Wednesday, February 22, 2023


Another attack on democracy in New Zealand

Under their recently retired PM Ardern, significant power in the country was transferred to the Maori minority. The Parliament became no longer supreme. NZ journalist Marc Daalder has mounted another attack on NZ democracy. See below.

Daalder is a global warming true believer. And he doesn't let the facts get in his way. For a start his assertion that "Human civilisation has never before seen a world as hot as Earth is today " is quite false. It ignores the Medieval warm period and the Roman warm period. Is he saying that the ancient Romans were not civilized? Is he denying that it was hotter then? Elephants cannot now traverse the Alps the way they did under Hannibal.

And note in his third paragraph how he slides from saying (correctly) that there is a lot of CO2 in the atmophere today to linking that to New Zealand's recent weather disasters. Even the IPCC says you cannot infer climate from weather.

But he really nails his colours to the mast when he says that "It is incontrovertible that human burning of fossil fuels is the primary driver of climate change". Incontrovertible? A lot of people have controverted it. He is just a foolish young man. He is not worth a Dutch dollar


National Party MP Maureen Pugh echoed an old adage of climate deniers on Tuesday when asked about her belief in human-caused global warming. The climate, she said, has always changed, but she was still awaiting evidence that humans are causing changes this time around.

This is a classic example of paltering - the use of selective truthful statements to create a misleading overall impression. Scientists are aware the climate has changed in the past, and it is the reality of these past changes that make our current situation so concerning.

The last time there was this much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, New Zealand had crocodiles, Central Otago was hotter and more tropical than Queensland is today and conifers lined the coast of Antarctica. Human civilisation has never before seen a world as hot as Earth is today - let alone the 2.6C of warming we are on track for.

Clearly, past climates are not reassuring. But the human impact here is clear as well. Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is increasing at the fastest observed rate in 66 million years of records.

It is incontrovertible that human burning of fossil fuels is the primary driver of climate change and global temperature increase. That's the conclusion of 234 experts from 64 countries who wrote the latest review of scientific evidence for climate change for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They reviewed 14,000 scientific papers, responded to 80,000 comments from peer reviewers and produced a 2400-page report, as well as a summary for policymakers approved line-by-line by 195 countries.

The first line of that summary?

"It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred."

If that isn't enough, consider that the Royal Society of New Zealand first backed the scientific consensus on climate way back in 2001, back when Pugh had been a local councillor for just three years and before her nine-year mayoral term or seven years as an MP. It was joined by 33 other national science academies from around the world.

There's also the World Meteorological Organisation, the World Health Organisation, the United Nations, the American Geophysical Union, the European Federation of Geologists, the American Meteorological Society, the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, the Royal Meteorological Society, the American Medical Association and dozens of other expert groups.

When Pugh said she was awaiting evidence from Climate Change Minister James Shaw on the human influence on the climate, why were the views and research of tens of thousands of practising scientists worldwide not enough for her?

Now, of course, Pugh says it was all a misunderstanding. "Human-induced climate change is real," she now says. She had been "unclear", she says.

Pugh wasn't unclear, she was crystal clear on Tuesday morning. She was asked point blank whether she believed in human-caused climate change. She didn't say "yes", she said she was waiting for Shaw's response with the evidence.

It is not credible that Pugh accepted the scientific consensus on climate change when she gave these answers, which inherently contradict her later claim that she had seen all the evidence she needed.

"I'm not waiting on the evidence," she told reporters on Tuesday afternoon, three hours after she told the same reporters, "I am waiting on the evidence".

It's not credible either for her to have missed or ignored two decades of scientific research on climate change, only to have reviewed the science over lunch on Tuesday and come around on the whole climate change thing.

Neither what Pugh wants the public to believe nor any alternative generous interpretations of her swift about-face are feasible.

Even putting aside this dishonesty, the situation raises greater questions about the quality of our representatives.

Pugh is of course an example of the historically poor quality of National's candidate vetting.

When she first arrived at Parliament, she said she didn't believe in pharmaceuticals. In 2021, she was one of the last of the party's caucus to get vaccinated, saying she had not yet booked a doctor's appointment. During the Parliament occupation, she briefly wrote in support of the protesters before deleting the social media post.

The climate issue is perhaps the most significant question mark over her record, however.

In 2023, as climate-intensified storms and cyclones have already killed 15 people, rendered thousands homeless and caused billions of dollars in damage, not accepting the scientific basis for anthropogenic (human-caused) warming is unacceptable in a legislator.

It speaks to both a callous disregard for the mounting toll of victims of climate change and an irrationality we wouldn't allow on other issues. Would anyone trust an MP who was a flat earther to make the best decisions for their constituents and their country?

Legislators make decisions on policy that have concrete effects on people's lives and the country's climate response. It's clearly untenable for people who deny the fact of climate change to be making those calls.

The rapid backlash to Pugh's statements and her unconvincing retraction show that the public and most sitting MPs also see climate denial as an automatic disqualifier for holding office.

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Manchin digs in against ESG, puts GOP a vote away from rejecting Biden’s woke rules for investments

Sen. Joe Manchin III is escalating his attacks on corporations and financial firms that embrace environmental, social and governance investing as the ESG movement also suffers setbacks in corporate boardrooms.

Once mum on the hot-button issue, the West Virginia Democrat has increasingly targeted the investment strategy that makes fighting climate change a priority.

Mr. Manchin insisted to The Washington Times in a recent interview that his warning that ESG hurts energy security when geopolitical risks go ignored was “not criticizing ESG” or the responsibility to address climate change. But he has begun to sound more like his Republican colleagues who dub ESG “woke capitalism.”

“Colleges, universities, you have different investment firms — they’re looking only at ESG and not geopolitical risks. They’re not being reasonable [or] practical,” Mr. Manchin said. “If you hang your hat on one thing, without the geopolitical risks — just ask Europe what they’ve gone through.”

Mr. Manchin, who is chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, has joined a Republican-led effort to tank President Biden’s climate-friendly 401(k) rules that allow retirement fund managers to consider ESG, as first reported by The Times last month, a move that could force Mr. Biden to issue his first veto.

“At a time when our country is already facing economic uncertainty, record inflation and increasing energy costs, it is irresponsible of the Biden administration to jeopardize retirement savings for more than 150 million Americans for purely political purposes,” Mr. Manchin said earlier this month.

His anti-ESG rhetoric comes amid diversity, equity and inclusion workers — components of ESG — being put on the chopping block in recent layoffs across corporate America. Between December 2021 and December 2022, the attrition rate for these DEI workers was 33% compared to 21% for non-DEI workers, according to workforce analytics company Revelio Labs.

Mr. Manchin remains an outlier for Democratic leaders who overwhelmingly back ESG. Republicans in state capitals and on Capitol Hill, meanwhile, are working to combat the woke takeover of pension funds and corporate culture.

When lawmakers return next week from the Presidents Day recess, Mr. Manchin and all 49 Senate Republicans plan to force a vote on a Congressional Review Act resolution to dismantle new Labor Department rules allowing financial managers to use ESG for investing clients’ retirement money.

The vote will only require a simple majority to pass, meaning one more Democrat is needed to pass it. The Republican-controlled House already has the votes.

Potential defectors in the Senate, such as Democrat Jon Tester of Montana and independents Angus King of Maine and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, both of whom caucus with Democrats, are holding their cards close to the vest. The trio is up for reelection next year and each is crucial for Senate Democrats to retain the majority.

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Wall Street Clashes With Green Bankers Fed Up With Oil Agenda

Inside the world’s biggest climate-finance alliance, a number of green banks are reviewing their membership in objection to perceived concessions to Wall Street.

The Net-Zero Banking Alliance, which is a sub-unit of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, faces a potentially embarrassing mutiny from some of the world’s most climate-conscious lenders after it decided against imposing binding restrictions on fossil-fuel financing. One lender, Germany’s GLS Bank, has already walked out in protest. Now, others say they may follow.

Compromises made by NZBA to keep Wall Street firms on board are “disappointing and discouraging,” said Jeroen Rijpkema, chief executive officer of Triodos Bank, a green lender from the Netherlands. Gareth Griffiths, CEO of the UK’s Ecology Building Society, described as “frustrating” the fact that major NZBA members continue to finance new fossil-fuel exploration, which is “incompatible with net zero.”

Both Triodos and Ecology said they will review their membership in the alliance and may walk away if the group doesn’t tighten its rules around the funding of fossil fuels.

