureen Watt intends to break new ground, by being the first MSP to take the oath in Doric, after taking it in English (hence the headline).

Meanwhile, allegations of dirty tricks abound in Moray, with the LibDems misquoting an article in the local paper to turn a simple report into an endorsement, and the fiasco that is Mary Scanlon's campaign. Firstly, none of her printed materials mention the fact that she's a Tory (I've checked the copies of the leaflets on her website). Secondly, her campaign has involved leaflets that claim to be a hand-written letter from local independent Councillors endorsing her. The problem is, the Councillors didn't write them, and they don't agree with the letters' contents. Not only that, they've sent letters to the wrong places, and sent some of them in the name of people who isn't a Councillor for the relevant ward (in some cases they aren't a Councillor at all!)

So not only is Mary Scanlon's campaign trying to con people, they're getting everything wrong. They're lying and they're incompetent! Doesn't make her and her team a very attractive prospect, does it?

More from Moray

There are a total of five candidates standing:

Richard Lochhead will be defending the SNP's majority against a challenge from the Tories' Mary Scanlon. Labour and the LibDems are both fielding local Councillors, in the shape of Sandy Keith and Linda gorn respectively. The SSP and Greens are conspicuous in their absence (UKIP aren't there either, but their absence isn't all that conspicuous), but Mev Brown (formerly of the Tories, then UKIP) has launched the NHSFirst Party and is its candidate.

Meanwhile, David Petrie takes over Mary Scanlon's role as a Highlands and Islands List MSP, and Maureen Watt replaces Richard Lochhead in the North East, with Alasdair Allan deciding to concentrate on his bid to win the Western Isles next year.

Moray Update

The Presiding Officer has set the date for the Moray By-Election as Thursday 27 April, one week before Local Elections in England.

This By-Election is a first for the SNP: it's the first time they're defending a seat in one, rather than trying to win it. Clearly, Margaret Ewing had a strong personal vote, but as the main Opposition party, they should be in a position to hold on fairly comfortably, and it's likely that Richard Lochhead's break from the Scottish Parliament will be a short one.

2003 result: Ewing (SNP) 11,384 (42.19%); Wood (Con) 6,072 (22.50%); Peacock (Lab) 5,157 (19.11%); Gorn (LD) 3,283 (12.17%); Anderson (SSP) 1,085 (4.02%)

Moray By-Election

Today's newspapers are reporting that two sitting MSPs are to resign in order to fight the Moray By-Election. Richard Lochhead (SNP, NE Scotland) and Mary Scanlon (Con, Highlands and Islands) had been selected as their party's candidate for the Election in 2007, and will be bringing forward their battle to succeed the late Margaret Ewing by 12 months. Needless to say, only one of them (at most) can return to Holyrood as MSP for Moray. The other will be out of a job for at least 12 months.

Mary Scanlon will be replaced by David Petrie, who was third on the Tories' Regional List in 2003, and stood as their candidate in Argyll & Bute that year. If he wants re-election in 2007, he'll have to find another constituency, as Jamie McGrigor has been selected as the candidate for Argyll & Bute this time around.

Richard Lochhead should be replaced by Alasdair Allan, who was fourth on the SNP's North East Regional List in 2003 (Second and third place went to Brian Adam and Shona Robison, who won Constituencies). However, he's seeking to be the Party's candidate in the Western Isles in 2007, and may decide not to take up his seat should he be selected for this. If he isn't, however, he has a problem: the Number 1 spot on the NE Scotland list is almost certain to go to Alex Salmond, who will be the SNP candidate in Gordon, where Allan was the candidate in 2003. But if he does win the selection for the Western Isles, and passes up his chance at a seat now, then Maureen Watt, who was sixth on the List (Fifth place went to Andrew Welsh, who won Angus), will take Richard Lochhead's seat.