Hell hath no fury like Anne Moffat scorned

Anne Moffat has lobbed a hand grenade into proceedings: in an interview with the Sunday Herald, she complains about East Lothian MSP (and Leader of the Labour Group in the Scottish Parliament) Iain Gray, alleging that he's chosen to make friends with 'bullies'. She's particularly scathing about his presence at a meeting which called for her to face an open vote of party members for re-selection:

I left on the basis that it was the right thing to do. I heard afterwards that he had stayed it would be nice, you know, for everybody to rally round, and things like that, but it's not always possible in politics. And he's made friends with some of the people that are not particularly friendly towards me.

Not good. Indeed, the whole situation is a shambles: the Labour NEC has suspended the local party for acting unconstitionally (on the open vote, it would seem). On her initial trigger ballot, which she won with Union help, then Scottish Labour General Secretary Lesley Quinn uncovered 'irregularites', but the NEC were content for the re-selection to stand - suggesting that rule enforcement on the NEC is both selective and subjective, and further confirming my hunch that despite Moffat's obvious lack of friends in East Lothian, she has a few that count at Labour HQ. Further, last year, the local party sent a complaint to the Standards Commissioner, alleging that she had misused her Parliamentary expenses, while she's now attacking her local colleagues as 'bullies'.

This can't end well. Firstly, it puts the local MP and MSP on a collision course: how can they work together under these circumstances (The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the part of Moffat's seat that isn't represented by Gray at Holyrood is represented by the SNP's Kenny MacAskill)? But more importantly, Moffat has fallen out with the key ranking figures of her local party - the people whose help she needs at election time! The split that is now very, very visible will fundamentally damage the local party's credibility, perhaps to the point where someone else is elected. Which will really hit Iain Gray where it hurts.

Secondly, it puts Iain Gray on a collision course with the Moffat-friendly NEC. Now, I'm all for differences emerging between Scottish Labour and the UK hierarchy on policy matters (indeed, that doesn't happen nearly enough) but this row has the potential to consume Gray - and he absolutely does not want to be on the losing side. He has, to an extent, been sidelined as the voice of Labour in Scotland by Jim Murphy, and siding with people who the Labour NEC has sided against will damage his credibility with London. So if he goes through a lean patch at Holyrood, that means he has no support to fall back on, as Wendy Alexander did until her infamous "Bring it on" moment.

Not that Anne Moffat gives a shit about this. Firstly, he's sided with her enemies, so he'll be fair game for her now. And in any case, she's not the most devolution-friendly of MPs, oh no. Yo wouldn't expect a woman who responded to the formation of the SNP Government with the line, "proportional representation gave Germany Adolf Hitler and in Scotland to a lesser degree we've had the member for Banff and Buchan". And she was one of the first people to propose the transfer of powers back to Westminster over planning.

You'd have thought she'd have toned things down, or even glossed over matters where Iain Gray was concerned: whatever she thinks of Holyrood, he is her Party's Leader in that Chamber. Instead she's gone for him.

He'll recover: he's clearly got the right friends at the local level and Moffat is proving herself to be a loose cannon, so he can move on. But she may re-visit this, and she appears to have the NEC on her side.

But what she doesn't realise is that the people who actually got her to Parliament (as opposed to the people who got her the selection) clearly have no confidence in her and the relationship that she has with them has been irrevocably soured. If she's not got the trust of those people, how can she represent East Lothian effectively?

For the sake of her Party and constituency, she should go. But she won't. Not without a fight.

A fight which everyone in East Lothian Labour will lose.

The Gray Team

Iain Gray's Shadow Ministerial team is now official - even if it had been overshadowed by the appointment of Ann McKechin as the new Minister of State at the Scotland Office. Of course, it remains to be seen how long the Scotland Office remains in place and what will happen to her then, but those are questions for another day. For now, good luck to her - she will need it.

Anyway. The Shadow Cabinet.

Finance & Sustainable Growth

Andy Kerr is the Shadow Cabinet Secretary here, and this is a promotion for him and a relatively wise move on Gray's part. Kerr was the Finance Minister from 2001 to 2004, so will know the brief, and was a safe enough pair of hands that he was moved to Health to clean up the mess that Malcolm Chisholm was getting into. He got dragged in further, but that's by the by. This is a far more meaningful portfolio than the one he had and he will probably be a far abler holder of the post than his predecessor, one Mr. I. Gray. David Whitton will be his Deputy, though as the rest of the Finance brief (Enterprise, Energy, Tourism, Transport and so forth) appears to have been hived off into other shadow departments, I'm not sure how he'll be deputising. This is a big step up for Whitton: he was Wendy Alexander's PPS, but it's the wrong move by Gray, as Whitton's last finance-related role was as Wendy Alexander's campaign treasurer.