The compromises in question relate to a decision late last year by the net-zero alliance to loosen ties with Race to Zero, a United Nations-backed group behind proposed restrictions that would have forced members to phase out their financing of oil, gas and coal. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. threatened to leave NZBA if such limits were imposed, people familiar with the process said at the time. Part of their concern hinged on the legal liability that binding terms represented, the people said.

The upshot is that banks can continue to call themselves alliance members without being subject to externally imposed limits on their fossil-fuel financing. As a result, “a significant proportion of NZBA members continue to lack an appropriate approach to their own climate and environmental impact,” a spokesperson for GLS said earlier this month.

GFANZ expanded its membership to 550 financial firms last year with about $150 trillion in combined assets. Together, Triodos, Ecology and GLS account for just a tiny fraction of that. Yet the lenders represent some of the highest green standards in finance, and their departure would mark a reputational setback for GFANZ and NZBA.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and others find themselves at the receiving end of climate activism intended to expose their perceived lack of credible net-zero plans. As You Sow, a climate nonprofit, just filed shareholder resolutions asking the three Wall Street firms, along with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co., to disclose climate transition plans in order to “assure investors and the public they have a path forward” to meet their stated net-zero goals.

A spokesperson for NZBA said the alliance doesn’t comment on individual banks.

As an umbrella group for all net-zero finance alliances, GFANZ faces an increasingly tough balancing act. Late last year, Vanguard Group Inc. walked out of the asset manager coalition after scoring the lowest results in addressing its financed emissions. Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley told the Financial Times in a report published Tuesday that he felt "our voice was being drowned out or confused.” Vanguard said in December that it plans to keep investors informed of its ongoing climate work.

Remco Fischer, climate lead at the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative, which convenes NZBA, said members, which include global systemically important banks, are expected to set decarbonization targets that “reflect decreasing use” of unabated fossil fuels in accordance with emissions-reductions pathways aligned with keeping the increases in global temperatures to below 1.5C.

Ben Caldecott, director of the Oxford Sustainable Finance Group at the University of Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, said given the alliance’s size, “it was always going to be hard” to be the high ambition coalition. “It has real leaders and it has some laggards, and that reflects what it is trying to achieve: improving practice across a variegated industry,” he said.

“I understand the frustrations of members who want to pick up the pace – we are facing a climate emergency after all – but I’d caution against giving up on the coalition too soon," said James Vaccaro, who leads the Climate Safe Lending Network. “The most progressive institutions should stretch the ambition of those less advanced, but if they want to optimize their positive influence they should be leading from the inside."

Rijpkema at Triodos Bank said some laggards appear to have too much leeway. The fact that “some financial institutions that have signed the commitment still finance fossil-fuel expansion and exploration” is “not in line with the commitment financial institutions have made and does not bring the 1.5C scenario any closer,” he said.

The Dutch bank, which has committed to reaching net zero by 2035, 15 years earlier than the NZBA requires, joined the banking alliance as a founding member. Triodos said being an NZBA member should “at a minimum” require banks to follow the criteria that had been proposed by Race to Zero.

NZBA is due to revise its target setting guidelines by April 2024 at the latest as part of a periodic review of its criteria. In an unrelated move, Norwegian green energy investor Aker Horizons has left GFANZ’s asset management sub-group. While Aker continues to support the goals of the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative, the firm’s model of taking large ownership stakes means the alliance “is not well adapted to the reality and needs of our company,” said a company spokesman.

“It is frustrating that it appears that some of the requirements of the UN’s Race to Zero climate action campaign have been dropped by NZBA,” said Griffiths of Ecology Building Society. “Also frustrating, is that a number of NZBA members are still providing finance for new fossil-fuel explorations. If we don’t see NZBA being an enabler in creating a fair society in a sustainable world, then we will need to reconsider our membership.”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/wall-street-clashes-with-green-bankers-fed-up-with-oil-agenda-1.1886100?mc_cid=6d365c3d56&mc_eid=cc88839e92 .

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Australia's Leftist government gives Santos gas expansion project green light

The Greens say Labor’s environmental credentials are “in tatters” after Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek gave the green light for a new gas expansion project in Queensland, amid deteriorating negotiations over Labor’s key climate policy.

The criticism comes after The Australian revealed Ms Plibersek approved an application from energy giant Santos to construct and operate an expansion of 116 gas wells at an existing facility in the Surat Basin out until 2077.

The project’s approval has threatened to derail Labor’s negotiations with the Greens as it seeks to win support for its key climate change policy, with Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen locked in negotiations with the minor party in a bid to get Labor’s safeguard mechanism through the upper house.

Anthony Albanese on Tuesday slapped down threats from the Greens to block the carbon credits scheme without a blanket ban on fossil fuel projects, saying they would “not be entertained” by the government.

The Prime Minister said the Greens were trying to “exert their influence” in negotiations after the Coalition formally opposed their climate policy.

But Greens deputy leader Mehreen Faruqi said Labor’s climate credibility was “in tatters” after the new gas approval and called on Ms Plibersek to explain her decision to approve “new gas fracking until 2077”.

“Labor has just approved 116 new gas wells and its climate credibility is in tatters,” Senator Faruqi said. “Gas is as dirty as coal. We’re in the middle of a climate crisis and Tanya Plibersek needs to explain why Labor is approving new gas fracking until 2077.”

Labor’s safeguard mechanism – in which Australia’s 215 biggest-polluting facilities would slash emissions by almost 5 per cent each year out to 2030 – is essential to the government’s target to cut emissions by 43 per cent by the end of the decade.

With the Coalition opposing the safeguard mechanism, the federal government needs the votes of the Greens’ 11 senators and two crossbenchers to get its carbon credits regime through the Senate.

A spokeswoman for Ms Plibersek said the gas expansion was assessed on its merit and was subject to strict environmental approvals.

The spokeswoman said the federal government was putting Australia “on a clear path to net zero” through its $15bn National Reconstruction Fund, safeguard mechanism and support for electric cars.

The Australian understands the expansion is a small addition to an existing project which has been operational for more than eight years. “This proposal, as with all proposals, was assessed on its merits. It was subject to robust scientific assessments, and strict environmental approval conditions have been applied,” the spokeswoman said.

It comes after a new report from the Australian Energy Market Operator highlighted an “urgent” need to invest in back-up capacity – including batteries, long-life storage and more generation – to avoid the risk of blackouts later this decade.

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Tuesday, February 21, 2023



WWII-style rationing of petrol and energy 'could fight climate change'

Another Greenie attempt to send society backwards. They really hate us

Climate change could be tackled with the help of a World War II-style rationing of petrol, meat and the energy people use in their homes, UK scientists say.

They claim that this would help countries to slash their greenhouse gas emissions 'rapidly and fairly'.

Researchers from the University of Leeds also said that governments could restrict the number of long-haul flights people make in a year or 'limit the amount of petrol one can buy in a month'.

They said that previous schemes put forward as a way to fight global warming – such as carbon taxes or carbon trading schemes – would not work because they favoured the wealthy, who would effectively be able to buy the right to pollute.

The experts also made a comparison with the need to limit certain goods as they grew scarce in the 1940s, adding that trying to achieve this by raising taxes was rejected at the time because 'the impact of tax rises would be slow and inequitable'.

But rationing in Britain during the war was widely accepted, the authors wrote in their paper. 'As long as there was scarcity, rationing was accepted, even welcomed or demanded,' they said.

How would the scheme work?

The researchers say there are two options for a rationing policy:

It wasn't until nine years after the war ended that rationing finished in the UK.

In much the same way as during World War Two, the researchers argue that carbon rationing would allow people to receive an equal portion of resources based on their needs, therefore sharing out the effort to protect the planet.

Lead author Dr Nathan Wood, who is now a postdoctoral fellow at Utrecht University's Fair Energy Consortium, said: 'The concept of rationing could help, not only in the mitigation of climate change, but also in reference to a variety of other social and political issues – such as the current energy crisis.'

The researchers add: 'Rationing is often seen as unattractive, and therefore not a viable option for policy-makers. 'It is important to highlight the fact that this was not the case for many of those who had experienced rationing.

'It is important to emphasise the difference between rationing itself and the scarcity that rationing was a response to.

'Of course, people did welcome the end of rationing, but they were really celebrating the end of scarcity, and celebrating the fact that rationing was no longer necessary.'

The problem with rationing energy, meat and petrol, the researchers point out, is that people might not be as willing to accept it as they would if resources were scarce, because they know there is an 'abundance of resources available'.

To tackle this, the researchers said, governments could regulate the biggest polluters, such as oil, gas and petrol, long-haul flights and intensive farming, which would therefore create a scarcity in products that harm the planet.

They added that rationing could then be introduced gradually to manage the resulting scarcity.

Fellow lead author Dr Rob Lawlor, of the University of Leeds, said: 'There is a limit to how much we can emit if we are to reduce the catastrophic impacts of climate change. In this sense, the scarcity is very real.

'It seems feasible to reduce emissions overall even while the lowest emitters, often the worst off, may be able to increase their emissions – not despite rationing, but because of rationing and price controls.'

Dr Wood added: 'The cost of living crisis has shown what happens when scarcity drives up prices, with energy prices rising steeply and leaving vulnerable groups unable to pay their bills.

'Currently, those living in energy poverty cannot use anywhere near their fair share of energy supply, whereas the richest in society are free to use as much energy as they can afford.'

The experts said one way to roll out the rationing scheme would be to use 'carbon cards', which would work like bank cards to keep track of a person's carbon allowance, rather than using ration cards.

Dr Lawlor said: 'Many have proposed carbon allowances and carbon cards before.

'What is new (or old, taking inspiration from World War II) is the idea that the allowances should not be tradable.

'Another feature of World War II-style rationing is that price controls on rationed goods would prevent prices from rising with increased demand, benefitting those with the least money.'

The experts believe that rationing would also encourage people to move to more sustainable lifestyles, rather than relying on fossil fuels.

'For example, rationing petrol could encourage greater use of, and investment in, low carbon public transport, such as railways and local trams,' Dr Wood said.

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Hey, Axios, Try Looking at Real Data, not Models; It Shows Ice Sheet Melting is not Dangerous

A recent article in Axios claims that the current rate of global ice sheet melting and sea level rise will rapidly accelerate unless global warming is stopped before it reaches 1.5°C. Axios also claims that even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, sea levels will rise for centuries because of the “delayed response” of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Axios’ claims are misleading at best. Warming, sea level rise, and ice melt is likely to continue regardless of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, as it has been going on for far longer than human emissions have been a factor. There is no evidence that any out-of-control “tipping point” exists or is being approached, nor any evidence rates of sea level rise are increasing. Ice mass naturally grows and shrinks in the north and south poles.

The article, “Drastic emissions cuts needed to avert multi-century sea level rise, study finds,” discusses a new study that comes to some old, unoriginal conclusions. Mainly, that unless humans stop emitting greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide and methane rapidly in order to keep warming to 1.5°C or less (the earth has already warmed 1.2°C) rapid ice melt and rising seas will occur.

Writer Andrew Freedman cites a study published in Nature Communications, to support his story. Describing the study’s methodology, Freedman writes it “utilizes multiple simulations from what are known as “coupled” computer models in which the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, ice sheets and ice shelves are included and capable of influencing one another over time.”

As is typical, these alarming predictions are based not on observable data, but on computer model projections that have a bias towards human-caused warming. Climate Realism has discussed the problems with climate modelling dozens of times, including here, here, and here, for instance.

In reality, scientists’ understanding of how the atmosphere and clouds, oceans, and polar ice caps interact is limited in scope, with new connections and feedbacks being discovered with some regularity. Because of the immense complexity of the Earth’s climate, it is no wonder that modelers consistently fail to accurately predict future warming and downstream effects like sea level rise.

Regarding sea level rise, current and past trends are hardly alarming. Climate at a Glance: Sea Level Rise shows that global sea level has been rising since the end of the last ices age, far before humans began burning large quantities of fossil fuels, sometimes at rates far above the roughly 1.2 inches per decade measured over the past couple of centuries

Sea level has already risen more than 400 feet since the end of the last ice age. As explored in Climate Realism, here and here, for example, recent claims that rates of sea level rise have increased in the past few decades are due to an incorrect methodology in accounting for a shift from one set of satellites to a newer set. Tide gauge data does not support the claim that rates of sea level rise are accelerating.

Freedman claims that the research proves “even if global warming slows near or just after 2100, as would be the case in moderate to high emissions scenarios, ice sheet contributions to sea level rise would keep accelerating well beyond that.”

The researchers themselves are quoted as claiming that ice sheet melting will be “similar to a runaway train.”

However, ice melt data demonstrates no evidence such a “tipping point” exists that would lead to runaway melting.

Looking at Greenland, one of the “at risk” locations mentioned in the article, it’s clear that ice mass change fluctuates over time. While there has been a general decline in ice mass, the rate of loss has actually been declining in recent years, despite the modest warming and increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Ice loss in Greenland thus far has been insignificant compared to the ice mass of the entire Greenland ice sheet, the loss each year is around 0.005 percent of the entire mass.

Antarctica’s ice sheets, also mentioned by Freedman as being at risk of melting away, are seeing similarly unalarming melting trends. In fact, recent research concludes that Antarctica has seen a modest expansion of ice over the last several decades, as well as net-zero warming across the continent. Some sections, like the Antarctic Peninsula, are more prone to melting, while the eastern portion of the continent has seen a cooling trend and ice expansion.

The discovery of 800-year-old penguin remains that were revealed after some ice melted away in Antarctica gives good evidence that Antarctica experienced lower ice levels and warming that allowed penguins to inhabit the normally too-icy region during the Medieval Warm Period, which took place between 900 A.D. and 1200 A.D.

The researchers and Freedman claim that the ice sheets are merely “delayed” in responding to global warming. Yet when ice losses begin to mount, researchers claim it shows ice sheets respond to warming nearly immediately. It evidently never occurred to the researchers or Freedman that the climate models could be wrong, as they have consistently been concerning temperatures, and as a result, the response might not be as severe as they hypothesize. Without a return to ice age conditions, sea levels will inevitably rise over time, and ice will melt, regardless of anthropogenic causes. These cycles of warming and cooling are natural elements of earth history. Although humans are likely contributing to warming, available data does not point towards a looming catastrophe from rising seas. Axios probably would have been better served had they taken a more skeptical approach towards computer modelling, relying on publicly available (and easily accessible) sea level and ice melt data instead.

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House GOP Puts New Methane Tax, ‘Greenhouse Gas’ Fund on Chopping Block

House Republicans want to eliminate a tax on methane emissions and do away with a “greenhouse gas” reduction grant program as part of their “Unleash America’s Energy” campaign to roll back regulatory restraints on domestic production in the United States.

A proposed ‘Natural Gas Tax Repeal Act,’ sponsored by Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), would eliminate the Methane Emissions Reduction Program (MERP) and its methane waste fee.

A yet-unnumbered bill calls for repeal of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a $27 billion program administered through the Clean Air Act to support low- and zero-emission technologies to “reduce greenhouse gases and other air pollution in low-income and disadvantaged communities.”

Both MERP and the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund were established with the November 2021 adoption of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

The repeals are within a 17-bill “Unleash America’s Energy” package introduced by House Republicans since January. Other measures seek to expand domestic oil and natural gas exports, secure critical minerals supplies, and reform regulations in key environmental laws, such as the Clean Air Act and Toxic Substances Control Act.

The bills were vetted in Feb. 7–9 hearings in Washington, and in Feb. 13–16 Texas field hearings. They will occupy House Natural Resources and Energy & Commerce committees’ agendas when Congress returns to Washington on Feb. 27. Some could be on the House floor by late March.

Section 60113 of the IRA establishes MERP, which creates a fee on methane emissions paid by the oil and gas industry, starting at $900 per ton in 2024 and increasing to $1,500 per ton by 2026.

The IRA requires producers of emissions exceeding 25,000 tons of “CO2 equivalent” to collect data historically reported under the Clean Air Act to the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program as the basis for a new realm of taxation.

MERP’s fee “is an inappropriate and unworkable methane emissions tax” derived by dividing the calculated weight of methane by the sales volume of natural gas and heat content,” Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) President and CEO Jeff Eshelman said in Washington hearings.

Emissions are already regulated under the Clean Air Act, he said, calling MERP “a redundant effort” that will “impose financial and filing burdens on independent American oil and natural gas producers” and “add another complexity to these small businesses and divert their attention from what they do best, produce the cleanest and safest barrels of oil and natural gas in the world.”

A week later during a field hearing in Midland, Texas, IPAA Board Chair Steven Pruett raised similar issues with MERP, claiming “none of the tools the law uses to generate the tax were ever designed to be used for this purpose,” adding it appears the regulations were “drafted by environmental firms that know nothing about our business.”