Education & Lifelong Learning

Rhona Brankin stays here. Ken McIntosh remains as Shadow Schools Minister. Claire Baker's portfolio is re-named Shadow Further & Higher Education Minister. Karen Whitefield, currently Convener of the Education Committee, is appointed Shadow Minister for Children and Early Years, so a step up for her (Or is it? She may have wielded more influence as a Convener...) and broadly the status quo for everyone else.

Health & Wellbeing

Cathy Jamieson takes this one on, replacing Margaret Curran - it's a more prominent role than the Deputy Leader without Portolio role she had before and, let's face it, the state of the NHS and the nation's health in general is always in the news. And given that she advocated a leftward tack in the Leadership campaign, could this herald a shift in policy for Labour on health? Or, given that she was the Justice Minister who privatised the transport of prisoners, perhaps Labour will still be defending PFI. Nevertheless, she is very much in a position that matters. Richard Simpson retains his title of Shadow Public Health Minister. Mary Mulligan moves to Housing & Communities (as a former Deputy Communities Minister, that's a sound move) replacing the vacancy created by Johann Lamont's elevation to the Deputy Leadership, while Frank McAveety remains Shadow Minister for Sport.

Justice

Richard Baker?! A big promotion for him from Chief Whip to Shadow Justice Secretary though I get the feeling that Kenny MacAskill (and indeed, Bill Aitken) could handle him with a very minimum of effort. Short of his NUS experience (and anyone who had to deal with me at University will understand why my contempt for him is automatic) and the donation to Iain Gray's campaign, I'm not sure what qualifies him for the brief. He may surprise me, but I doubt it. He'll be laughing his socks off, while Gray may rue this decision. Paul Martin stays at Community Safety.

Rural Affairs & Environment

Sarah Boyack remains in place; Elaine Murray moves to Shadow Environment Minister: given that her constituency contains Chapelcross Nuclear Power Station, and she has (understandably) spoken out in favour of nuclear power in the past, this appointment reaches new heights of absurdity. Appointing a pro-nuclear MSP to the Environment brief is a little like appointing Nick Griffin to the Equality & Human Rights Commission. Besides that, Karen Gillon stays put at Rural Development.

Europe, External Affairs & Culture

This is given Shadow Cabinet level by Iain Gray despite being only a Ministerial post within the Department of the First Minister in the Government, and it goes to Pauline McNeill. This is an utter humiliation for McNeill, who has gone in the space of a few days from speaking on what will be a key theme in this Parliamentary year (judging by the Legislative Programme anyway) to shadowing Linda Fabiani, whose portfolio generates very little publicity. Oh dear.

Economy & Skills

This is that extra, random portfolio that Opposition politicians seem to love and I can't totally fathom. Particularly as in this case, the brief is covered by other portfolios that would belong in the Finance section or look like they'd be covered by Claire Baker. It resembles the old Enterprise and Lifelong Learning post, though the Enterprise part is overed by Junior Spokespeople and most of the Skills bit seems to be staying in Education (and when does the acquisition of skills at any level stop being education, anyway?), so I'm not quite sure what this is all about. My confusion is compunded by the fact that the title is described as "Shadow Minister" despite being having sub-portfolios and being at the Shadow Cabinet level, suggesting that "Shadow Cabinet Secretary" would be more appropriate. I don't really see what Iain Gray is trying to achieve, short of trying to make the two words appear as key priorities for him and his Party, something which should be done through policies and not job titles. Anyway, this odd mish-mash of a post goes to John Park, confirming a meteoric rise for him and, perhaps, big things ahead. Des McNulty will be Shadow Minister for Transport, Infrastructure and Climate Change (a wider portfolio there, but one that maps perfectly onto Stewart Stevenson's ministerial position, so some wisdom shown by Gray), while Lewis Macdonald takes the Shadow Enterprise, Energy and Tourism Minister position, again mapping perfectly onto Jim Mather's post, and a wider portfolio for him.

Policy Development

Margaret Curran has been made Shadow Cabinet Secretary without Portfolio with special responsibility for Policy Development. The conventional wisdom appears to be that Curran will be responsible for the 2011 manifesto, and will therefore wield massive influence within the Party. I believe that she's basically being locked in a back room for two years, and that Iain Gray (or, indeed, Labour figures at the UK level) will feel entirely free to overrule her. This post is not what it seems, especially given the reason for the appointment: Curran learning the hard way the lessons from Glasgow East. How does losing a By-Election help you to write a manifesto? To hear Gray, Curran was suitably chastened by the Glasgow East result and having listened to the people, will be capable fo drafting policies to address their concerns. But seeing as she should have been doing that anyway as MSP for Glaasgow Baillieston and a former Cabinet Minister, I don't see how that can be the case. Therefore, she was, in my view, a part - though by no means the whole - of Labour's problem in the seat, and I am not convinced that she can offer the solution. Hell, I can answer Labour's policy problem right now: have some policies. Other than the policy of not liking Alex Salmond. I could be totally wrong: Curran could be the powerhouse of Scottish Labour, and this could be Gray's most inspired move ever. But I have massive doubts about that and believe that this is more to do with neutralising her in the same way that David Cameron managed to lock Oliver Letwin in a cupboard somewhere. We'll find out who was right two years from now.