Both expressed concern about MERP giving “a tax collection function” to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Eshelman said MERP will “trigger complex audit challenges and the potential for abusive use” of laws by federal agencies. “The methane tax would add the burden of moving EPA into tax collection, including audit processes which involve a degree of accuracy in measurement and tax assessment that goes well beyond the agency’s capacity,” he said.

“EPA never taxed anything before,” Pruett said in Texas a week later, calling giving “the EPA a license to tax our industry as they see fit … unnerving.”

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Climate Change ‘Irony’: Restricting American Oil and Gas Output Ultimately Harms Environment, Report Says

Attempts to restrict oil and natural gas production in the United States would result in negative impacts on the environment, according to a recent report, coming at a time when the Biden administration has taken several steps to curtail domestic fossil fuel activity.

Over the past years, there has arisen a “political movement centered in North America and Europe” which focuses on halting oil and gas production in these regions, according to The Environmental Quality Index report (pdf) published by the Institute for Energy Research (IER) this month. “The great irony is that this political movement—which purports to be about protecting the environment—results in oil and natural gas production moving from countries with the highest environmental standards to countries with lower, or even functionally zero, environmental standards,” the report notes.

“Reductions or limitations on domestic U.S. oil production must be made up elsewhere in the remaining major oil-producing countries, which have far lower environmental standards than the U.S.”

The report analyzed the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) produced by Yale University and found that the United States had an EPI score of 51.1. Meanwhile, the 20 largest oil-producing nations outside the United States had an average EPI score of 39. A lower score indicates poor performance concerning the impact to the environment.

“It means the average barrel of non-U.S. petroleum is produced in a country with an environmental score that is 23.6 percent lower than that of the U.S.”

The 20 largest non-U.S. natural gas producers had an average EPI of 38.6, which is 24.5 percent lower than the U.S. EPI, essentially meaning that environmental degradation increases when production is taken out of the country.

A similar situation is happening in the mining industry, where President Biden has imposed a multi-decade moratorium on thousands of acres of land within the country citing the need to protect the natural environment.

Besides the loss of revenue for U.S. businesses, national mineral self-sufficiency and loss of high-paying domestic jobs, this economical transfer has resulted in boosting mining projects in troubled regions such as Congo, where Chinese companies exploit workers, engage in slave labor, and disregard environmental factors.

High Global Output and Low Emissions

The United States is the world’s largest producer of both natural gas and oil. According to the report, only three nations outranked the country on environmental quality in terms of oil production. When it came to gas output, also only three nations scored above America.

However, among these nations, not one produces 25 percent of the gas and oil that the United States outputs.

“All oil production from countries scoring higher on environmental quality amounts to only 35.7 percent of U.S. production, and that from gas-producing countries is only 33.4 percent of U.S. production,” the report noted.

“The sheer size of U.S. production combined with its excellent environmental standards means that U.S. production disproportionately reduces the environmental harms of oil and gas production on a global scale.”

The report also notes that while the U.S. output of natural gas and oil has grown over the last four decades, pollution and emissions “have steadily declined across sources.”

“Contrary to popular media characterizations, wealth created by energy development in free economies enhances environmental performance while making people’s lives better,” the IER report stated.

Restricting American Production

Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Biden administration has tried to fill the gap of missing Russian production by seeking to import oil from authoritarian countries like Venezuela.

The IER report pointed out that “the environmental impact of Venezuelan oil has become continually more severe.” Earlier, Republican lawmakers had also criticized the Biden administration for the decision.

“President Biden is currently sitting on more than 4,400 pending applications for permits to drill. There is no reason to drill abroad when we have an abundance of clean, affordable, American-made energy,” Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Tex.) stated in a tweet on Nov. 30.

Biden is the only president since Richard Nixon to lease less than 4.4 million acres of land in the first 19 months of their first term. Under Biden, the Department of Interior leased only 126,228 acres during this period, and there is a moratorium on oil and gas leases.

Biden suspended oil production leases in the Arctic National Wildlife that former President Trump had opened up for production during his time.

The American Exploration and Production Council, a national trade association representing the largest independent oil and natural gas exploration and production companies in the United States, cited the Biden administration’s policies as weighing down on the industry in a blog post in May 2022.

“Unfortunately, this administration’s policies are restricting supply by hamstringing production on federal lands and waters, making it harder to build much-needed infrastructure, and discouraging industry capital with policies and rhetoric about the long-term value of American oil and gas.”

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Monday, February 20, 2023



Technology (Not More Mandates) to the Rescue

The “you didn’t build that” crowd hates to admit it, but the solutions to our energy and environmental problems won’t be created by the government. Solutions will be found by free people working in a free market. It will be researchers and entrepreneurs working in small labs.

One such entrepreneur/scientist is Sam Weaver. Dr. Sam has an impressive list of inventions. From the process to make carbon brakes used on most Boeing aircraft to the ceramic press that turns out the world’s thinnest aluminum cans for a brewery in Golden Colorado, you see Sam’s handiwork all around.

What he and his Proton Power team have been working on for the last number of years may just be the energy game-changer we need. In a lab just west of Knoxville, Dr. Weaver and his team began figuring out how to efficiently separate hydrogen from plant-based (biomass) material. They accomplished that and Wampler’s Farm Sausage plant nearby has been running on clean-burning hydrogen rich syngas for several years. In effect, they remove the carbon before burning the hydrogen.

That’s good, but their story gets better. Almost by accident, they discovered that the black powder carbon byproduct is rich in what they now call PPI Graphene. It has many of the same chemical properties of pure graphene. Graphene represents the holy grail of material scientists. It sells for as much as $2500 per gram. The Weaver team can upgrade this renewable and sustainable version from the carbon the biomass plants removed from the air for just fifty cents per gram.

Now it becomes truly disruptive!

Pure, layered graphene is both amazing and very expensive. Light as a feather while unbelievably strong. It has incredible electrical properties as well. The last few years the Weaver team has focused on producing batteries using their graphene. Imagine a battery that charges much faster, holds that charge longer, is impervious to cold and contains no lithium or rare earth materials. Oh, and it lasts longer; 800,000 cycles compared to 1,000 cycles in today’s batteries.

All of a sudden everything from electric cars to large scale storage of “green” power for the grid begin to actually make sense. This is being accomplished without mandates, the heavy hand or even much help from the government.

Imagine that.

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Europe’s Lesson in Green Hydrogen

Politicians love to say that green hydrogen is the carbon-neutral fuel of the future. If only it were true. A series of policy fights in Brussels is highlighting the perils of the new “hydrogen economy” even as political enthusiasm for it reaches a new peak.

It’s hard to overstate how much the green agenda relies on hydrogen’s alleged promise. It holds out the prospect of carbon-free transportation even if electric-vehicle battery technology never improves. Hydrogen also could be used in industrial processes that can’t easily be electrified to run directly on renewable power.

There’s one problem: physics. Hydrogen atoms don’t appear in isolation in nature so they must be produced, usually by splitting water molecules via electrolysis. A lot of energy is lost in this process, and hydrogen is only as green as the electricity used to electrolyze it.

Enter Brussels. The European Union has set an ambitious target of incorporating 20 million metric tons of clean hydrogen into the continent’s energy mix by 2030. Current consumption is about 6.5 million metric tons, most of that used in industry and produced from fossil fuels. Brussels wants 10 million of those 20 million metric tons to be produced in Europe. Now it wants to make sure hydrogen will be produced the green way.

The first step is a regulation proposed this week by the European Commission setting out what counts as “renewable hydrogen.” Brussels would require that by 2028 hydrogen is electrolyzed using power only from newly installed renewable sources such as windmills or solar panels. This would prevent countries from powering hydrogen electrolysis with existing renewable power and then adding new fossil-fuel generation to meet other demands.

This “additionality rule” brings into focus the extraordinary demands hydrogen will impose on electric grids. Producing one million metric tons of hydrogen would require 11 gigawatts of installed capacity for offshore wind, 22 gigawatts of onshore wind, or 52 gigawatts of solar, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The numbers are different to account for the intermittency of those sources. Installed capacity in Europe today is 17 gigawatts for offshore wind, 188 gigawatts for onshore wind and 196 gigawatts for solar.

Put another way, meeting the EU’s domestic clean-hydrogen production target in 2030 would require about 500 terawatt-hours of electricity. That’s roughly equivalent to Germany’s current annual power consumption. Since renewable power production across the EU currently measures 1,100 terawatt-hours, making so much hydrogen would require increasing renewables by 44%.

Nuclear is the obvious solution. Due to its ability to produce near-constant power, only seven gigawatts of installed nuclear capacity are required to produce one million metric tons of hydrogen. But Brussels, egged on by nuclear skeptics in Germany’s government and elsewhere, is dragging its heels.

The commission agreed to exempt countries from parts of the new additionality rule if total carbon emissions from electricity generation fall below a certain level—a sop to nuclear-intensive France. But a second regulation is expected determining which forms of hydrogen qualify for the most generous green subsidies. The risk is that nuclear-powered hydrogen will be excluded—guaranteeing subsidies go to unreliable renewables.

Politicians haven’t warned voters about this when touting hydrogen, implying instead that it’s a simple matter of exploiting atoms found in water to replace the gasoline in your car. The public is about to discover that hydrogen doubles down on all the costs of renewables—skyrocketing prices, unstable electric grids, and dependence on China for rare-earth metals. Hydrogen shows again that green climate promises always exceed what can be delivered.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-brussels-hydrogen-green-energy-renewables-electricity-dbec480a \

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Coal is making a comeback, and Australia is supplying a lot of it

Coal supplies a quarter of the world’s energy, oil and gas account for a half, and renewables – in spite of vast subsidies everywhere they are built – comprise just 7 per cent.

While Germany is being ridiculed for re-opening coal mines, even tearing down a wind farm to do so, it is claiming this is only a temporary departure from its decarbonisation transition.

Such assurances are not being given by the fastest-growing developing nations.

Indeed, Bloomberg reports, regretfully, that coal is making a comeback almost everywhere except in the US, which has stacks of gas, and Russia which, denied its European markets, has an unexpected gas surplus. India’s government, while having said it will phase down coal, is urging the owners of existing stations to keep them open. India, together with China, consumed 67 per cent of the world’s coal in 2022, up from 35 per cent in 2000. China itself claims to be moving toward a renewables future but their new coal generator build is proceeding apace. It hosts over half of the world’s coal plants and this is likely to increase since China accounts for over two-thirds of plants listed as planned or under construction.

Even some failing states are building new coal-generating facilities. These include Pakistan, in the face of steep gas price increases. And South Africa, a darling of the US/EU greenaid donors, is indefinitely shelving its planned transition from coal in the face of energy shortages.

Indicating a sound future for coal notwithstanding specious, ill-informed attacks on fossil fuels globally, 2022 saw 26,000 megawatts of old coal plants being retired offset by 45,000 megawatts of new plants commissioned, and 60,000 megawatts starting or resuming construction.

Australian coal energy generation is a little over 1 per cent of global capacity, a share that has been falling as new plants are opened overseas. As a result of increased State and Commonwealth government discrimination against domestic coal use, the latest such measures being price caps and forced redirection of exports to the domestic market.

Australia’s coal developments more generally have been under attack from government actions, Woke regulatory bodies like the Queensland and NSW Land Courts and, of course, green activists. Themselves ladened with green baggage, politicians have installed like-minded officials to reinforce their prejudices. This was evident in Senate hearings when Senator Antic expressed surprise that climate change was a priority for the Department of Home Affairs. Mike Pezzullo, the Departmental Secretary, responded, ‘I am not sure if you’ve noticed the increasing frequency and severity of weather events.’ Unfortunately, nabobs like Pezzullo have swallowed the climate con without troubling themselves to delve into the statistics, which show no increase in hot and cold spells, floods and droughts, or any other severe weather events.

In spite of politico-legal impediments, the quality of Australia’s coal reserves, their ease of mining, and the skills developed have catapulted Australia into becoming the world’s leading coal exporter.

This cannot be taken for granted and faces increased challenges from political intrusion.

Understandably, Tanya Plibersek excoriated the Greens for their decision to block additional carbon taxes on businesses via the so-called ‘safeguard’ mechanism unless the government goes the Full Monty and bans all new fossil fuel developments. The government would have assumed that its decision to ban Clive Palmer’s Rockhampton mine proposal would have earned sufficient greenie points to push through the additional imposts on domestic coal use. After all, she punished an opponent loathed equally by Labor and the Greens on the spurious grounds that the mine might harm the Great Barrier Reef, which is over 100 kilometres away. And, in any event, as Dr Peter Ridd from the Australian Environment Foundation has demonstrated the Reef, contrary to claims of rent-seeking scientists, is in pristine condition.

The heightened politically charged approval processes evident in the Palmer mine’s decision builds on countless other regulatory measures that have stunted the industry’s growth. The effects of previous interventions are already evident. Thus, even in nominal dollars, coal mining capital expenditure is below its level a decade ago and mining spending as a whole is down by a half. That spending is the backbone of future living standards. In the case of coal alone, political interventions inhibit the development of an industry that currently provides nearly a quarter of our exports.

https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/02/is-coal-making-a-comeback-australian-minings-uphill-battle/ ?

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The future of Australia's electricity supply is blowing in the wind

The events of the past few weeks have brought Australia’s energy future into sharp focus – we won’t have one. Green enthusiasts who dominate the public debate have insisted that much of the east coast’s reliable power supply must cease operating by about the middle of next decade, but there may not be anything to put in its place.

Those same activists insist that a vast network of renewable energy projects can take over the role of coal plants, ignoring considerable evidence that they cannot. However, state governments are relying on private investors to create this dense network, despite investment in the area having tanked.

Unless policymakers come to their senses, consumers who want to use electrical appliances, or even turn on the hall light in perhaps twelve years or so, may have to make their own arrangements. They might still be able to turn on gas stoves but not gas heaters (these still require power for fans), although policymakers are also doing their best to reduce gas supplies.

This heroic attempt at ruining Australia’s power supply is all the more remarkable for occurring during an international energy crisis and with the policymakers apparently oblivious to the notable failure of renewable energy to make much of a contribution to the overall energy supply, despite decades of investment.

As previously noted in The Spectator Australia (‘Engineering disaster’, 29 October 2022) a combination of billionaire activist Mike Cannon-Brookes and the state governments of Queensland and Victoria have organised the closure of the bulk of the reliable coal-fired power supply of the eastern half of the continent. At the same time the Victorian and Queensland state governments in particular, have been encouraging investment in renewable energy as well as pumped-hydro storage projects.

To date the response has been disappointing. Figures on renewable energy projects compiled by the Clean Energy Council show that just seventeen were completed and commissioned in 2022, representing 1,248 Megawatts (MW) of installed capacity, as opposed to forty-eight completed in Covid-stricken 2021 adding up to 4,589 MW, and 3,205 MW worth of projects in 2020. These figures are even less impressive when it is remembered that wind projects typically have an average output of about one-third of stated capacity. The average output for photovoltaics is somewhat less, but it is better for projects using the likes of solar concentrators.

There is no indication investment is improving. Wind farms under construction listed by the Victorian Department of Transport and Planning amount to just 864 MW in installed capacity – an effective average output of perhaps a paltry 300 MW or so.

One reason for investment in this area falling off a cliff, despite all the talk, is that markets did not do well generally in 2022. A count of initial public offerings on the securities exchange by professional services firm HLB Mann Judd shows that the number of new IPOs fell by 48 per cent in 2022, and total funds raised collapsed 91 per cent.

Another perspective is provided by lobby group WindEurope, which in January declared that orders for new wind turbines in Europe fell by 47 per cent, or nearly half, in 2022 compared with the previous year.

WindEurope complained about government interference in the European markets, but also noted that ‘inflation in commodity prices and other input costs has raised the price of wind turbines, by up to 40 per cent over the last two years’. Revenue had not kept pace with costs.

Despite the different conditions in Europe, the result was much the same as the investment market in general and renewable energy projects in Australia in particular, in that investment collapsed notably in the second half of 2022.

But then decades of talk about renewable energy and investment in all sorts of wild and wonderful projects has barely shifted the dial on renewable energy’s contribution. A control panel for the National Energy Market (the eastern Australian grid) compiled by the Australian Energy Market Operator shows that in the past 12 months just short of 70 per cent of electricity came from black and brown coal plants, and just short of 20 per cent from solar and wind. Another 7 per cent came from hydro (which counts as a renewable) and a few per cent from gas.

This does not seem very different from the energy mix of preceding years, but the really bad news for activists is the total energy mix figures for Australia compiled by the International Energy Agency. This analysis adds in the use of fuel in domestic and freight transport, gas for cooking and industrial use plus the power required for electrical generation. In 2021, despite all the talk about net-zero emissions, wind, solar and biomass collectively amounted to just a few per cent of the total energy task.