The Best of the Rest

New Deputy Leader Johann Lamont takes Jackie Baillie's Chief of Staff role (what does that mean, anyway?), and will also speak up on Equality matters. Michael McMahon remains Shadow Parliamentary Business Minister while David Stewart is promoted to Chief Whip - Labour's third in a year. Rhoda Grant will enter the Whips' Office, joining James Kelly, who is already there. Meanwhile, Tom McCabe will remain on the Corporate Body.

Barmiest Appointment

Definitely Elaine Murray's move to Environment.

Canniest Appointment

Bringing Andy Kerr back to the Finance portfolio.

One to Watch

John Park. Labour's Leader in 2012?

The Winners

Andy Kerr, certainly. Cathy Jamieson to a degree. Richard Baker has just been over-promoted if you ask me. John Park is a clear winner, as is David Whitton. Other than that, there is little in the way of new blood.

The Losers

In terms of those staying in a job, Pauline McNeill is the biggest loser, though I suspect that Margaret Curran is second, but time will tell. And the most obvious losers of all are Jackie Baillie and Malcolm Chisholm, who leave with nothing.

Leadership Saturday: It remains to be seen just how easy it is being Gray

Iain Gray is now the Leader of the Scottish Opposition, with Cathy Jamieson coming second and Andy Kerr third. The full breakdown of results hasn't yet been published and it will be interesting to see how the individual blocs in the Electoral College voted.

This is a mistake. At a time when the Labour Government at Westminster is disintegrating more dramatically than anything Labour at Holyrood has ever been able to muster, the last thing Labour at Holyrood needed was to hitch themselves to the Westminster wagons, which are in the process of plunging into a rather deep canyon. And Gray is the closest of the candidates to Downing Street, make no mistake - even if he tried to avoid any form of public support from the likes of Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling... a sort of endorsement that dare not speak its name. The man has had a charisma bypass, is a rubbish communicator if that interview on Newsnight Scotland is anything to go by, and displayed tactical insanity in his decision to abstain on the Budget as Shadow Finance Secretary. And he's a mark of continuity within the party: from Alexander to Gray, the same approach and so with that the inability to reform the party where it counts. I can only imagine that champagne is being supped in Bute House right now.

Of course, the choice wasn't great - this is borne out by the fact that no candidate managed to win outright on the first vote. Cathy Jamieson had re-re-positioned herself on the party's Left, annoying the 'reformist' wing but still not winning back the trust of the left-wingers she deserted as a Minister. Nevertheless, that ticket would have probably given the activists a boost and might have won a few disaffected voters back. Andy Kerr triggered a turf war between MPs and MSPs, and would have undoubtedly caused a full-on civil war within Scottish Labour, but once the fog had cleared, the dust had settled, Labour had lost a General Election and Brown had found himself out on his ear, Kerr would have been the last man standing, able to implement his agenda and make changes to the Party which might have made them a more effective unit, being able to write their own manifesto without clearing it with the UK party first, for the 2011 Election.

But Gray, despite seeking to "close the 2007 manifesto" does not appear to offer substantive changes from the status quo, and will continue the Labour line of defaulting to blaming the SNP automatically for any rows or threats emanating from Whitehall rather than trying to produce something more concilliatory. No, Gray is Labour's man in Scotland, not Scotland's man in Labour. And the new Leader of the Opposition is not helped by a YouGov poll which found that just 3% of respondents saw him as the best potential First Minister. Even if all those who named a Labour candidate were to rally round him, he would have a personal support level of just 12%.

Meanwhile, Johann Lamont is now Deputy Leader. As an outsider to the Labour process, I'm afraid I must confess that I do not know anything about what she offered, other than spite towards the SNP. Clearly she is going to be the 'attack dog' (as Vice-Presidential candidates are meant to be) of the ticket but Labour's relentless negativity cost them first place in the Scottish Parliament, in local Councils, in Crewe & Nantwich and Glasgow East. Labour needs to muzzle its attack dogs, not elevate them to the Deputy Leadership; it needs to produce new, positive polices, not the same old mince that has seen its popularity rightly plunge.

But I do not believe that Labour's new ticket is aware of that.