As for gas, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission released a gas inquiry interim report in January which forecasts a 12 per cent shortfall in supply for the east coast this year, although the problems may really start about 2027 or so. The commission then makes the far from surprising suggestion that governments could reduce the barriers faced by producers seeking to bring new gas supply to market.

But governments and environmentalists have reacted to the obvious problems by doubling down on discouraging the industry. The federal government reacted to price increases for gas by instituting a mixture of price controls and reserving gas for domestic consumers. As a result, producers including Senex Energy, Beach Energy, Cooper Energy and ExxonMobil have stalled or put under review proposed investment in new gas supplies.

In addition, environmental activism and the late-2022 court decision which required Santos to consult more extensively with indigenous groups over the $4.7 billion Barossa project it plans north of the Tiwi Islands (north of Darwin), have imposed delays of up to two years on a range of gas projects. To top off all of this, a project to build an LNG gas import terminal at Newcastle in NSW, which could have supplied 80 per cent of the state’s needs, was axed in early February, with the South Korean developers citing volatility in gas markets. Another proposed LNG import plant in Victoria is facing endless delays in approvals.

Investment in green energy projects may revive of course, but there is a long way to go and there are still the major problems of whether intermittent power can replace coal plants, and of dismantling all the barriers blocking gas development. Australia’s much-vaunted energy transition may simply mean switching to no power at all.

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Sunday, February 19, 2023



Dem lawmakers push ban on gas-powered lawn mowers, chainsaws to curb ‘climate pollution’

I hope they succeed with this. Not because of the climate but because of the noise. These small motor devices create an infernal racket when used and stopping the noise is very difficult. Silent electrical versions would greatly increase the amenity of life in most suburbs

Two Minnesota Democratic lawmakers are proposing a pair of bills that would significantly impact the state’s backyards and neighborhood ice rinks in an effort to combat climate change.

State Reps. Jerry Newton and Heather Edelson, members of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, introduced legislation on Monday that would block the sale of common landscaping appliances like lawnmowers and chainsaws as well ice-resurfacing machines such as Zambonis, requiring that only electric battery versions be sold in the state starting Jan. 1, 2025.

The ban on lawn and garden equipment would include any machine that uses “a spark ignition engine rated at or below 19 kilowatts or 25 gross horsepower.” Commonly used landscaping tools like lawnmowers, leaf blowers, hedge clippers, chainsaws, lawn edgers, string trimmers and brush cutters would all be prohibited by that definition.

The measure follows a Democrat-backed clean energy bill signed into law by Gov. Tim Walz that requires electricity production be 80% carbon-free by 2030 and 100% by 2040. Republicans labeled it the “blackout bill.”

“DFLers are committed to taking action on climate – unchecked climate pollution threatens Minnesota’s future,” House Speaker Melissa Hortman said after lawmakers passed the bill, according to Alpha News. “Now is the time to take bold action and ensure Minnesotans have the healthy climate and clean energy future they deserve.”

Some Democratic-run cities, like New York City, Los Angeles, Seattle and others, are also pushing for bans on fuel-burning appliances, such as gas stoves, over concerns that they pose a health risk and affect the climate. While 56% of Democrat voters would support the ban, according to a Morning Consult poll, 56% of Republicans oppose it, 39% of independents would favor it, and others slightly lean toward yes or don’t know.

In 2021, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law a ban on selling gas-powered leaf blowers and lawnmowers, starting in 2024. The California Air Resources Board also decided that all new vehicles in the state will run on electric batteries by 2035.

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Democrats Coming for Your Car -- and much else

Traditional trappings of the middle-class American dream — a car, or several of them, in every garage, the freedom that comes with inexpensive air travel, modern, efficient appliances in every kitchen, a hamburger on every backyard grill and grills that become bigger and better — are under assault from liberal Democrats and their allies who argue that a world threatened by climate change cannot afford such luxuries anymore.

Absent legislation forcing people to abandon such niceties — legislation that has so far largely eluded the activists — Democrats are calling more and more for regulatory efforts. New regulations are directly or indirectly driving up the prices of such luxuries to the point that consumers are forced, even though such luxuries might still be legal, to abandon them in the name of frugality. It’s another sneaky strategy by the Biden Democrats.

Take that shiny new car in every garage. This week, the Kelly Blue Book is reporting that the average monthly payment for a new car has reached $777, double what it was in 2019 and more than 15 percent of the median take-home pay for American households. Used cars, if one can find them, are at an incredible average of $544 a month — not much cheaper than new cars.

Much of those price increases can be attributed to semiconductor shortages from the pandemic and higher interest rates, but there are few signs that prices are going back down anytime soon even as demand tapers off. The Biden administration’s relentless push to get Americans to adopt electric vehicles, which are 25 percent more expensive than gas-powered jitneys on average, is not going to make things any better.

While Mr. Biden’s climate alarmists insist they aren’t coming for anyone’s gas appliances, the reality is that they are relying on local jurisdictions to do it for them. Encouraged by federal regulators, hundreds of cities across the country have been passing new regulations that outlaw the installation of gas-powered appliances such as cooktops, water heaters, and clothes dryers in new homes.

Natural gas appliances are almost always cheaper to operate than electric ones, by as much as 30 percent in many cases. Yet the antipathy of the greenies extends even to the food cooked on backyard grills — gas or otherwise — by many hungry Americans. Recent years have seen a concerted push to wean Americans from meat and steer them toward plant-based options, also in the name of combating climate change.

Factory farms that produce meat and the economic activity associated with them, we are constantly reminded, produce far more greenhouse gasses than farms producing plant crops. Meantime air travel is shaping up to be another front in the climate-motivated war on American freedoms. With air travel only now recovering from the Covid stoppages, more and more people are hoping to get out into the wider world once again.

Environmental groups want to make it harder. In January, the Sierra Club and other groups sued the Environmental Protection Agency, seeking a crack down on airplane emissions. The Sierra Club has other options in mind when it comes to air travel. Fly less, it tells people, and take vacations closer to home. Airlines should remove first- and business-class seating on planes. Raise taxes on airline tickets and fuel. Stop building new airports.

“Flying will have to get more expensive, so as to reflect its environmental costs,” the Sierra Club promises. We’ll see how that sells on the hustings. For few of the luxuries and comforts to which Americans — and growing middle classes around the globe — have become accustomed in recent decades are safe from the climate lobby. Unless lawmakers begin to rein in the excesses of this cult, the march of progress is likely to stall.

What gets us is not only the policies the Democrats are pursuing. It’s the strategy of seeking such policies in the face of the failure of Congress to enact them democratically. It’s a moment to remember a principle of constitutional law, which goes something like: The failure of Congress to prohibit something doesn’t mean Congress approves. Democrats regulating outcomes Congress won’t enact is outrageous. What is Congress anyhow, chopped liver?

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Solar farms and the trouble with net zero

Say it quietly, especially when there’s a Green listening: but there’s one certainty about Net Zero 2050. It won’t happen. As any honest MP will admit in private, it is stymied not only by the need to keep the lights on following the Ukraine energy shortage, but also for another reason: because no democratic majority will tolerate the cutbacks in their quality of life necessary to maintain the headlong dash to carbon neutrality in 27 years’ time.

Unfortunately there is also another certainty about Net Zero. While it remains official policy, however quixotic, corporate capital is being handed a heaven-sent opportunity at the expense of you, me and the country we live in. If you don’t believe this, ask anyone who lives in rural East Anglia, between Newmarket and Soham.

The worries of residents, who don’t fancy living in an energy factory, count for little

Three years ago, a company called Sunnica proposed taking some 2,500 acres – four square miles – of good agricultural land in the area out of production and submerging much of it in photovoltaic plastic. Few people liked the plan. Several farmers refused to participate. And the three local authorities concerned with planning and the environment in the area, West Suffolk, East Cambridgeshire and Suffolk County, were viscerally opposed.

So was that the end of the scheme? Certainly not. In this era of Net Zero, any solar scheme over 50 MW counts as a National Significant Infrastructure Project, or NSIP. This means the final decision is made, not by local people, but those in Whitehall. The worries of residents, who don’t fancy living in an energy factory, count for little. The same goes for farmers who prefer the idea of potatoes under their land to solar panels above it.

In Newmarket, the local Tory MP, Lucy Frazer, is understandably up in arms. Rishi Sunak himself has said that on his watch ‘we will not lose swathes of our best farmland to solar farms.’ We will see.

Such cases matter, since they are not isolated events. Sunnica is by no means the only organisation seeking to get the green light for plonking its profitable panels on to farm land. There is a similar scheme at Longfield near Chelmsford, in Essex, and yet another at Mallard Pass near Stamford in Lincolnshire. Both schemes are opposed by locals. So why the push to put panels on farm land? To the argument that brownfield sites would work just as well, the response put forward is usually the same: that land is too dear, and the scheme might struggle to break even unless developers are empowered forcibly to buy up virgin fields at agricultural prices.

All this should worry anyone, wherever they live. For one thing, food security is a problem in an overcrowded country, as is the lack of open non-industrial space: sacrificing both these things for the sake of ticking a box on some official green audit is first-rate folly.

For another, all this looks like a misuse of the NSIP regime. Fast-track central planning is all very well for government-initiated projects such as major roads or railways, or large single installations concerned with things like water or energy. It is far more questionable to use it when private companies are seeking to implement widespread land-use change over large areas of countryside which they happen to fancy.

Indeed, it’s worth taking a closer look at some of the companies involved. Sunnica, the organisation trying to muscle in on rural Suffolk, is a British company, but its structure is rather complex. It is actually a joint venture involving two established solar developers, Tribus Energy and PS Renewables. The latter of these is, according to the firm itself, the ‘customer facing name for Padero Solaer’ – a joint venture between a Spanish and British company. Solaer, the Spanish part of this enterprise, is a sub-subsidiary of Swedish investment vehicle EQT AB.

Should such firms be given priority over the views of locals? Clearly not. Yet if the scheme is given the green light, it will show what really matters in this debate: the race to Net Zero.

It is hard not to conclude that there is something wrong with the government’s worthy if foolish policy of carbon neutrality by 2050. At least as regards solar power, it is not working for the benefit of the people who live here – and certainly not for those who look after our land – but instead seems to favour a more international clientele.

What do we need to do? That the whole Net Zero idea needs urgent rethinking – and green activists need facing – is obvious. Meanwhile, however, the government must take steps to limit the use of the NSIP regime to genuinely home-grown projects. Not for the first time, the government seems to have allowed itself to be taken for a ride for fear of upsetting the green lobby. It is high time we stopped this process.

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A bleak future for Australia's energy supply

The energy crisis that became real for many Australians in 2022 is at severe risk of becoming the norm.

Last month, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission released their latest gas inquiry report which gave a stark warning to Australia’s leaders about the perilous state of the east coast’s energy security.

The report stated that investment in gas production is urgently required to avoid shortages and blackouts along Australia’s east coast:

‘Without additional gas supply, transportation, and storage infrastructure, there remain significant risks to domestic energy security over the medium to longer term. It is important therefore that governments continue to support the efficient, competitive, and timely development of new sources of supply and infrastructure.’

Despite this, the federal government has continued to pursue policies that deter investment in the gas sector, causing higher prices through lower supply.

The Albanese government’s announcement of reforms to the ‘safeguard mechanism’ to, effectively, re-introduce the carbon tax first pursued by the Rudd and Gillard governments, which was subsequently and overwhelmingly rejected by Australians a decade ago, is a prime example.

The reformed ‘safeguard mechanism’ will mandate that certain businesses purchase carbon credits from other businesses that emit below their regulated levels. If they cannot trade, they must pay a levy to the federal government.

Recent analysis by the Institute of Public Affairs has identified that 88 per cent of the facilities that this policy targets are in our critical resources and manufacturing sectors, and over eight in ten facilities are located in regional Australia.

BHP has indicated that Australia’s current and proposed energy policy settings will bring forward, by four years, the closure of its Mt Arthur coal mine in the Hunter Valley, which will only further increase power prices.

The Albanese government has pointed to a 205 million tonne reduction of CO2 emissions by the end of the decade, which will be equivalent to just 0.08 per cent of global carbon emissions in that period. All this economic pain, for little to no environmental gain.

Fortunately for mainstream Australians, the Federal Opposition have come out and publicly opposed this policy, which means the federal government will now have to deal with the Greens and the crossbench.

However, the Greens have publicly and repeatedly stated that their support for the reforms hinges on the federal government banning of all future coal and gas projects in Australia.

IPA research has identified such demands would see the cancellation of 86 coal and gas projects currently in the construction pipeline, 473,000 new jobs located in regional Australia foregone and up to $268.5 billion in direct and indirect economic activity squandered.

This latest energy policy proposal from the federal government follows hot on the heels of the Prime Minister’s emergency sitting of parliament to rush through a price cap on the domestic coal and gas supply.

The Prime Minister claimed without these measures, household energy bills would rise $230 per year over and above the already record increases we all face.

Unsurprisingly, the move to cap the price of gas saw a number of energy retailers cease taking on new customers, along with increasing their prices, as they struggled to secure supply from producers.

Of course, this was entirely predictable. When you artificially limit a company’s ability to get a return on investment, through a carbon tax or restricted revenue, it naturally makes them less likely to invest in the production of gas.

The policy settings being pursued by the Albanese government are diametrically opposed to the advice of Australia’s energy market experts and participants. The bottom line is, a further limited gas supply leaves everyday Australians with higher household energy bills.

These policies will also impact Australia’s trade revenue, domestic manufacturing capabilities, domestic energy generation capabilities, employment opportunities, and the development of regional Australia. Again, all for minimal future environmental gain.

Australia’s current energy crisis is entirely of our own making. It has been caused by deliberate policy decisions by our leaders and it is mainstream Australians who are paying the price daily.

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Friday, February 17, 2023



New debate over the future of fossil fuels

The global policy consensus on the future of energy is clear: Fossil fuels are done, finished, peaking, on the way out and never to return once their 100-year role as the engine of human progress has been reduced to net-zero by 2050. That, at least, is the general thrust of the 2023 edition of the BP Energy Outlook released last week based on BP’s carbon control policy models.

The BP outlook is short but densely speculative, and not particularly convincing one way or another. The outcomes are based on simulated future energy environments “dominated by four trends: declining role for hydrocarbons, rapid expansion in renewables, increasing electrification, and growing use of low-carbon hydrogen” along with a “central role for carbon capture and removal” — all directed and subsidized by governments.

But: Could it be that the massive effort to transform the global energy system is working against the best interests of humankind? That’s the question now being debated on the sidelines of the great transition between two climate policy wonks who have been branded by greens and some mainstream media as members of the climate “denier” community.

The debate broke out last week when Roger Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado — and an effective long-time critic of much official and media-driven climate science and policy — wrote a critical review of a 2022 book by Alex Epstein that challenges the prevailing view that carbon-emitting energy sources must be purged from the global energy system. The book’s title says it all: Fossil Future: Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas — Not Less.

Even though Pielke and Epstein have clearly stated that they believe climate change is taking place, both are ranked as climate disinformationists and/or deniers. On DeSmog’s “Disinformation Database” their respective breaches of climate orthodoxy are documented at length. (Full disclosure: DeSmog once described the editor of this page thusly — “Terry Corcoran: King of Canadian Climate Change Deniers,” a title of which I have apparently been stripped.)

In his book, Epstein sets his theme in the opening sentences when he writes “I am going to make the case that more fossil fuel use will actually make the world a far better place, a place where billions more people will have the opportunity to flourish, including: to pull themselves out of poverty, to have a chance to pursue their dreams, and — this will likely seem craziest of all — to experience higher environmental quality and less danger from climate.”

Through a few graphs and 400+ pages of argument and exposition, Epstein portrays the soaring use of cost-effective fossil fuels over the past century as the driving force that made possible what he sees as the “flourishing” of humans on an otherwise inhospitable planet. “Save the world,” he says, “with fossil fuels.”

On its release early in 2022, Fossil Future received contradictory pro and con reviews. Pielke joins the debate late. He argues that Epstein’s claims about the transformative benefits of fossil fuels over the past century are based on faulty logic. Above all, he says, Epstein “conflates correlation with causation and also means with ends.” It is undeniable, writes Pielke, that global development since the Industrial Revolution has been powered almost completely by fossil fuels. But that correlation does not lead to the conclusion that the global energy future must also be based on fossil fuels.

As an example of how a country can flourish with reduced fossil fuel consumption Pielke cites France, which slashed its oil and coal consumption since the 1960s by shifting to nuclear power. Good point, although Epstein also happens to be a big proponent of nuclear energy, which he says “has demonstrated by far the most potential as an alternative to fossil fuels.” He argues that nuclear power, while filled with promise, has been “criminalized” by activists.

Pielke also accuses Epstein of ignoring the downsides of fossil fuel dependence, including “pollution, insecurity, and economic risks.” While Epstein in his book acknowledges such “downsides,” he does not see them as a justification for fossil fuel elimination. Just because economic activity does not properly price and account for all fossil fuel externalities such as climate change does not mean that “the government should take action to make fossil fuels more expensive.”

Which takes us to what seems like the real heart of the Epstein/Pielke clash. In Fossil Future, Epstein outlines his view that solar, wind, biofuels, carbon sequestration, electric vehicles and other state-mandated projects cannot offer the kind of energy system the world needs. Moreover, the externalities caused by moving to zero fossil fuels will exceed the externalities of their continued use. Pielke, on the contrary, is inclined to support the official global policy objectives as outlined by the International Energy Agency and the BP Energy Outlook mentioned earlier.

Pielke, in other words, has confidence in the need for and likely effectiveness of government-mandated decarbonization through cost-effective alternatives to fossil fuels. Epstein sees no such benefits and warns that fossil fuels are the key to human flourishing in the future.

In response to texted messages, Epstein said Pielke and other critics present a “significant distortion of my view and then argue against it.” He said he will be formally responding to Pielke and others in a few weeks. Let the debate continue!

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India asks utilities to not retire coal-fired power plants till 2030

India has asked utilities to not retire coal-fired power plants till 2030 due to a surge in electricity demand, according to a federal power ministry notice reviewed by Reuters, just over two years after committing to eventually phase down use of the fuel.

The energy-hungry nation said last May it plans to reduce power generation from least 81 coal-fired plants over the next four years, but the proposal did not involve shutting down any of its 179 coal power plants. India has not set a formal timeline for phasing down coal use.

"It is advised to all power utilities not to retire any thermal (power generation) units till 2030 and ensure availability of units after carrying out renovation and modernisation activities if required," the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) said in a notice dated Jan. 20 sent to officials in the federal power ministry.

The CEA, which acts as an advisor to the ministry, cited a December meeting where the federal power minister had asked that ageing thermal power plants not be retired, and to instead increase the lifetime of such units "considering (the) expected demand scenario".

India, the world's second largest-consumer, producer and importer of coal, fell short of its 2022 renewable energy addition target by nearly a third. Coal accounts for nearly three-quarters of annual electricity generation.

Power demand in India has surged in the recent months due to extreme weather, rising household use or electricity as more companies allowing employees to work from home, and a pickup in industrial activity after easing of coronavirus-related restrictions.

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Pakistan to quadruple domestic coal-fired power, move away from gas

Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming years, its energy minister told Reuters on Monday, as it seeks to ease a crippling foreign-exchange crisis.

A shortage of natural gas, which accounts for over a third of the country's power output, plunged large areas into hours of darkness last year. A surge in global prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and an onerous economic crisis had made LNG unaffordable for Pakistan.

"LNG is no longer part of the long-term plan," Pakistan Energy Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan told Reuters, adding that the country plans to increase domestic coal-fired power capacity to 10 gigawatts (GW) in the medium-term, from 2.31 GW currently.

Pakistan's plan to switch to coal to provide its citizens reliable electricity underscores challenges in drafting effective decarbonisation strategies, at a time when some developing countries are struggling to keep lights on.

Despite power demand increasing in 2022, Pakistan's annual LNG imports fell to the lowest levels in five years as European buyers elbowed out price-sensitive consumers.

"We have some of the world's most efficient regasified LNG-based power plants. But we don't have the gas to run them," Dastgir said in an interview.

The South Asian nation, which is battling a wrenching economic crisis and is in dire need of funds, is seeking to reduce the value of its fuel imports and protect itself from geopolitical shocks, he said.

Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank have fallen to $2.9 billion, barely enough to cover three weeks of imports.

"It's this question of not just being able to generate energy cheaply, but also with domestic sources, that is very important," Dastgir said.

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Skepticism from an Australian Leftist politician

‘We won’t get to net-zero emissions in this country, or indeed the world, without the resources sector, without gas, and even without coal. You cannot build a wind turbine without coal.’ Angus Taylor, perhaps? Ted O’Brien? Tony Abbott? Nope.

The words were uttered this week by Labor’s Minister for Resources Madeleine King, clearly one of the sharper tools in Labor’s climate shed. Speaking on Sky News, she went on to elaborate that gas will be needed ‘in the short-term, medium-term and long-term’ to ensure ‘energy security’.Former Labor MP Jennie George concurred, warning that ‘winter will be a testing time’ as she lambasted the poor planning of successive energy ministers, the virtue-signalling of governments and asked, where are the ‘safeguards’ for our energy future?

Er… there aren’t any. Not that such revelations or insights are news to readers of this magazine. For the best part of the last fifteen years, The Spectator Australia has been virtually alone among the mainstream media in refusing to be captivated by the climate change cult. More importantly, thanks to the great work of so many of our writers, including Ian Plimer, Mark Lawson, Alan Moran and many, many others, we have consistently pointed out the folly of the climate mantra and the extraordinary danger of jeopardising our God-given supplies of cheap and reliable energy sources.

Indeed, in this week’s issue Mark Lawson warns of the ‘dark ages’ that lie ahead as we rush towards Labor’s (and the Coalition’s) ludicrous net-zero goals. As Mark writes, ‘The events of the past few weeks have brought Australia’s energy future into sharp focus – we won’t have one.’

Sadly, the one resource Australia does seem to have an over-abundance of is stupidity, fuelled by Marxist propaganda and abetted by a political class that is either deeply cynical or unbelievably gullible. Take your pick. This stupidity has manifested itself in perfectly good coal-fired power stations literally being blown to smithereens to the applause of fools and shysters. The last decade has seen our energy infrastructure dismantled at breath-taking speed accompanied by a blizzard of false promises about new technologies and to the tune of ever-soaring household bills.

For a time, the Coalition held out against the madness, with the two most pertinent, honest and accurate words ever uttered about climate change doomsday alarmism having been uttered by former prime minister Tony Abbott: ‘It’s crap.’

Indeed, although she won’t thank us for pointing this out, Ms King’s position is now arguably closer to Mr Abbott’s than to Mr Albanese’s. Go to the bottom line – something our political class seem rarely capable of doing – and you have to answer the following question: will Australia abandoning its fossil-fuel energy sources prevent the planet from a climate apocalypse by the end of this century? Yes or no? Clearly, the fanatical climate zealots believe this to be the case, and many on the Left, including the Greens, either also believe this nonsense or more likely cynically pander to it. Hence the urgency of the alarmist position – close all coal and gas now! Swap to electric vehicles now! Stop eating meat! Eat bugs! Shut down all industry and farming!

These ideas are the logical end point of the Bowen/Wong/Albanese/Bandt/Thunberg/Ardern/Biden/UK/EU position, hence the hysterical reductions targets being touted on everything from carbon to nitrogen to methane to meat to household gas heaters; the pointless and ludicrously expensive advocacy of electric vehicles; the hyperventilating around hydrogen; and so on. But a more rational mindset recognises that there are two parts to that bottom-line question: firstly, is there actually a doomsday armageddon on the horizon? (Answer, no). And secondly, could anything Australia does in reducing carbon emissions in isolation ever have any measurable impact on the world’s climate? (Answer again, no.) Remove the urgency demanded of the doomsday scenario and/or recognise the limited role Australia can ever play and you must arrive at what we shall (cheekily) call the Abbott/King position, which can be summarised as, ‘Transition if you must, but there is no need to panic – and whatever you do, don’t dispense of the energy resources we are blessed with’.

This was of course, broadly, the Coalition’s position (approved overwhelming by the electorate in 2019) until it was disgracefully jettisoned by former prime minister Scott Morrison and his accomplice Barnaby Joyce, backed, laughably, by what was once the mainstream conservative press in Australia. The great pity is that the majority of the Australian electorate is, whether recognising it or not, of this same opinion.

Alas, because Australians are by nature fairly trusting (although this was sorely tested during Covid), it is likely that we will undergo a period of energy poverty and a dramatic downturn in our prosperity and all that that entails – both here and abroad – before the public wakes up to the disaster that the political class are deliberately inflicting upon us.

Could Resource Minister Madeleine King, ironically, be Labor’s canary in the climate change coal mine?

Or will she swiftly be brought into line and forced to start whistling to Labor’s alarmist, socialist and fanatical climate change tune?

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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